Climate change risk to price stability: Higher average temperatures increase inflation
05/24/2023 - Increased average temperatures could drive up annual food and headline inflation by up to 1.18 percent by 2035, a new ECB working paper with PIK expertise shows. This effect persists over 12 months in rich and poor countries alike, making climate change an important economic factor for price stability.
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EU border tax on CO2 offers huge opportunity to tackle climate change
04/24/2023 - A price on CO2 emissions from products entering the EU offers unprecedented opportunities in the fight against global warming. But success hinges on how low- and middle-income countries will be engaged. That is the result of a research published today in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.
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PIK congratulates fellow Yuri Maistrenko on Humboldt Research Award
03/21/2023 - Yuri Maistrenko from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences is a guest scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and has now been awarded the Humboldt Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation at a festive ceremony in Bamberg.
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Advances, Applications, Perspectives: NDA23 Conference
03/20/2023 - Around 300 scientists from various fields of complex systems science gathered for three days at the Nonlinear Data Analysis and Modeling Conference (NDA) to exchange ideas and knowledge on the latest developments and applications in complex systems science. The conference was organized on the special occasion of the 70th birthday of Jürgen Kurths, former head and currently senior advisor of the Complexity Science research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK.
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Less predictable rainfall important for Maya decline
03/17/2023 - Reduced predictability of seasonal rainfall might have played an important role in the disintegration of Classic Maya societies about 1100 years ago. That is the result of a new study of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Potsdam University. The research team studied variations in stable isotope signatures from a stalagmite that was collected in a cave near Uxbenka/Belize, an important archaeological site in the former heartland of the Maya. The carbon and oxygen isotope ratios are sensitive recorders of local and regional rainfall dynamics.
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From forest resilience to power grids to loss and damage: PIK Research Days
02/22/2023 - Hot topics were presented in talks and discussed among scientists at the annual ‘Research Days’ of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Virtually all members of the institute gathered for the 2-day exchange, the first one which happened face-to-face after the online-only times of COVID pandemic. Once a year, the entire institute comes together to update one another on its findings, new methods and challenges – and to discuss new frontiers to be investigated.
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Earlier, higher, smaller: Climate change alters glacial lake outburst floods
02/16/2023 - Due to global warming, flood-like water outbursts from ice-dammed glacial lakes worldwide happen earlier in the year and originate from higher areas. This is shown on the basis of observation data since 1900 by a new study with the participation of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which is published in the scientific journal Nature. At the same time, however, these so-called outbursts are also becoming smaller.
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Amazon heat drives Tibet temperatures: climate tipping elements connected half around the globe
01/26/2023 - While the Amazon rainforest and the Tibetan Plateau sit on different sides of the globe, scientists now discovered that changes in the South American ecosystem can trigger changes in the vicinity of the Himalayas. Both are tipping elements, hence large-scale elements of the planetary machinery that are sensitive to global warming and may shift abruptly and often irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. A new study applies the theory of complex networks to these elements and finds surprising – and worrying – long-distance linkages.
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3 out of 10 climate science papers most referred to in news and social media feature PIK authors
01/06/2023 - In a ranking of climate science papers most referred to in news and social media, no less than 3 out of the top 10 papers feature authors from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The ranking is published by the renowned 'Carbon Brief' newsletter and is based on the papers' so-called Altmetric score. While this metric is certainly not perfect, it is a good indicator to help assess public perception of climate science publications.
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Potsdam researchers amongst top 1% most cited worldwide
11/14/2022 - For the fifth year in a row, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) are among the top 1 percent of the globally most scientifically influential authors. The renowned "Highly Cited" ranking is published once a year by Clarivate Analytics' science platform Web of Science. The ranking is based on the number of times researchers are cited in other academics' works - one of the most important indicators of scientific relevance. Twelve PIK researchers are listed, just like last year, including the institute's directors, and from all research departments.
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Economic losses from hurricanes become too big to be offset by the US if warming continues
10/17/2022 - Hurricane damages can increase due to increasing global temperatures, caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Computer simulations of regional economic sectors and supply chains in the US now show that the resulting economic losses can at some point not be nationally offset under unabated warming. If too many factories and the like are hit by the hurricane and stop working, other countries will have to step in to provide the supply of goods, according to the scientists who did the study. The hurricane impacts under global warming will thus give the US an economic disadvantage, the warmer the more.
