Smallholder agriculture in Northeast Brazil: Assessing heterogeneous human-environmental dynamics

A qualitative model of smallholder agriculture with a few core variables and two allocation rules for labour and investment in agricultural resources was developed to cover spatial heterogeneity in Northeast Brazil. For the model equations click here.
This region is characterised by large natural and socio-economic variance, recurrent droughts and widespread rural poverty. The resulting system dynamics essentially consists of a cycle of four qualitative states , each depicting a typical pattern of trends in smallholder agriculture. Municipal statistical data were used to identify the spatial distribution of these patterns for the 1990s and the internal transition likelihood between subsequent states. Additionally the influence of external perturbations like droughts and producer price shocks on the smallholder system was investigated.

The following map shows the spatial distribution of the dynamic state with respect to the trend of resource quality and applied agricultural labour:
Downloads:
numerical codes for 591 municipios in NE-Brazil
identified trend combinations

For further details see the following paper:
Sietz, D., Untied, B., Walkenhorst, O., Lüdeke, M.K.B., Mertins, G., Petschel-Held, G. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2006): Smallholder agriculture in Northeast Brazil: Assessing heterogeneous human-environmental dynamics. Regional Environmental Change 6, 132-146. pdf