|
|
| Method: | Univariate Linear Regression |
|---|---|
| Station: | Potsdam (Germany) |
| Parameter: | Daily Mean Temperatur (Tmit) |
| Aggregation: | Monthly Means (m) |
| Monthly Standard Deviations (σ) | |
| Detrending: | Differentials |
| Target Values: | Summer Mean Temperature (Jun-Aug) |
| Mean Temperature (Jul-Aug) | |
| Number of Hot Days (hoda) | |
| Formula: | TJJA=a•σ{TJan}+b•σ{TFeb}+c•σ{TMar}+d•σ{TApr}+e•m{TApr} |
| Coefficients: | a = -0.2 |
| b = -0.4 | |
| c = -0.3 | |
| d = -0.1 | |
| e = -0.4 |
| Potsdam | Targets | Predictors | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Jun-Aug (°C) | Jul-Aug (°C) | Hot-Days (d) | sFeb | sMar | sApr | mApr |
| 1993 | 16.1 | 16.3 | 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 11.1 |
| 1994 | 19.0 | 20.4 | 20 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 9.3 |
| 1995 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 20 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 8.8 |
| 1996 | 17.1 | 17.4 | 8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 9.8 |
| 1997 | 19.2 | 20.1 | 13 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 6.7 |
| 1998 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 10.1 |
| 1999 | 18.4 | 19.4 | 12 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 10.0 |
| 2000 | 17.7 | 17.3 | 11 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 11.5 |
| 2001 | 18.0 | 19.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 8.0 |
| 2002 | 18.9 | 19.6 | 7 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 8.6 |
| 2003 | 20.2 | 20.4 | 23 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 9.2 |
| 2004 | 17.5 | 18.4 | 6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 10.1 |
| 2005 | 17.4 | 17.7 | 8 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 10.4 |
| 2006 | 19.6 | 20.2 | 20 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 8.8 |
| 2007 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 10 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 12.0 |
| 2008 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 8.6 |
| 2009 | 18.2 | 19.5 | 6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 13.2 |
| 2010 | 19.6 | 20.4 | 17 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 9.5 |
| 2011 | 18.0 | 17.8 | 7 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 12.6 |
| 2012 | 17.7 | 18.5 | 10 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 9.3 |
| 2013 | 18.9 | 19.7 | 13 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 9.1 |
| 2014 | 18.2 | 18.9 | 11 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 12.0 |
| 2015 | 19.3 | 20.7 | 21 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 9.3 |
| 2016 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 15 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 6 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 8.2 |
| Potsdam | Targets | Predictors | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Jun-Aug (K) | Jul-Aug (K) | Hot-Days (d) | sFeb | sMar | sApr | mApr |
| 1994 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 18 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| 1995 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| 1996 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -12 | 1.9 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 1997 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 5 | -0.8 | 0.9 | -3.1 | -3.1 |
| 1998 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3.4 |
| 1999 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 3 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2000 | -0.8 | -2.1 | -1 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2001 | 0.4 | 2.2 | -1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -1.8 | -3.5 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 0.1 | -3 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -1.1 | 0.6 |
| 2003 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 16 | -1.3 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 2004 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -17 | 1.8 | 0.9 | -1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2005 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 2 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| 2006 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 12 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| 2007 | -1.3 | -2.3 | -10 | 0.2 | -1.4 | 0.8 | 3.3 |
| 2008 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -3.4 |
| 2009 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -10 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -0.7 | 4.6 |
| 2010 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 11 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 0.6 | -3.7 |
| 2011 | -1.6 | -2.6 | -10 | 1.3 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 3.1 |
| 2012 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 3 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 2.2 | -3.3 |
| 2013 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -2 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -2.1 | 2.9 |
| 2015 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -2.7 |
| 2016 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -6 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |