Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation
November 2013 until October 2017
351.689 € funded by EU - European Union: FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage
Alexander Popp
PIK number / OEH

LUC4C will advance our fundamental knowledge of the climate change - land use change interactions, and develop a framework for the synthesis of complex earth system science into guidelines that are of practical use for policy and societal stakeholders. Policies in support of climate change mitigation through land management, and the societal demand for other services from terrestrial ecosystems are currently rather disconnected, in spite of the large potential for co-benefits, but also the need for trade-offs. To identify the beneficial and detrimental aspects of alternative land use options, we will improve and evaluate a suite of modelling approaches at different levels of integration and complexity in order to (i) discern key elements of land-use that have the largest effect on climate, including dependencies across time and space, (ii) develop innovative methods to better quantify the dynamic interactions between land use and the climate system at different time and space scales, and (iii) deliver a portfolio of best practice guidelines for the identification of trade-offs, benefits or adverse effects of land-based mitigation policy options across different scenarios.

In particular, LUC4C aims to: 1. enhance our ability to understand the societal and environmental drivers of land use and land cover change (LULCC) relevant to climate change; 2. assess regional and global effects of different mitigation policies and adaptation measures within alternative socio-economic contexts; 3. quantify how the LULCC-climate change interplay affects regional vs. global, and biophysical vs. biogeochemical ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, and how the relative magnitude of these interactions varies through time; 4. advance our ability to represent LULCC in climate models; 5. assess LULCC-climate effects on multiple land ecosystem services and analyse these in relation to other societal needs that provide either a synergy or trade-off to climate mitigation and adaptation.

With PBL PIK leads WP 6 "Integrated Assessment and Synthesis". PIK participate with the IAM ReMIND-MAgPIE to assess land-use-based mitigation potentials and its trade-offs with other sectors and sustainability goals. Furthermore, PIK contributes to the the land-use change analysis in WP2 and WP5 with its MAgPIE model.