Uncertainty, Prediction, and Risk Assesment of Critical Events
January 2004 until December 2008
Jürgen Kropp
PIK number / OEH

Prediction and assessment of extreme events are still open questions of research, since traditional statistics are often based on the assumption of independent and Gaussian distributed variables. However, it is well-known that extremeness is determined by the degree of change and frequency of occurrence, both of them governed by, e.g. long-term phenomena. UPRACE utilizes novel concepts from stochastics and statistical physics for a better understanding of these phenomena. The research concept of UPRACE performs time series analysis of hydrological and meteorological data by directing emphasis on the detection and attribution problem (e.g. extreme events). Objective tests for trends and measures for spatial correlations, e.g. for river basins, shall be developed. By means of stochastic models UPRACE aims to define and test the degree of predictability; the level of confidence in forecasts of extreme events will be specified.