Support for the Earth and Human Systems Modelling Intercomparison Project of the Earth Commission
As part of the Global Commons Alliance, the Earth Commission is a global team of scientists with the mission to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet. Its working group 1, the Earth and Human Systems Modelling Intercomparison Project, aims to assess and model key interactions that regulate the state of the planetary and human systems. An integral aspect of the work concerns the identification of tipping elements in the Earth system. They are characterized by nonlinear feedback mechanisms, which translate minor external forcing into large qualitative changes in the system's state once a critical threshold is passed. The resulting self-driven transition is likely irreversible and implies that commitments today have far-reaching effects. Consequently, the definition of targets for a safe and stable planet requires a comprehensive understanding of these Earth system components and quantification of their associated tipping points. To contribute to this assessment, we work towards systematic monitoring of Earth system model outputs, allowing to create updated maps of tipping elements in a standardized way. Moreover, we will investigate the effects of long-term commitments for different possible pathways. Finally, a dedicated tipping model intercomparison project (TIPMIP) protocol shall facilitate a community effort to establish improved data availability in the future.
