INTEGRATION- Integrated Assessment of Changes in the Thermohaline Circulation

The risk of serious ocean circulation changes due to anthropogenic global warming has received much public attention in recent years, yet little scientific information exists on the likelihood or the possible consequences of such an event. The INTEGRATION project aims to analyse uncertainties in projecting ocean circulation changes, as well as to make a first assessment of likely impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems and society.

Two types of ocean circulation changes will be considered in the project: A substantial weakening of the North Atlantic Current and deep convection by 20-50%, as simulated by most climate models for the coming 50-100 years, and a complete shutdown of convection and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation as simulated in some "pessimistic" model scenarios for the 22nd century.