Authors marked in bold are EPICC Scientists.


  • George, N. B., Suroatkina, E., Krishnan, R., and Kurths, J. (2021): Critical transition to monsoon in outgoing long-wave radiation: prediction of the advance of Indian Summer Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6453, Available at:
  • Ludescher, J., Meng, J. and Fan, J. (2021). Climate network and complexity based El Niño forecast for 2021. arXiv preprint. arXiv:2102.02192
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., Kurths, J., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H. (2021). Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system. Physics Reports, 896, pp.1-84. DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2020.09.00
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Li, X., Liu, W., and Chen, X. (2020). Evolution mechanism of principal modes in climate dynamics. New Journal of Physics, 22(9), 093077. Available at: 
  • Gleixner, S., Demissie, T. and Diro, G. (2020). Did ERA5 Improve Temperature and Precipitation Reanalysis over East Africa?. Atmosphere, 11(9), p.996. DOI: 10.3390/atmos11090996
  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Büntgen, U. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Setting the tree-ring record straight. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05433-w
  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Havlin S. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2020). Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. [Submitted] arXiv:1910.14642
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Liu, Y., Ali Saberi, A., Kurths, J. and Nagler, J. (2020). Universal Gap Scaling in Percolation, Nature Physics, 1-7. DOI: 10.1038/s41567-019-0783-2
  • Raghunathan, M., George, N., Unni, V., Midhun, P., Reeja, K. and Sujith, R. (2020). Multifractal analysis of flame dynamics during transition to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent combustor. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 888. DOI: 10.1017/jfm.2020.19
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Li, Z., Surovyatkina, E., Chen X., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2020). Indian Monsoon Rainfall Amount Forecast: Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits. [online] In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (p. 2374). Abstract. Available at: 
  • George, N.B., Surovyatkina, E., Krishnan, R. and Kurths J. (2020). Abrupt transition in organized convection during the monsoon onset in central India and Climate change effect. [online] In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (p. 20285). Abstract. Available at:
  • Möller, T. and Gates, L. (2020): Seasonal forecasting and the predictability of the rainy and dry seasons for Peru, Tanzania and India, [online] EGU General Assembly 2020, EGU2020-8355, Abstract. Available at: 
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ludescher, J., Li, Z., Surovyatkina, E., Chen, X., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2020). Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.06628 
  • Meng, J., Fan, J., Ludescher, J., Agarwal, A., Chen, X., Bunde, A., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. (2019). Complexity-based approach for El Niño magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(1), pp.177-183. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1917007117
  • Manoj, K., Pawar, S., Dange, S., Mondal, S., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Synchronization route to weak chimera in four candle-flame oscillators. Physical Review E, 100(6). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.100.062204
  • George, N. B., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Two Branches of Indian Summer Monsoon under Climate Change: Dynamics of Outgoing Longwave Radiation. [online] American Geophysical Union, AGU 100, 551213. Abstract. Available at:
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., and Havlin, S. (2019). Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 12,476–12,485. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084649
  • Fan, J., Zhou, D., Shekhtman, L., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Marzocchi, W., Ashkenazy, Y. and Havlin, S. (2019). Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Physical Review E, 99(4). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.042210
  • Unni, V., Gopalakrishnan, E., Syamkumar, K., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Interplay between random fluctuations and rate dependent phenomena at slow passage to limit-cycle oscillations in a bistable thermoacoustic system. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29(3), p. 031102. DOI: 10.1063/1.5088943 
  • Fan, J., Meng, J. and Saberi, A. (2019). Percolation framework of the Earth's topography. Physical Review E, 99(2). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.022304
  • Ludescher, J., Yuan, N. and Bunde, A. (2018). Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), pp.237-244. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4579-3
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ashkenazy, Y., Havlin, S. & Schellnhuber, H. (2018). Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(52), pp.E12128-E12134. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1811068115


Hydrology & Water Resources

  • Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Lobanova, A., Vega-Jácome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W. and Bronstert, A. (2020): Rain for Peru and Ecuador (RAIN4PE). V. 1.0. GFZ Data Serv. [In review]
  • Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Lobanova, A., Vega-Jácome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Aybar, C. and Bronstert, A. (2020): A novel high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset for Peruvian and Ecuadorian watersheds – development and hydrological evaluation. Journal of Hydrometeorology. [Submitted]
  • Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Vega-Jácome, F. and Bronstert, A. (2020). Towards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration: a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Peru. Hydrological Sciences Journal. DOI:
  • Mishra, V., Shah, H., Rivas López, M.R., Lobanova, A. and Krysanova, V. (2020). Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected change of mean and high flow in Godavari River basin?. Climatic Change, 163(3), 1187-1205. DOI:
  • Zipper, S., Jaramillo, F., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Cornell, S., Gleeson, T., Porkka, M., Häyhä, T., Crépin, A., Fetzer, I., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Matthews, N., Ricaurte‐Villota, C., Kummu, M., Wada, Y. and Gordon, L. (2020). Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales. Earth's Future, 8(2). DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001377
  • Aybar, C., Fernández, C., Huerta, A., Lavado, W., Vega, F. and Felipe-Obando, O. (2019). Construction of a high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset for Peru from 1981 to the present day. Hydrological Sciences Journal, pp.1-16. DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1649411