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Extreme temperatures fuel online hate speech
09/08/2022 - Temperatures above or below a feel-good window of 12-21 degrees Celsius (54-70 °F) are linked to a marked rise in aggressive online behaviour across the USA, a new study finds. Analysing billions of tweets posted on the social media platform Twitter in the USA, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found hate speech increasing across climate zones, income groups and belief systems for temperatures too hot or too cold. This indicates limits to adaptation to extreme temperatures, and sheds light on a yet underestimated societal impact of climate change: conflict in the digital sphere with implications for both societal cohesion and mental health.
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Climate Change in Southern Tanzania and Zanzibar
07/27/2022 – Climate change threatens the lives and livelihoods of over 61 million citizens in Tanzania living below the poverty line of $1.25 a day. Climate scientist Elena Surovyatkina, who leads monsoon research within the B-EPICC project at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, has observed the areas most vulnerable to climate change and lends a hand with long-term forecasts for the timing of the rainy season.
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Climate Science and Archaelogy: Fall of Mayan metropolis related to drought
07/19/2022 - The political collapse of Mayapan, the Mayan capital on the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries AD, was likely triggered by a drought that fueled social conflict, according to a new study published in Nature Communications. The findings demonstrate climate's influence on societal stability even in ancient times.
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"For a secure climate future": High-ranking guests at 30 years celebration of Potsdam Institute
06/30/2022 - High-ranking guests attended the 30th anniversary celebration of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) - from federal and Brandenburg politicians to a Nobel laureate. The institute, founded in 1992 and now employing a good 400 people, is needed more today than ever before in the worsening climate crisis, speeches said. The PIK Board of Directors thanked politicians as well as the scientists and all employees of PIK for their part in the success story.
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How global trade can help the climate
06/24/2022 - The climate policy potential of international trade rules agreed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) still has room for improvement. Policymakers should change some rules - and make greater use of others, according to an article now published in the leading scientific journal Science by experts from twelve countries, including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
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Leonie Wenz appointed to Young Academy of Sciences
06/04/2022 - Leonie Wenz from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has been awarded membership of the prestigious Young Academy of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina. Members of this important interdisciplinary platform for young scientists in German-speaking countries are elected for a period of five years. All appointees have completed an outstanding doctorate no more than seven years ago at the time of election, and have published at least one other outstanding paper.
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Precise PIK forecasts of the beginning of the monsoon help farmers in India
05/17/2022 - For the 6. year in a row, PIK-scientist Elena Surovyatkina has predicted the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Central India more than a month in advance. According to her forecast, the monsoon will begin between 14 and 18 June in Central India and Telangana and after 10 July reach Delhi. The unique forecast accounts for climate change effects, making it reliable to use for farming. It is the most awaited news for Indian farmers because the sowing and planting starts with the beginning of the rainy season.
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Amazon rainforest is losing resilience: new evidence from satellite data analysis
03/07/2022 - The Amazon rainforest is likely losing resilience, data analysis from high-resolution satellite images suggests. Resilience loss in pristine parts of the rainforest is mainly due to stress from nearby human activity, such as logging and slash-and-burn. The influence of human-caused climate change is not clearly determinable so far, but will likely matter greatly in the future. For about three quarters of the forest, the ability to recover from perturbation has been decreasing since the early 2000s, which the scientists see as a warning sign. The new evidence is derived from advanced statistical analysis of satellite data of changes in vegetation biomass.
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Potsdam Summer School 2022: Towards a Sustainable Transformation
02/22/2022 - Climate, Energy and Nature in a Changing World – with this overarching theme the Potsdam Summer School will continue the transdisciplinary and interactive series of events that has been held annually in Potsdam, Germany since 2014. It brings together talented early-career scientists and young professionals operating in the private sector, governmental agencies, and non-governmental organisations from many different parts of the world to discuss frontier research questions on future sustainable development and contribute their insights at this exceptional opportunity to foster cooperation and an interdisciplinary exchange of ideas. The call for applications is now open!
