Climate Data

(for Europe)

Christoph Menz

RDII

Slides available at

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~menz/Re-Livestock/Workshop_20230302

# Outline - Observation Datasets - Station Observations - Gridded Observations - Reanalysis - Global Climate Model Data - Bias Adjustment - Regional Climate Model Data

Observations

Station Observations

Famartin CC-BY-SA 4.0

Martinvl CC-BY-SA 3.0

Famartin CC-BY-SA 4.0

Riosolar CC-BY-SA 4.0

## Example Station Data - Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD)


STN---,WBAN , YEARMODA,   TEMP,  ,   DEWP,  ,  SLP  ,  ,  STP  ,  , VISIB,  ,  WDSP,  , MXSPD,  GUST,   MAX  ,  MIN  ,PRCP  ,SNDP , FRSHTT,
075100,99999, 19450101,   33.1, 7, 9999.9, 0, 1033.2, 7, 9999.9, 0,   6.7, 7,   4.2, 7,   9.9, 999.9,   39.0*,  25.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450103,   34.0, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1028.8, 8, 9999.9, 0,   8.6, 8,   0.8, 8,   6.0, 999.9,   39.9*,  30.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450104,   35.9, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1005.3, 8, 9999.9, 0,   5.1, 8,  10.4, 8,  16.9, 999.9,   41.0*,  32.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 011000,
075100,99999, 19450105,   36.1, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1012.5, 8, 9999.9, 0,   8.1, 8,  12.1, 8,  16.9, 999.9,   37.0*,  35.1*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450106,   34.5, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1022.0, 8, 9999.9, 0,   9.9, 8,   2.5, 8,   9.9, 999.9,   37.9*,  32.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 001000,
075100,99999, 19450107,   34.9, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1020.9, 8, 9999.9, 0,   6.1, 8,   1.2, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   43.0*,  28.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450108,   37.6, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1013.5, 8, 9999.9, 0,   8.8, 8,   1.7, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   44.1*,  33.1*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450109,   31.7, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1007.2, 8, 9999.9, 0,   7.2, 8,   1.2, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   36.0*,  27.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 011000,
075100,99999, 19450110,   31.2, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1009.9, 8, 9999.9, 0,   2.5, 8,   0.8, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   37.0*,  28.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450111,   29.0, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1008.1, 8, 9999.9, 0,   3.1, 8,   0.8, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   32.0*,  26.1*,99.99 ,999.9, 001000,
075100,99999, 19450112,   22.6, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1008.4, 8, 9999.9, 0,   1.6, 8,   1.5, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   30.9*,  18.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 001000,
075100,99999, 19450113,   19.5, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1014.0, 8, 9999.9, 0,   5.0, 8,   1.0, 8,   6.0, 999.9,   23.0*,  16.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450114,   24.3, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1016.2, 8, 9999.9, 0,   3.1, 8,   3.3, 8,   6.0, 999.9,   30.0*,  18.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450116,   22.4, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1011.4, 8, 9999.9, 0,   4.4, 8,   4.5, 8,   6.0, 999.9,   30.0*,  17.1*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450117,   22.7, 7, 9999.9, 0, 1014.9, 7, 9999.9, 0,   3.1, 7,   1.4, 7,   4.1, 999.9,   30.0*,  15.1*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450118,   42.6, 5, 9999.9, 0, 1012.7, 5, 9999.9, 0,   4.3, 5,   8.4, 5,  15.9, 999.9,   46.0*,  36.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450119,   42.3, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1010.8, 8, 9999.9, 0,   9.9, 8,  12.6, 8,  30.9, 999.9,   48.9*,  37.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450120,   40.4, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1015.1, 8, 9999.9, 0,   7.8, 8,   9.0, 8,  19.0, 999.9,   48.0*,  34.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450121,   37.0, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1016.3, 8, 9999.9, 0,  10.2, 8,   1.0, 8,   1.9, 999.9,   41.0*,  34.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450122,   36.9, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1019.8, 8, 9999.9, 0,   8.1, 8,   2.5, 8,   9.9, 999.9,   43.0*,  33.1*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450123,   46.5, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1008.9, 8, 9999.9, 0,   5.0, 8,  15.6, 8,  22.9, 999.9,   51.1*,  41.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450124,   44.9, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1009.2, 8, 9999.9, 0,   7.6, 8,   8.4, 8,  16.9, 999.9,   50.0*,  43.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 011000,
075100,99999, 19450125,   41.7, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1003.2, 8, 9999.9, 0,   7.1, 8,   2.8, 8,   4.1, 999.9,   45.0*,  37.9*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450126,   34.5, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1014.0, 8, 9999.9, 0,   6.8, 8,   4.7, 8,  12.0, 999.9,   37.9*,  30.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450127,   41.9, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1012.5, 8, 9999.9, 0,   3.5, 8,  14.5, 8,  22.9, 999.9,   48.0*,  32.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450128,   32.9, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1021.7, 8, 9999.9, 0,   7.9, 8,   4.5, 8,   8.0, 999.9,   39.0*,  28.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450129,   29.0, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1030.3, 8, 9999.9, 0,   6.3, 8,   1.0, 8,   1.9, 999.9,   33.1*,  25.0*, 0.00I,999.9, 000000,
075100,99999, 19450130,   39.4, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1024.5, 8, 9999.9, 0,   3.8, 8,   4.3, 8,   9.9, 999.9,   51.1*,  30.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
075100,99999, 19450131,   52.4, 8, 9999.9, 0, 1020.7, 8, 9999.9, 0,   8.9, 8,   3.0, 8,   8.0, 999.9,   57.0*,  48.0*,99.99 ,999.9, 010000,
...

