$\parbox{\linewidth}{\huge Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research}$

Mini-Conference on

New Developments in Trend- and Extreme Value Analysis of Hydrometeorological Time Series

Workshop Venue: Potsdam, Germany, Albert Einstein Science Park, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Building H, Lecture Hall, December 12.-13., 2005

The deadline for contributions to the proceedings (Springer) is March 31st, 2006. The length of your contribution is restricted to approx. 6000 words. All contributions will be peer-reviewed. Since the book will be typsetted in LaTeX2e we prefer manuscripts, which are prepared in LaTeX. Color images are possible, but should be reduced to a minimum. The abstract book is available here!

Schedule
Monday, 12. December 2005, Morning Session
10:00	`Opening Session'; Chair A. Bunde
10:10 - 10:25	Aims and Scopes of the Project ``Scaling Analysis of Hydrometeorological Time Series Data'' (J. Kropp)
10:25 - 10:35	Short Note: Project Design of VERIS-Elbe: Changing Risks and Management Options (C. Schmidt)
10:50 - 11:20	Assessment of Design-Flows in Water Management: Classical Methods, Non-Stationary and Multidimensional Extensions (W. Willems)
	Key Note Lecture: The View of Practitioners
11:20 - 11:50	Trend Detection in River Flow Extremes (M. Radziejewski)
	Key Note Lecture: Trend Detection
11:50 - 12:20	The Bootstrap Approach to Analyse Trends and Extremes in Hydrological Time Series (M. Mudelsee)
	Key Note Lecture: Methodological Developments
Monday, 12. December 2005, Afternoon Session
13:45	Session: `Trend assessment, Long-term Variability and Extremes'; Chair: J. Kropp
13:45 - 14:15	Extreme Value and Trend Analysis Based on Statistical Modelling of Precipitation Time Series (S. Trömel)
14:15 - 14:45	Extreme Value Analysis considering Trends: Methodology and Application to Runoff Data of the River Danube Catchment (M. Kallache, H. Rust, H. Lange, J. Kropp)
14:45 - 15:15	Regional Determination of Historical Heavy Rain for Reconstruction of Extreme Flood Events (F. Imbery, P. Dostal, K. Bürger, J. Seidel)
15:35 - 16:05	Methods and Examples for Identification of Non-Stationarities in Frequency Distributions of River Runoffs (B. Thies, H. Lange)
16:05 - 16:35	Long-Term Behaviour of Daily Precipitation Data and Rainfall Extremes using Wavelets (S. Bachner, A. Kapala, C. Simmer)
16:35 - 17:05	Extraction of Spatially Correlated Long-Term Structures from River Runoff Data of Southern Germany by Means of Multivariate and Non-Linear Dimension Reduction Techniques (M. Mahecha, H. Lange, G. Lischeid)
Tuesday, 13. December 2005, Morning Session
9:00	Session: `Spatial and Temporal Variability, Scaling'; Chair: H. Lange
9:00 - 9:30	Precipitation and River Runoff Records: Long-Term Persistence and Multifractality (D. Rybski, J. Kantelhardt, E. Koscielny-Bunde, P. Braun, A. Bunde, S. Havlin)
9:30 - 10:00	On the Robustness of the Estimates of Centennial-Scale Variability in Heavy Precipitation from Station Data over Europe (O. Zolina, C. Simmer, A. Kapala, S. Gulev)
10:00 - 10:30	Dimension Estimates of Multivariate Hydrometeorological Data: Influence and Early Detection of Extreme Events (R. Donner, A. Witt, J. Kurths)
10:45 - 11:15	Characteristic Scales, Temporal Variability Modes and Simulation of Monthly Elbe River Flow Time Series at Ungauged Locations (D. Markovic, M. Koch)
11:15 - 11:45	Wavelet Spectral Analysis: Developments and Application (D. Maraun, M. Hohlschneider, J. Kurths)
11:45 - 12:15	Scaling Analysis of River Flux Fluctuations: Properties of Observed Records vs. Model Data (V. Livina, Y. Ashkenazy, P. Braun, A. Bunde, S. Havlin)
Tuesday, 13. December 2005, Afternoon Session
13:30	Session: `Extreme Value Assessment'; Chair: P. Braun
13:30 - 14:00	Intense Precipitation and High River Flow - Observations and Projections (Z. Kundzewicz)
	Key Note Lecture: Impacts of Climate Change
14:00 - 14:30	Estimating Confidence Intervals for Flood Quantiles: A Bootstrap Approach (H.W. Rust, M. Kallache, J. Kropp)
14:30 - 15:00	Extreme Value Statistics under the Influence of Long-Range Correlations: Return Intervals, Annual and Centennial Maxima (J.F. Eichner, A. Bunde, J. Kantelhardt, S. Havlin)
15:15 - 15:45	Extreme Value Statistics of Non-Stationary and Correlated Run-Off Time Series Data (S. Endres, H. Lange)
15:45 - 16:15	Probabilistic Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting of Africa and Europe using Quantile Regression (P. Friederichs, A. Hense)
16:15 - 16:45	Development of Regional Flood Formulae using L-Moments for Small Watersheds of Sone Subzone of India (C. Chatterjee, R. Kumar)