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Rainy days harm the economy
01/12/2022 - Economic growth goes down when the number of wet days and days with extreme rainfall go up, a team of Potsdam scientists finds. Rich countries are most severely affected and herein the manufacturing and service sectors, according to their study now published as cover story in the renowned science journal Nature. The data analysis of more than 1.500 regions over the past 40 years shows a clear connection and suggests that intensified daily rainfall driven by climate-change from burning oil and coal will harm the global economy.
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The Ripple Factor: Economic losses from weather extremes can amplify each other across the world
27/10/2021 - Weather extremes can cause economic ripples along our supply chains. If they occur at roughly the same time the ripples start interacting and can amplify even if they occur at completely different places around the world, a new study shows. The resulting economic losses are greater than the sum of the initial events, the researchers find in computer simulations of the global economic network. Rich economies are affected much stronger than poor ones, according to the calculations. Currently, weather extremes around the world are increasing due to greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. If they happen simultaneously or in quick succession even at different places on the planet, their economic repercussions can become much bigger than previously thought.
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Jürgen Kurths is the first German to become Fellow of the Network Science Society
7/12/2021 – Jürgen Kurths, Head of the Research Department “Complexity Science” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has been elected Fellow of the Network Science Society 2021. He is the first German scientist to receive this recognition.
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New economic model shows how our social networks could contribute to generating phenomena like inequality and business cycles
07/05/2021 - Many standard economic models assume people make perfectly rational, individual decisions. But new research suggests economic phenomena like inequality and business cycles are better explained by models which recognize that people’s decisions are affected by the decisions and the behaviors of people around them.
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Delayed monsoon in Delhi: early warning for farmers
05/27/2021 - The arrival of the monsoon in Delhi is likely to be delayed by two weeks, according to a newly developed early forecast for India’s capital. Created at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the Monsoon forecast method has been used successfully already five years in a row for Central India and has now been extended to the North-Western region. The long-term monsoon forecast that covers 40 days in advance could support government and farmers in important decision making processes and help them to better prepare for the vagaries of nature.
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Parts of Greenland may be on the verge of tipping: new early-warning signals detected
05/18/2021 - Scientists have detected new early-warning signals indicating that the central-western part of the Greenland Ice Sheet may undergo a critical transition relatively soon. Because of rising temperatures, a new study by researchers from Germany and Norway shows, the destabilization of the ice sheet has begun and the process of melting may escalate already at limited warming levels. A tipping of the ice sheet would substantially increase long-term global sea level rise.
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RD4 at vEGU21
Several scientists of RD4 present their latest research at the EGU 2021 - the annual General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), taking place online during the time period 19–30 April 2021.
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Girls' Day gives schoolgirls from all over Germany an insight into climate impact research
04/22/2021 – On Girls' Day - 'Future Prospects for Girls' this year, schoolgirls were once again given an insight into the work at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to discover career prospects in science. Due to the pandemic, this year's Girls' Day took place digitally, allowing for the first time girls from all over Germany to get to know PIK instead of usually just girls from Potsdam and Berlin. Climate researchers Ronja Reese and Constanze Werner talked about their work and answered everything the girls wanted to know in an open question session.
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Online European Geosciences Union 2021 with strong PIK participation
04/21/2021 - One of the largest scientific meetings worldwide, the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, virtually brings together geoscientists from all over the planet – amongst them many scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). From 19 to 30 April 2021, the EGU covers all disciplines of the Earth, planetary and space sciences and provides a forum where scientists, especially early-career researchers, can present their work and discuss their ideas with experts in all fields of geoscience.
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Solar panels are contagious - but in a good way: study
04/21/2021 - The number of solar panels within shortest distance from a house is the most important factor in determining the likelihood of that house having a solar panel, when compared with a host of socio-economic and demographic variables. This is shown in a new study by scientists using satellite and census data of the city of Fresno in the US, and employing machine learning. Although it is known that peer effects are relevant for sustainable energy choices, very high-resolution data combined with artificial intelligence techniques were necessary to single out the paramount importance of proximity. The finding is relevant for policies that aim at a broad deployment of solar panels in order to replace unsustainable fossil fueled energy generation.
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