RD1 Publications

This page provides references and links to the most recent peer-reviewed publications from staff members and guests of the PIK Research Domain I, Earth System Analysis. If you are interested in obtaining preprints of the papers in press, please contact the authors directly.

Papers in press

• Hofmann H & Schellnhuber HJ in press Ocean Acidification: A Millennial Challenge. Energy and Environmental Science
• Müller C, Lotze-Campen H, Huber V, Popp A, Svirejeva-Hopkins A, Krause M & Schellnhuber HJ in press Preface Essays: Towards a Great Land-Use Transformation? in: Brauch HG, Oswald Spring U, Mes­jasz C, Grin J, Kameri-Mbote P, Chourou B, Dunay P & Birkmann J (eds.): Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security? Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol. 5, Springer Publishers
• Popp A, Lotze-Campen H, Leimbach M, Knopf B, Beringer T, Bauer N in press On sustainability of bio-energy production: integrating co-emissions from agricultural intensification. Biomass and Bioenergy
• Schaber J, Badeck F-W¹, Doktor D & von Bloh W in press Combining messy phenological time series. In: Hudson IL & Keatley MR (eds) Phenological Research: Methods for Environmental and Climate Change Analysis. Springer Publishers
• Schiffers K, Tielbörger K, Tietjen B, Jeltsch F in press Root plasticity buffers competition among plants - theory meets experimental data. Ecology.
• Strengers BJ, Müller C, Schaeffer M, Haarsma RJ, Severijns C, Van den Houdt R & Oostenrijk R in press Assessing 20th century climate-vegetation feedbacks of land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics in a fully coupled vegetation-climate model. International Journal of Climatology

Papers in press and available online

• Bauer E & Ganopolski A 2010 Aeolian dust modeling over the past four glacial cycles with CLIMBER-2. Global and Planetary Change, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.07.009
  
• Hattermann T & Levermann A 2010 Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica. Climate Dynamics (online), doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0643-3
• Petoukhov V & Semenov VA in press A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013568
• Poulter B², Hattermann F, Hawkins E, Zaehle S, Sitch S, Restrepo-Coupe N, Heyder U & Cramer W in press Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02157.x
• Romanova V, Köhl A, Stammer D, Klepp C Andersson A & Bakan S in press Sea surface freshwater flux estimates from GECCO, HOPAS and NCEP. Tellus, doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00447.x

Papers published in 2010

• Arneth A, Sitch S, Bondeau A, Butterbach-Bahl K, Foster P, Gedney N, de Noblet-Ducoudre N, Prentice IC, Sanderson M, Thonicke K, Wania R & Zaehle S 2010 From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere. Biogeosciences 7(1):121-149, doi: 10.5194/bg-7-121-2010
• Bässler C, Müller J, Hothorn T, Kneib T, Badeck F-W¹ & Dziock F 2010 Estimation of the extinction risk for high-montane species as a consequence of global warming and assessment of their suitability as cross-taxon indicators. Ecological Indicators 10(2):341-352, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2009.06.014
• Born A & Levermann A 2010 The 8.2k event: abrupt transition of the subpolar gyre towards a modern North Atlantic circulation, supplementary information. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems G3 11, Q06011, doi: 10.1029/2009GC003024
• Calov R, Greve R, Abe-Ouchi A, Bueler E, Huybrechts P, Johnson JV, Pattyn F, Pollard D, Ritz C, Saito F & Tarasov L 2010 Results from the ice sheet model intercomparison project - Heinrich event intercomparison (ISMIP HEINO). Journal of Glaciology 56(197):371-383
• Fader M, Rost S, Müller C, Bondeau A & Gerten D 2010 Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns. Journal of Hydrology 384(3-4):218-231, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.011
• Feulner G & Rahmstorf S 2010 On the Effect of a New Grand Minimum of Solar Activity on the Future Climate on Earth. Geophysical Research Letters 37 (L05707), doi:10.1029/2010GL042710
• Ganopolski A, Calov R & Claussen M 2010 Simulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past 6:229-244
• Gumpenberger M, Vohland K², Heyder U, Poulter B², Macey K, Rammig A, Popp A & Cramer W 2010 Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses - implications for REDD. Environmental Research Letters 5 014013, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014013
• Jupp TE, Cox PM, Rammig A, Thonicke K, Lucht W, Cramer W 2010 Development of probability density functions for future South American rainfall. New Phytologist 187(3): 682–693, doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03368.x
  