- No global standard format to store station data - Every source uses its own format

Dataset	Temporal Resolution	# Stations	Comment
Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)	Daily	~75.000
Integrated Surface Dataset (ISD)	Hourly	~35.000
Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD)	Daily	~35.000	based on ISD
CLIMAT	Monthly	~3.000
National Weather Services	Daily/Hourly

Gridded Observations

Observations

Gridded Observations

Reanalysis

Data Assimilation \begin{align} \mathbf{x}(0) - \mathbf{x}_b(0) & = \mathbf{\epsilon}_b \newline \mathbf{y} - \mathbf{H}(\mathbf{x}) & = \mathbf{\epsilon}_o \newline \frac{\partial \mathbf{x}}{\partial t} + \mathbf{M}(\mathbf{x}) & = \mathbf{\epsilon}_m \end{align}

Dataset	Coverage	Spatial Resolution	Temporal Resolution	Timeframe	Type
CRU-TS v4.06	global	~50km	monthly	1901-2021	gridded
GPCC v2020	global	~25km	monthly	1891-2019	gridded
E-OBS v26.0e	regional	~12.5km	daily	1950-2022	gridded
ERA5	global	~25km	hourly	1979-now	Reanalysis
ERA5-Land	global	~10km	hourly	1979-now	Reanalysis
W5E5 v2.0	global	~50km	daily	1979-2019	Bias adjusted Reanalysis
PGF	global	~50km	daily	1948-2016	Bias adjusted Reanalysis
CHELSA-W5E5 v1.0	global	~1km	daily	1979-2016	Bias adjusted and downscaled Reanalysis

Global Climate Models

Dataset	Spatial Resolution	Temporal Resolution	Timeframe	# Models	Comment
CMIP3	~200km	daily/subdaily	1850-2100	~24	AR4 (SRES scenarios)
CMIP5	~100km	daily/subdaily	1850-2100	~50	AR5 (RCP scenarios)
CMIP6	~100km	daily/subdaily	1850-2100	~96	AR6 (SSP scenarios)
ISIMIP2b	~50km	daily	1861-2100	4	Bias adjusted CMIP5
ISIMIP3b	~50km	daily	1850-2100	10	Bias adjusted CMIP6

Future (Socio-Economic) Scenarios

Pedersen et al. (2022)

Future (Socio-Economic) Scenarios

AR4

AR5/AR6

Nakićenović et al. (2000)

van Vuuren and Carter (2014)

Riahi et al.

SRES - Special Report on Emission Scenarios

SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

RCP - Representative Concentration Pathways

## Climate Change Germany

Bias Adjustment

## Bias affects all modes of distribution

JJA 1971-2000, Bangladesh

## Bias affects all variables

Annual Precipitation Grid Cell over the Alps

Observation

GCM Simulation

## Bias affects all grid cells

Model - Observation, JJA 1971-2000, Bangladesh

# Mathematical # Definition of Bias \begin{align} \mathrm{Bias}[\hat \theta] = \mathrm{E}[\hat \theta] - \theta \end{align}

$\theta$ :

Real value of some quantity we would like to estimate e.g. average temperature, standard deviation of precipitation, number of hot days, ...

$\mathrm{E}[\hat \theta]$ :

Model estimate of $\theta$

$\mathrm{Bias}[\hat \theta]$ :

Difference between the real $\theta$ and our model estimate $\mathrm{E}[\hat \theta]$

Literature

Panofsky and Brier (1968)

Bultot et al. (1988)

Schmidli et al. (2006)

Leander and Buishand (2007)

Boé (2007)

Yang et al. (2010)

Piani and Haerter (2012)

Hempel et al. (2013)

Johnson and Sharma (2015)

Vrac and Friederichs (2015)

Cannon (2016)

Ngai et al. (2017)

Sippel et al. (2017)

Hoffmann et al. (2018)

Lange (2019)

...

CanESM5

EC-Earth3

MPI-ESM1-2-HR

MIROC6

## Problems with Bias Adjustment - Mostly statistical postprocessing with **no physical reasoning** (but in development) - Bias adjustment usually applied on **each variable seperately** - Depend on observation dataset as **reference** - **Sampling variability** interpreted as bias - Bias adjustment depend on **time scalei** - ...

**Tarim Basin**

Regional Climate Models

### Global Climate Model

### Regional Climate Model

Dataset	Spatial Resolution	Temporal Resolution	Timeframe	# Models	Comment
CORDEX-EUR11 (CMIP5)	~12.5km	daily/subdaily	1950-2100	~32	AR5 (RCP scenarios)
BAdCORD-EUR11	~12.5km	daily	1971-2100	32	Bias adjusted CORDEX-EUR11
CORDEX-EUR11 (CMIP6)	~12.5km	daily/subdaily	-	-	in development

CMIP5

CORDEX-EUR11

## GCM vs. RCM 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990 --- RCP8.5 --- CMIP5: 89 simulations CORDEX-EUR11: 37 simulations

GCM

RCM

## Bias Adjustment - Technical Procedure