Keynote Presentations from the AVEC International Summer School, Peyresq, 14-27 September 2003

Speaker: Stephen Sitch
stephen.sitch<at>pik-potsdam.de
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Title of the talk: Carbon cycle and global vulnerability (pdf: 1,5 Mb)

Summary of the talk by a student: Students´ summary (pdf)

Ever since the advent of the industrial revolution human societies have been steadily increasing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) through fossil fuel combustion. Alongside these direct emissions of gases into our atmosphere, indirect emissions associated with the large-scale human modification of our land cover and its resources, have caused the atmospheric concentration of the most important GHG, CO2 to nearly double over the 20th Century. An overview of our current understanding of the global carbon cycle, emissions and feedbacks between the different components in the natural system with links to the current political climate debate, will be given in the first part of the presentation. After giving a grounding of the carbon cycle and climate change in a “natural sciences” context, the second part of the presentation will focus on the carbon cycle from a more “human point of view”. Here we will look into closer depth and identify vulnerable ecosystems, which in turn are important in terms of their role in the carbon cycle and climate change. Vulnerability in these ecosystems will be expressed in terms of their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to current and projected future climate changes.

• Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward FI, Prentice IC, Betts RA, Brovkin V, Cox PM, Fisher V, Foley JA, Friend AD, Kucharik C, Lomas MR, Ramankutty N, Sitch S, Smith B, White A, Young-Molling C (2001) Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology 7: 357-373. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x
  
  
• Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408:184-187. doi:10.1038/35041539
  
  
• Betts RA (2000) Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo. Nature 408: 187-190. doi:10.1038/35041545
  
  
• McGuire AD, Sitch S, Clein JS, Dargaville R, Esser G, Foley J, Heimann M, Joos F, Kaplan J, Kicklighter DW, Meier RA, Melillo JM, Moore B, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, Reichenau T, Schloss A, Tian H, Williams LJ, Wittenberg U (2001) Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15: 183-206.
  
  
• Met Office (2001) Climate change science Some recent results from the Hadley Centre. (pdf: 1,5MB)
  
  
• Prentice IC, Farquhar GD, Fasham MJR, Goulden MI, Heimann M, Jaramillo VJ, Kheshgi HS, Le Quéré C, Scholes RJ, Wallace DWR (2001) The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. IPCC. (pdf: 1MB)
  
  
• Schimel D, Baker D (2002) The wildfire factor. Nature 420:29-30. doi:10.1038/420029a
  
  
• Siegert F, Ruecker G, Hinrichs A, Hoffmann AA (2001) Increased damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El Nino. Nature 414: 437-440. doi:10.1038/35106547

AVEC is a EU FP5 Concerted Action No. EVK2-2001-00074

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