  • Zarei, A., Chemura, A., Gleixner, S., Hoff, H. (2021): Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania A Ecological Indicators 125, 107600. Available at:
  • Arumugam P., Chemura A., Schauberger B., Gornott C. (2021) Remote Sensing Based Yield Estimation of Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Using Gradient Boosted Regression in India. Remote Sensing; 13(12):2379.
  • Schauberger, B., Makowski, D., Tamara, B.-A., Julien, B., Ciais, P.:  No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards. - Accepted for: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
  • Chemura, A., Mudereri, B., Wolde, A., Gornott, C. (in press): Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia. - Accepted for: Scientific Reports. DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4
  • Tarakini, G., Chemura, A., Tarakini, T., Musundire, R. (in press): Drivers of diversity and community structure of bees in an agroecological region of Zimbabwe. - Accepted for: Ecology and Evolution. DOI:10.22541/au.159904087.74071245
  • Zarei, A., Chemura, A., Gleixner, S., Hoff, H. (2021): Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania. - Accepted for: Ecological Indicators, 125, 107600. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107600
  • Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Makowski, D. and Gornott, C. (2020). Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors. Scientific Reports, 10(1). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-76315-8
  • Arumugam, P., Chemura, A., Schauberger, B. and Gornott, C. (2020). Near Real-Time Biophysical Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Yield Estimation to Support Crop Insurance Implementation in India. Agronomy, 10(11), p.1674. DOI: 10.3390/agronomy10111674
  • Dhamija, V., Shukla, R., Gornott, C. and Joshi, P. (2020). Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India. Sustainability, 12(19), p.8256. DOI: 10.3390/su12198256
  • Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Gleixner, S. and Gornott, C. (2020). Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, 108154. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108154
  • Schauberger, B., Jägermeyr, J. and Gornott C. (2020) A systematic review of local to regional yield forecasting approaches and frequently used data resources. European Journal of Agronomy, 120, 126153. DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2020.126153
  • Shukla, R., Agarwal, A., Gornott, C., Sachdeva, K. and Joshi, P. (2019). Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya. Scientific Reports, 9(1). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56931-9
  • Brüssow, K., Gornott, C., Faße, A. and Grote, U. (2019). The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. Climatic Change, 157(3-4), pp.545-563. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02581-9
  • Graef, F., Mutabazi, K., Sieber, S., Asch, F., Makoko, B., Bonatti, M., Brüntrup, M., Gornott, C., Herrmann, L., Herrmann, R., Kaburire, L., Kahimba, F., Kimaro, A., Kuntosch, A., König, H., Lagwen, P., Lana, M., Lambert, C., Levy, C., Löhr, K., Maeda, C., Mbwana, H., Mchau, D., Mnimbo, M., Munder, S., Mwinuka, L., Ngwenya, P., Nickson, E., Nkonya, E., Saidia, P., Schäfer, M., Schindler, J., Silayo, V., Uckert, G., Wambura, J. and William, L. (2018). Multi-Disciplinary North-South Collaboration in Participatory Action Research on Food Value Chains: a German-Tanzanian Case Study on Perceptions, Experiences and Challenges. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 32(4), pp.359-378. DOI: 10.1007/s11213-018-9458-7
  •  Lana, M., Vasconcelos, A., Gornott, C., Schaffert, A., Bonatti, M., Volk, J., Graef, F., Kersebaum, K. and Sieber, S. (2017). Is dry soil planting an adaptation strategy for maize cultivation in semi-arid Tanzania?. Food Security, 10(4), pp.897-910. DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0742-7   




