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About the numerical estimation for model parameters

Based on the analytical analysis, the system is analysed numerically in respect to the positions and number of stable equilibria. Phase portraits showing trajectories in the tex2html_wrap_inline1733-domain give a visual impression of the system behaviour. The equilibria of the system are easily obtained by plotting the two functions I:tex2html_wrap_inline1735 (eq. (11)) and II:tex2html_wrap_inline1737 (eq. (35)) and determining their intersection points in the phase space. The maximum number of possible equilibria is restricted to five, because both functions I and II are unimodular ones and therefore intersect at a maximum of four points in tex2html_wrap_inline1733. Together with the ``naked'' equilibrium one gets five as an upper boundary for the number of stationary solutions.

For a certain set of parameters we have a phase portrait as in Fig. 11a: two of the three possible equilibria are stable, the ``cold desert'' with N=0 and the ``cold'' planet with N>0. The unstable equilibrium separates the two basins of attraction. If A is increased, but tex2html_wrap_inline1747 is fixed, the phase portrait changes according to Fig. 11b, where three stable equilibria exist (``cold desert'' ``cold '' planet, and ``hot'' planet). A further increase of A reduces their number to two (Fig. 11c).

  figure584
Figure 11: Phase portraits for increasing A and fixed tex2html_wrap_inline1753. (a): ``cold desert'' and ``cold'' planet are stable equilibria, (b) ``cold desert'' ``cold'' and ``hot'' planet are stable, (c) ``cold desert'' and ``hot'' planet are stable. Curve I: tex2html_wrap_inline1755, and II: tex2html_wrap_inline1737. The different shaded areas denote the basins of attraction.

Since we would like our planet to be similar to the Earth, we shall use real values for estimation of the model parameters.

It is known for Earth that tex2html_wrap_inline1759, tex2html_wrap_inline1761 for land and tex2html_wrap_inline1763 for ocean. Since our planet has no ocean, without loss of generality, we can put tex2html_wrap_inline1765. The time step of the model is equal to 1 yeartex2html_wrap_inline1767 sec, then tex2html_wrap_inline1769 in the corresponding units. The albedo for ``naked'' Earth (white sands) is tex2html_wrap_inline1771, and for ``green'' Earth tex2html_wrap_inline1773 [2].

About the role of atmospheric carbon: the ``greenhouse'' effect. In agreement with Petoukhov[8], tex2html_wrap_inline1775 and tex2html_wrap_inline1777 or tex2html_wrap_inline1779, so that
equation600
if C is measured in Gt. Note that tex2html_wrap_inline1783.

The temperature of the ``cold desert'' for Earth is determined by
equation607
Here tex2html_wrap_inline1785. On the other hand, the contemporary temperature is tex2html_wrap_inline1787. Note that in this case the mean albedo tex2html_wrap_inline1789, so that tex2html_wrap_inline1791, and the equilibrium temperature for a planet without atmosphere would be
equation615
Containing tex2html_wrap_inline1275 and tex2html_wrap_inline1795, the atmosphere increases the temperature (the ``greenhouse effect'' This increase can be obtained as a result of the reduction of the coefficient tex2html_wrap_inline1295; when we introduce some ``effective'' tex2html_wrap_inline1295 denoted as tex2html_wrap_inline1801:
equation623
where tex2html_wrap_inline1803 is a decreasing function, taking into account the role of tex2html_wrap_inline1275, tex2html_wrap_inline1807 is the similar function for water vapour with concentration W. Obviously, tex2html_wrap_inline1811. For C=610Gt the corresponding value is tex2html_wrap_inline1815.

If we neglect the water vapour contribution, then tex2html_wrap_inline1817, just as the real temperature is tex2html_wrap_inline1787. It shows that this contribution is very important, and we must include it in our consideration (in some implicit changing tex2html_wrap_inline1295). From this condition
equation630
we get tex2html_wrap_inline1823, and tex2html_wrap_inline1825. But only considering tex2html_wrap_inline1275 in the atmosphere, then
equation635
and
equation640

Since
equation647
where tex2html_wrap_inline1829, then
equation655

We assume that the contemporary state of the biosphere is an equilibrium. We consider the current productivity of the biosphere as the equilibrium one. Here and hereafter we use the data from [12].

The ``soil'' compartment was omitted in our model. Its influence can be described by an increase of the residence time of carbon in the biota. On the other hand, the relatively large part of dead organic matter (tex2html_wrap_inline1831) is returned very rapidly to the atmosphere. For this reason, as an initial approximation, we can forget about the ``soil'' compartment and consider the following estimations:
eqnarray662
so that the residence time of carbon in the biota is equal to 12.5 years.

The tolerance interval for photosynthesis is tex2html_wrap_inline1835, and tex2html_wrap_inline1837 (for a parabolic approximation of the growth function). Since tex2html_wrap_inline1787, then
equation681
And from
equation688
we get tex2html_wrap_inline1841. And, finally, from
equation700
we get tex2html_wrap_inline1843 Gt.

 
parameter value units
S 340 tex2html_wrap_inline1847
k tex2html_wrap_inline1851 tex2html_wrap_inline1853
tex2html_wrap_inline1295 tex2html_wrap_inline1857 tex2html_wrap_inline1859
tex2html_wrap_inline1861 0.4
tex2html_wrap_inline1863 0.1
tex2html_wrap_inline1865 0.6
tex2html_wrap_inline1867 750 Gt
tex2html_wrap_inline1869 600 Gt
tex2html_wrap_inline1871 5 tex2html_wrap_inline1873
tex2html_wrap_inline1875 40 tex2html_wrap_inline1873
A 1360 Gt
m 0.08 1/year
tex2html_wrap_inline1365 80 Gt/year
Table 1: Model parameters for real Earth scenario.
 

We have for our planet: tex2html_wrap_inline1885, i.e. the total amount of carbon is less than three times compared to its critical value and equilibria with tex2html_wrap_inline1575 can exist. Remembering the formula for tex2html_wrap_inline1457, we can test the value tex2html_wrap_inline1609. It is equal to tex2html_wrap_inline1893 (for tex2html_wrap_inline1895 Gt). And finally we must note that all values N, C, etc. are measured in Gt (tex2html_wrap_inline1901 tons).

Fig. 12 plots the phase portrait corresponding to the parameter setting for Earth summarized in Tab. 1. The phase portrait is similar to Fig. 11a, where two equilibria (the cold desert and the cold planet with vegetation) are stable for the given A. But note that for the present state of the Earth the planet without vegetation tex2html_wrap_inline1485 for any T is stable preventing life arising from the ``dead'' planet state. Leaving the basin of attraction of tex2html_wrap_inline1575 by, e.g., perturbation of N to a value below a critical threshold leads to a complete extinction of vegetation on Earth.

  figure725
Figure 12: Phase portrait for the system with parameter settings according to real Earth scenario.


next up previous
Next: Conclusion Up: Climatevegetation, and global Previous: The ``naked'' planet

Werner von Bloh (Data & Computation)
Thu Jul 13 11:24:58 MEST 2000