Keynote Presentations from the 2nd
AVEC
International Summer School, Peyresq, 18-30 September 2005
Speaker: Rik Leemans
rik.leemans<at>wur.nl
Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental Sciences,
Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
Title of the talk:
Introduction to scenarios (pdf: 400KB)
Summary of the talk by Monika Bertzky: Students´
summary (pdf)
Recommended background literature on this presentation:
- Alcamo J (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments.
Environmental issue report No 24, Experts' corner report Prospects and Scenarios
No 5,
European Environment Agency, Luxembourg, pp 31.
- Davis G (2002)
Scenarios as a Tool for the 21st Century Probing the Future Conference,
Strathclyde University. (pdf: 600KB)
.
- Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2002) Proximate causes and underlying driving forces
of tropical deforestation. BioScience 52 (2) 143-150.
- Greeuw SCH, van Asselt MBA, Grosskurth J, Storms CAMH , Rijkens-Klomp N,
Rothman DS, Rotmans J (2000)
Cloudy crystal balls An assessment of recent European and global scenario
studies and models, Experts’ corner report, Prospects and scenarios No 4,
Environmental issues series No 17, EEA, Copenhagen, pp 116. (pdf: 600KB)
- Nellemann C, Kullerud L, Vistnes I, Forbes BC, Husby E, Kofinas GP, Kaltenborn
BP, Rouaud J, Magomedova M, Bobiwash R, Lambrechts C,Schei PJ, Tveitdal S,
Grřn O, Larsen TS (2001) GLOBIO
- Global methodology for mapping human impacts on the biosphere (pdf:
10,1 MB), Information and Assessment Technical Report UNEP/DEWA/TR.01-3.
- Raskin P, Banuri T, Gallopin G, Gutman, P, Hammond A, Kates R, Swart R (2002)
Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. SEI PoleStar Series
Report no. 10, Global Scenario Group, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm,
99 pp. http://www.tellus.org/seib/publications/Great_Transitions.pdf
- Rotmans J, van Asselt M, Anastasi C,Greeuw S, Mellors J, Peters S, Rothman
D, Rijkens N (2000) Visions for a sustainable Europe. Futures
32:809-831. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00033-1.
- van Vuuren D, Bakkes J (2000) GEO-2000
Alternative Policy Study for Europe and Central Asia, Information and
Assessment Technical Report UNEP/DEIA&EW/TR.99-4, RIVM 402001019, pp 129.
(pdf: 2,5MB)
- van Woerden J (ed), Mnatskanian R, Dronin N, Mohanty CRC, Witt R, Pintér
L, Langeweg Fred, Bakkes J, Velders G, Bouwman L, Leemans R, Bresser T, Bollen
J, Hilderink H (1999)
Data issues of global environmental reporting: Experiences from GEO-2000
Information and Assessment Technical Report UNEP/DEIA&EW/TR.99-3, RIVM 402001013,
pp 58. (pdf: 3,5MB)
- Wollenberg E, Edmunds D, Buck L (1999) Using scenarios to make decisions
about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of
community forests Landscape and Urban Planning
47: 65-77. doi:10.1016/S0169-2046(99)00071-7.
- UNEP (2002) Global
Environment Outlook 3 - Chapter 4, p 320-400. (pdf: 2,7MB)
http://www.grida.no/geo/geo3/english/515.htm
-
People and Connections, Global Scenarios to 2020, Public Summary, Exploring
the Future, Global Business Environment, Shell International 2002
-
Summary for Policymakers, Special Report on Emission Scenarios A Special
Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
(pdf: 800KB)
- FAO
(2002) World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 - Summary report Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, pp 106. (pdf: 1MB)