Cross-Sectoral Capacity Building and International Mainstreaming

  • Musundire, R., Ngonyama, D., Chemura, A., Ngadze, R., Jackson, J., Matanda, M., Tarakini, T., Langton, M. and Chiwona-Karltun, L. (2021). Stewardship of Wild and Farmed Edible Insects as Food and Feed in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Perspective. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 8. DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.601386
  • Mudereri, B., Chitata, T., Chemura, A., Makaure, J., Mukanga, C. and Abdel-Rahman, E. (2021). Is the protected area coverage still relevant in protecting the Southern Ground-hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) biological niche in Zimbabwe? Perspectives from ecological predictions. GIScience & Remote Sensing, pp.1-20. DOI: 10.1080/15481603.2021.1883947
  • Shukla, R., Gleixner, S., Yalew, A., Schauberger, B., Sietz, D. and Gornott, C. (2021). Dynamic vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in the face of climate change for Ethiopia. Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5c
  • Dendorfer, J., Hoffmann, R.,  and Theine, H.: Integrating environmental issues within party manifestos: Exploring trends across European welfare states. - Accepted for: Hvinden, B., Leiren, M. D., Schoyen, M. A. (Eds.), Social Policy and Climate Change: Towards Sustainable Welfare States in Europe, Cheltenham : Edward Elgar. [Book Chapter]
  • Hoffmann, R. (in press). Umwelt, Klima und Bevölkerung. In H. Budliger (Ed.), Demografischer Wandel und Wirtschaft. Berlin: Springer Gabler.
  • Büntgen, U., Arseneault, D., Boucher, É., Churakova (Sidorova), O., Gennaretti, F., Crivellaro, A., Hughes, M., Kirdyanov, A., Klippel, L., Krusic, P., Linderholm, H., Ljungqvist, F., Ludescher, J., McCormick, M., Myglan, V., Nicolussi, K., Piermattei, A., Oppenheimer, C., Reinig, F., Sigl, M., Vaganov, E. and Esper, J. (2020). Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history. Dendrochronologia, 64, p.125757. DOI:
  • Zarei, A., Asadi, E., Ebrahimi, A., Jafari, M., Malekianc, A., Nasrabadi, H. M., Chemura, A. and Maskell, G. M. (2020). Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios. Ecological Indicators, 119, 106858. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106858
  • Vinke, K., Gabrysch, S., Paoletti, E., Rockström, J. and Schellnhuber, H. (2020). Corona and the Climate: a comparison of two emergencies. Global Sustainability, [online] 3, pp.1-7. DOI: 10.1017/sus.2020.20
  • Chemura A., Schauberger B. and Gornott C. (2020). Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana. PLoS ONE,15(6): e0229881. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229881
  • Chemura, A., Rwasoka, D., Mutanga, O., Dube, T. and Mushore, T. (2020). The impact of land-use/land cover changes on water balance of the heterogeneous Buzi sub-catchment, Zimbabwe. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 18, p.100292. DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100292
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Marzocchi, W., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Havlin, S. and Ashkenazy, Y. (2020). Scaling laws in earthquake memory for interevent times and distances. Physical Review Research, 2(1). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.013264
  • Schellnhuber, H. and Vinke, K. (2020). Corona und Klima: Auf der Suche nach der verlorenen Zeit. [online] Internationale Politik. Available at:
  • Churkina, G., Organschi, A., Reyer, C., Ruff, A., Vinke, K., Liu, Z., Reck, B., Graedel, T. and Schellnhuber, H. (2020). Buildings as a global carbon sink. Nature Sustainability, 3(4), pp.269-276. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0462-4
  • Bhardwaj, S., Irfan, M. and Muriki, S.K. (2020). Towards a climate resilient city planning. [online] In 6th International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS-6). Poster. Available at:
  • Lade, S., Steffen, W., de Vries, W., Carpenter, S., Donges, J., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Newbold, T., Richardson, K. and Rockström, J. (2019). Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability, 3(2), pp.119-128. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4
  • Hoff, H., Alrahaife, S., El Hajj, R., Lohr, K., Mengoub, F., Farajalla, N., Fritzsche, K., Jobbins, G., Özerol, G., Schultz, R. and Ulrich, A. (2019). A Nexus Approach for the MENA Region—From Concept to Knowledge to Action. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7. DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00048
  • Schmidt-Traub, G., Hoff, H. and Bernlöhr, M. (2019). SDSN Policy Brief: International spillovers and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Measuring how a country’s progress towards the SDGs is affected by actions in other countries. [online] Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Available at:
  • Bleischwitz, R., Spataru, C., VanDeveer, S., Obersteiner, M., van der Voet, E., Johnson, C., Andrews-Speed, P., Boersma, T., Hoff, H. and van Vuuren, D. (2018). Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 1(12), pp.737-743. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0173-2
  • Liu, J., Hull, V., Godfray, H., Tilman, D., Gleick, P., Hoff, H., Pahl-Wostl, C., Xu, Z., Chung, M., Sun, J. and Li, S. (2018). Nexus approaches to global sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 1(9), pp.466-476. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0135-8