• Kleinen T, Brovkin V¹, von Bloh W, Archer D & Munhoven, G 2010 Holocene carbon cycle dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters 37 (L02705), doi:10.1029/2009GL041391
• Knopf B, Edenhofer O, Flachsland C, Kok MTJ, Lotze-Campen H, Luderer G, Popp A & van Vuuren DP 2010 Managing the low-carbon transition - From model results to policies. The Energy Journal 31 (Special Issue 1: The Economics of Low Stabilization): 223-245
• Levermann A & Fürst JJ 2010 Atlantic pycnocline theory scrutinized using a coupled climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L14602, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044180
• Loibl, W & Walz A 2010 Generic regional development strategies from local stakeholders’ scenarios – the Montafon experience. Ecology and Society 15(3):3  
• Lorenz A, Held H, Bauer E & Schneider von Deimling T 2010 Constraining ocean diffusivity from the 8.2 ka event. Climate Dynamics 34(5):719-734, doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0590-z
• Lotze-Campen H, Pop A, Beringer T, Müller C, Bondeau A, Rost S, Lucht W 2010 Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade. Ecological Modelling 221:2188-2196, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002 (available online: 13 Nov 2009)

• Mace GM, Cramer W, Diaz S, Faith DP, Larigauderie A, Le Prestre P, Palmer M, Perrings C, Scholes RJ, Walpole M, Walther BA, Watson JA & Mooney HA 2010 Biodiversity targets after 2010. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2:1-6, doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2010.03.003
• Margari V, Skinner LC, Tzedakis PC, Ganopolski A, Vautravers M & Shackleton NJ 2010 The nature of millennial-scale climate variability during the past two glacial periods. Nature Geoscience 3:127-131, doi:10.1038/ngeo740
• Marzeion B, Levermann A & Mignot J 2010 Sensitivity of North Atlantic subpolar gyre and overturning to stratification-dependent mixing: response to global warming. Climate Dynamics 34:661-668, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0521-4
• Messner D, Schellnhuber HJ, Rahmstorf S & Klingenfeld D 2010 The budget approach: A framework for a global transformation toward a low-carbon economy. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 2, 031003, doi: 10.1063/1.3318695
• Meyn A, Schmidtlein S, Taylor SW, Girardin MP, Thonicke K & Cramer W 2010 Spatial variation in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920-2000. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19:272-283, doi: 10.1071/WF09055_AC
• Meyn A, Taylor SW, Flannigan MD, Thonicke K & Cramer W 2010 Relationship between fire, climate oscillations, and drought in British-Columbia, Canada, 1920-2000. Global Change Biology 16(3):977-989, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02061.x
• Montoya M, Born A & Levermann A 2010 Reversed North Atlantic gyre dynamics in glacial climate. Climate Dynamics , doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0729-y
• Neumann K, Verburg PH, Stehfest E & Müller C 2010 The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis. Agricultural Systems 103(5):316-326, doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004
• Popp A, Lotze-Campen H & Bodirsky B 2010 Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO₂ greenhouse gases from agricultural production. Global Environmental Change 20:451-462, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001
• Poulter B², Aragão L, Heyder U, Gumpenberger M, Heinke J, Langerwisch F, Rammig A, Thonicke K & Cramer W 2010 Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21^st century. Global Change Biology 16(7):2062-2075, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02064.x
• Rammig A, Jupp T, Thonicke K, Tietjen B, Heinke J, Ostberg S, Lucht W, Cramer W & Cox P 2010 Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback. New Phytologist 187: 694–706, doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03318.x
• Rammig A, Jonas T, Zimmermann NE & Rixen C 2010 Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions. Biogeosciences 7:2013-2024, doi: 10.5194/bg-7-2013-2010
• Rammig A, Jönsson AM, Hickler T, Smith B, Bärring L & Sykes MT 2010 Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model. Ecological Modelling 221(2):303-313, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.05.014
• Robinson A, Calov R & Ganopolski A 2010 An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change. The Cryosphere 4:129-144
• Rogelj J, Nabel J, Chen C, Hare W, Markmann K, Meinshausen M, Schaeffer M, Macey K & Höhne N 2010 Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry. Nature 464(7292):1126-1128, doi: 10.1038/4641126a
• Schewe J & Levermann A 2010 The role of meridional density gradients for a wind-driven overturning. Climate Dynamics 34(4):547-556, doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0572-1
• Thonicke K, Spessa A, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Dong L & Carmona-Moreno C 2010 The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model. Biogeosciences 7:1991-2011, doi: 10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010
• Tietjen B, Jeltsch F, Zehe E, Classen N, Groengroeft A, Schiffers K & Oldeland J 2010 Effects of climate change on the coupled dynamics of water and vegetation in drylands. Ecohydrology, 3, 226–237, doi: 10.1002/eco.70
• Von Bloh W, Kossacki KJ, Franck S & Bounama C 2010 Diurnal habitability of frozen worlds. Earth, Moon, and Planets 106(1):15-26, doi: 10.1007/s11038-009-9343-6
• Von Bloh W, Rost S, Gerten D & Lucht W 2010 Efficient parallelization of a dynamic global vegetation model with river routing. Environmental Modelling and Software 25(6):685-690, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.11.012
• Von Bloh W, Bounama C & Franck S 2010 Photosynthesis in the Milky Way. Plant Science 178, 485-490.

