The UrbGrav model explores the concept that growth is more likely to take place close to urban space, as formulated more generally by W.R. Tobler 1970 "Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things". The probability that a site becomes urban is solely given by the distance to urban areas (Rybski et al. 2013). The simplistic model involves two parameters - an exponent, determining how strongly the attraction decays with the distance, and a proportionality constant, determining the overall growth rate. The approach is capable of reproducing power-law size distribution and fractality of urban structures. Calibrating to real-world growth of cities, the model is used to extrapolate growth. Since it is statistical, it provides ensembles of trajectories.

Please contact for further information: Diego Rybski