5. Migration

 

Exploration of the interactions of climate-related damages in agriculture with migration dynamics as well as potentials for conflict in all partner countries

This module analyzes how the effects of climate change on agriculture, freshwater supply and human security can influence migration dynamics in Tanzania, Peru and India. In order to get a comprehensive picture of the dynamics involved in the decision to migrate, several stages of the migration cycle are considered. This includes household characteristics of migrant and non-migrant households in affected areas, decision-making processes of those who stay and those who leave as well as the outcomes of migration for the individual as well as for the receiving and sending communities.

Also, potential resource conflicts around water supply and land, for example between nomadic cattle herdsmen and sedentary farmers, are under investigation. The analysis is tailored to stakeholders’ needs as determined in the kick-off workshops that were conducted in each of the partner countries and aims to support political decision-making processes for adaptation planning.


MIGRATION AND HUMAN SECURITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE: INSIGHTS FROM ACROSS THE REGIONS

Under which circumstances can migration be an effective adaptation? Which policies enable migrants to integrate into urban labor markets and how can sending and receiving communities be supported? What are the implications of climate change on agriculture or hydrology? How does the occurrence of extreme events impact human security? These are some of the complex questions addressed in the EPICC project by a team of interdisciplinary researchers.

Contact person

Dr. Kira Vinke

EPICC Project Lead
kira.vinke[at]pik-potsdam.de


IMPROVING THE EVIDENCE BASE ON ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION: METHODOLOGICAL INSIGHTS FROM TWO META-ANALYSES

The past years have seen a steady increase in the number of quantitative studies analyzing the relationship between climate and migration. These range from case studies in highly localized settings to macro studies considering global migration flows. While the majority agrees that environmental conditions are important for human mobility, the results of the individual studies largely differ, making it difficult to ascertain whether and under which conditions climatic factors influence migration. Partly, the diversity in findings stems from differences in the data, empirical designs, and analytical methods used by different studies. Based on two ongoing meta-analysis studies, this project reviews the empirical literature on environmental migration from a methodological point of view. Meta-analytical methods systematically synthesize the evidence from quantitative studies and allow for a unified and comprehensive interpretation of existing findings while statistically controlling for between-study heterogenities. The project complements previous methodological reviews, adding a distinctive meta-analytical perspective to understand how differences in the data and research design can influence the analysis of internal and international environmental migration worldwide. It can provide unique insights into challenges and gaps that exist when it comes to analyzing and modeling environmental migration and provide guidance to researchers.

Contact person

Dr. Roman Hoffmann

Migration in Tanzania, Peru and India
roman.hoffmann[at]pik-potsdam.de


MIGRATION BEHAVIOR UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF TANZANIA, PERU AND INDIA

Special attention will be paid to the development of `climate migration hot spots´ maps in the three selected countries. Extensive engagement with stakeholders in the respective countries is intended to facilitate the co-production of knowledge aimed at improving local capacity to respond displacement related to natural hazards. In addition, the research is exploring ways to improve awareness on the nexus between displacement and climate change.

Contact person

Dr. Emanuela Paoletti
Migration in Tanzania, Peru and India - Guest Researcher
paoletti[at]pik-potsdam.de


PREDICTING MIGRATION PROBABILITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS IN TANZANIA

Identifying the climate "signal" in complex, multi-casual, and context-specific migration patterns is difficult. However, climate change has a direct influence on subsistence agriculturalist livelihoods. For resource-dependent people, altering migration and mobility decisions is identified as a one common household response to environmental stress. The aim of Ms. Blocher's doctoral research is to produce a model to predict the probability of migration in the context of climate change. To do this, migration data from a gridded panel dataset covering 2008-2015 will be assessed against environmental and climatic indicators. The core hypothesis is that migration decisions depend on household characteristics as well as environmental and climatic factors. A key goal of this work is to produce aggregate profiles of households that may migrate in the context of climate change. Through the EPICC project, these profiles will contribute evidence-based policy support to local- and national-level decision makers in Tanzania.

Related Information:

  • 03/ 2019: Julia Blocher delivered a TEDx Talk on climate change and migration, including the role of youth.
    Please find more information here.


Contact person

Julia Blocher

Migration in Tanzania, PhD Student

julia.blocher[at]pik-potsdam.de



IMPACTS OF MIGRATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF PERU

Moving away from areas with climate-related hazards can be a major life event with volatile impacts on people's well-being. Such migrations, displacements, and planned relocations strongly influence the actual and perceived fulfillment of human needs. Comprehensive assessments of the consequences of moving are scarce, yet essential to designing adequate policy interventions and planning that safeguard people’s human development prospects. This dissertation investigates how moving away from areas with climate-related hazards in Peru affects people's well-being in an observational study employing mixed-methods of data collection and analysis. Results will be situated in the larger policy discussions on “migration as adaptation” as well as on "loss and damage", and policy implications will be drawn.

Contact person

Jonas Bergmann

Migration in Peru, PhD Student
jonas.bergmann[at]pik-potsdam.de


WHY SOME PEOPLE MIGRATE AND SOME STAY IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF THE INDIAN STATE OF UTTARAKHAND

Research on the linkages between climate change and migration has focused on the number of migrants, where they will move from, and to, and what are the socio-economic consequences of migration. However, the question ‘why people move’ or conversely ‘why people stay’, even under seemingly similar conditions, is understudied. This dissertation aims to investigate this for the Indian state of Uttarakhand where both out-migration and climate change are having significant impacts on the population and where migration is also a big concern for policy making. A mix-methods approach will be applied where both qualitative data (primary) and quantitative data (secondary) will be analyzed. The findings of the dissertation aim to contribute topical scientific findings exploring climate change and migration together which can thereby be useful for decision makers and support climate change adaptation policy.

Contact person

Himani Upadhyay

Migration in India, PhD Student
himani.upadhyay[at]pik-potsdam.de



CLIMATE-INDUCED MIGRATION AND CONFLICT POTENTIALS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Mechthild Becker specializes in climate-induced migration and conflict potentials of climate change. Given her background in Political Management and Modern Indian Studies as well as her qualification as an intercultural trainer, Ms. Becker is well qualified to assist the migration team as a scientific assistant. She supports policy analysis and project-related publications and is engaged in the internal and external communication and coordination of activities. She is also actively involved in research design and presentation of findings at conferences. In her own research she focuses on gendered impacts of climate change.

Contact person

Mechthild Becker
Migration and Conflict Potentials, Scientific Assistant
mechthild.becker[at]pik-potsdam.de


Scientific advisor

Prof. Dr. Helga Weisz

Migration

helga.weisz[at]pik-potsdam.de










TERI IKI BMU

Migration and Human Security in a Changing Climate: Insights from Across the Regions