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| Climate Change/Sea Level Rise Since large area of the coastal areas of Nador and Berkane are low lying land, sea level rise may pose an important threat for people, coastal infrastructure, and natural heritages. Since recent results have shown that sea level rise (SLR) might be underestimated, the anticipated increase and potential costs (residual damage costs, costs for adapation, costs for migration) were analysed. It can be anticipated that the protection level of the Moroccan coasts will decrease to approximately 1 yr until 2050 implying that a large flood event will occur every year beyond this time horizon. Two situations were compared: (i) the business as usual case (BAU), i.e. now additional coastal protection and (ii) coastal adaptation under the normative decision that Moroccan coast shall be protected against a sea flood with an average return level of 100 and 75 yrs. For both cases the A2 forcing (Background document: How climate modelling works) is assumed and the costs are calculated and compared. |
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| Climate Change/Precipitation Regarding the water supply in Nador and Berkane potential impacts of climate change are of vital interest. First analyses of the simulated precipitation regime show large differences if one compares the beginning an the end of the 21st century (here: A2 forcing, HadCM3 model, red dryer, blue wetter in 2100 - similar pattern for CSIRO-MK2 and PCM model). While during the summer season (JJA) the situation remains mainly unchanged (mainly 0-40 mm seasonal sum) in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) decreases can be anticipated. In fall (SON) the case study region shows a slight increase in the seasonal sum of precipitation. More important is the comparison of the the annual sums for 2000 and 2100. Directly at the coast the situation will be also unchanged, but in the mountains the decrease is considerably indicating a future water scarcity (enlarge image). |
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Climate Change/Temperature The water problem may be inforced due to increasing evapotranspiration, since the temperature increase will be also considerably in particular in summer (cf. below). While in winter the increase in the average temperature amounts to approx. 2-3 °C in summer summer this approaches 5-7 °C leading to an increase in the annual average of approx. 2.5-4.5 °C (enlarge image). |
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