2. Climate

 

Data assembling, seasonal forecast and climate projections

This module provides seasonal meteorological predictions and makes it possible to better predict the nature, onset and withdrawal of recurring weather phenomena such as the monsoon and El Niño and associated extreme events. In addition, trends caused by anthropogenic climate change are broken down into regional scenarios.


MONSOON FORECASTING

Prior knowledge of the date of monsoon onset is of vital importance in India. More lead time for monsoon forecasts is crucial for planning agriculture, water and energy resources management. The EPICC project aims to provide Indian population with a long-term forecast of the onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) for the central part of India. The long-term forecast means 40 days in advance for the onset date, and 70 days in advance for the withdrawal date. Our earliest forecast will be spread over India for taking appropriate decisions at various levels from farmers' fields to the Government of India. 

Related information

Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2020
On the 14th of August 2020, Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina published a forecast of the withdrawal date of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2020 from the central part of India. According to the forecast the Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) is likely to withdraw from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) between 3rd and 13th of October 2020 

Onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2020
The May 8 forecast released by EPICC Monsoon researcher Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina, announced the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon in 2020 for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E) between the 18th and 26th of June 2020. The Summer Monsoon in Northern Telangana was predicted to set over between 16th and 24th of June 2020. The research group predicted delayed Monsoon onset and indeed the Northern Limit of Monsoon declared by IMD appeared over Eastern Ghats on 12th of June and resulted in rainfall in many regions in central India, however from 17-26 June, a dry spell appeared unexpectedly. The Monsoon rainfall in fact began over the Eastern Ghats on the 26 of June, confirming that the prediction of delayed Monsoon onset dates between 18th and 26th of June 2020 published by Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina was correct.

Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2019
According to Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina's Monsoon forecast released on the 9th of August 2019, the withdrawal date of the Indian Summer Monsoon for the Eastern Ghats and Telangana state was dated between the 14th and 24th of October 2019 (+/- 4 days). Due to the occurrence of the Monsoon withdrawal around the 14th and 16th of October 2019, the date of the Monsoon withdrawal was successfully forecasted  66 days in advance.

Onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2019
According to Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina's successful earliest Monsoon forecast, the Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) neared the Eastern Ghats on 18th of June, and and then on 19th of June rainfall started. On the 20th of June, the intensity of rainfall significantly increased indicating the established monsoon in this area.Therefore, her 40 days in advance prediction on 7th of May 2019 that the monsoon will set over central India between 10 -18 of June, was correct for the fourth year in a row.

Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2018
The Indian Summer Monsoon has withdrawn from the Central part of India (20N, 80E) 18th to 21st October 2018. Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina issued in her forecast on July 30, 2018, that the monsoon will withdraw from the Central part of India around 18th of October (+/- 5 days), namely between 13rd and 23rd of October 2018. Hence, her earliest forecast of the withdrawal date made 80 days in advance was correct.

What is important to note is that the forecast of monsoon withdrawal date is the only one available in India. In 2016 and 2017, the forecast showed successful predictions around 70 days in advance. In 2018, for the first time, the forecast was performed 80 days in advance.

Onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2018
According to Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina's successful earliest forecast, the Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) neared the Eastern Ghats on 9th of June, and then it embraced the region of forecast on 12th of June. Therefore, her 40 days in advance prediction on 7th May 2018, that the monsoon will set over central India on 15th June (+/- 4 days), was correct.

 

Contact persons

Prof. Dr. Elena Surovyatkina

Monsoon Forecasting

elena.surovyatkina[at]pik-potsdam.de 


Nitin Babu George

Monsoon Forecasting, PhD Student

george[at]pik-potsdam.de 



EL NIÑO FORECASTING

El Niño and La Niña episodes can cause extreme weather events like floods and droughts in Peru and other parts of the world. Our aim is to provide an automated algorithm for the forecasting of El Niño events with a pre-warning time of about one year. This algorithm was published in Ludescher et al. 2013; 2014 and has provided correct predictions since. We also aim to develop and provide new long term (around one year ahead) forecasts of El Niño events, including their onset, magnitude and impacts. Our research framework is based on complexity science and network theory.

Related information


Contact persons

Dr. Josef Ludescher

El Niño Forecasting

ludescher[at]pik-potsdam.de 


 


Dr. Jingfang Fan

System Analysis, Guest Researcher
jingfang[at]pik-potsdam.de




REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION

Climate information is a basic component of the EPICC project and of great importance for stakeholders in all three partner countries. We will work closely with the Visualization Group (→ 1. Capacity building and knowledge transfer) to provide relevant climate information from observations, seasonal forecasts and future climate scenarios. This data will also serve as a basis for modelling, predicting and analyzing river discharge ( → 3. Hydrology and Water Resources), crop yields (→ 4. Agriculture) and migration patterns (→ 5. Migration).

Seasonal forecasts will be based on statistical models (→ Monsoon and ENSO prediction) and dynamical models. In particular, we aim to deliver customized seasonal climate forecasts for India, Peru and Tanzania based on the global forecast of the German Climate Forecast System (GCFS) in close co-operation with the German Meteorological Service (DWD).

The long-term climate predictions will be based on CMIP5 and CORDEX data and be processed in accordance with ISIMIP guidelines.

Related information

Contact person

Dr. Stephanie Gleixner

Regional Climate Data Scientist

gleixner[at]pik-potsdam.de




Scientific advisors

                                                                 


TERI IKI BMU