S Y N D I C A T E
Syndromes and Paradigms 2005
Matthias Lüdeke (Project Speaker),
Diana Reckien, Diana Sietz,
Oliver Walkenhorst, Carsten Walther
The syndrome-approach, devised by the German Advisory Council on Global Change
and developed and operationalized at PIK, represents a promising approach to
place-based integrated assessment of Global Change. Within the approach the
richness of human-nature interactions is categorized by specifying typical
combinations of symptoms of Global Change (ecosystem conversion, impoverishment,
etc.). The project also seeks to formulate a "pharmacy" for syndrome mitigation
requiring the identification of positive patterns of change, called paradigms.
The Syndrome methodology is applied within the GEO-4 process, where a set of "archetypes of vulnerability"
is defined and investigated.
Two externally funded sub-projects deal with regional applications of the
1. TYPICAL CAUSE-EFFECT PATTERNS OF LAND USE CHANGE IN SELECTED
DEVELOPING AND NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
Emphasis on smallholder agriculture in N-E-Brazil under climate change, price fluctuations
and ressource degradation (DFG funded). Key publication:
Sietz, D., Untied, B., Walkenhorst, O., Lüdeke, M.K.B., Mertins, G.,
Petschel-Held, G. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2006): Smallholder agriculture in Northeast Brazil: Assessing
heterogeneous human-environmental dynamics. Regional Environmental Change 6, 132-146. PDF
2. URBS PANDENS
Urban Sprawl: European Patterns, Environmental Degradation
and Sustainable Development (EU funded). Key publication:
Lüdeke, M.K.B., Meyer-Veden, D. (2007). Qualitative attractivity models - a new approach to describe and predict
urban development. Accepted for publication, Environment and Planning B.
On the global scale a set of
ARCHETYPES OF VULNERABILITY was identified.
This list is the basis for the integrating chapter of the Global
Environment Outlook 4 (UNEP)
UNEP: Global Environment Outlook 4, Chapter 8. To appear in Oct. 2007