Papers published in 2009

• Allen MR, Frame DJ, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Meinshausen M & Meinshausen N 2009 Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 458:1163-1166 (30 April 2009), doi: 10.1038/nature08019
• Babanin AV, Ganopolski A & Phillips WRC 2009 Wave-induced upper-ocean mixing in a climate model of intermediate complexity. Ocean Modelling 29:189–197, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.04.003
• Badeck F-W¹, Fontaine J-L, Dumas F & Ghashghaie J 2009 Consistent patterns in leaf lamina and leaf vein carbon isotope composition across ten herbs and tree species. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry 23:2455-2460, doi: 10.1002/rcm.4054
• Blaum N, Tietjen B & Rossmanith E 2009 Impact of livestock husbandry on small- and medium-sized carnivores in Kalahari savannah rangelands. Journal of Wildlife Management 73:60-67, doi: 10.2193/2008-034
• Born A, Levermann A & Mignot J 2009 Sensitivity of the Atlantic ocean circulation to a hydraulic overflow parameterisation in a coarse resolution model: response of the subpolar gyre. Ocean Modeling, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.11.006
• Brovkin V¹, Petoukhov V, Claussen M, Bauer E, Archer D & Jaeger C 2009 Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure. Climatic Change 92(3-4):243-259, doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9490-1
• Bustamante MMC, Melillo J, Connor DJ, Hardy H, Lambin E, Lotze-Campen H, Ravindranath NH, Searchinger TD, Tschirley J & Watson H 2009 What are the Final Land Limits. Chapter 16 in Howarth RW & Bringezu S (eds) Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Proceedings of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment, 22-25 September 2008, Gummersbach, Germany. Download at http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/
• Calov R, Ganopolski A, Kubatzki C & Claussen M 2009 Mechanisms and time scales of glacial inception simulated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past 5:245-258
• Churkina G, Brovkin V¹, von Bloh W, Trusilova K, Jung M & Dentener F 2009 Synergy of rising nitrogen depositions and atmospheric CO₂ on land carbon uptake offsets global warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23:GB4027, doi: 10.1029/2008GB003291
• Coumou D, Driesner T, Geiger S, Paluszny A & Heinrich CA 2009 High-Resolution 3D Simulations of Mid-ocean Ridge Hydrothermal Systems. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1029/2008JB006121
• Coumou D, Driesner T, Weis P & Heinrich CA 2009 Phase-separation, brine formation and salinity variation at black smoker hydrothermal systems. Journal of Geophysical Research 114, B03212, doi: 10.1029/2008JB005764
• Doktor D, Bondeau A, Koslowski D & Badeck F-W¹ 2009 Influence of heterogeneous landscapes on computed green-up dates based on daily AVHRR NDVI observations. Remote Sensing of Environment 113(12):2618-2632, doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2009.07.020
• Feulner G 2009 Climate modelling of mass-extinction events: a review. International Journal of Astrobiology, 8(3):207-212, doi: 10.1017/S1473550409990061
• Ganopolski A & Roche D 2009 On the nature of lead-lag relationships during glacial-interglacial climate transitions. Quaternary Science Reviews 28(27-28):3361-3378, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.019
• Goelzer H, Levermann A & Rahmstorf S 2009 Two-way coupling of an ENSO model to the global climate model CLIMBER-3α. Ocean Modeling 29:94-101, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.03.004
• Hofmann M & Morales Maqueda MA 2009 Geothermal heat flux and its influence on the oceanic abyssal circulation and radiocarbon distribution. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L03603, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036078
• Hofmann M & Rahmstorf S 2009 On the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. (+Supporting Online Material) Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences 106(49):20584-20589, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0909146106
• Hofmann M & Schellnhuber HJ 2009 Oceanic acidification affects marine carbon pump and triggers extended marine oxygen holes. Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences 106(9):3017-3022 (open access), doi: 10.1073/pnas.0813384106
• Holsten A, Vetter T, Vohland K² & Krysanova V 2009 Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg and consequences for nature conservation areas. Ecological Modelling (online), doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.038
• Jin L, Peng Y, Chen F & Ganopolski A 2009 Modeling sensitivity study of the possible impact of snow and glaciers developing over Tibetan Plateau on Holocene African-Asian summer monsoon climate. Climate of the Past 5:457–469
• Kawa SR, Stolarski RS, Newman PA, Douglass AR, Rex M, Hofmann DJ, Santee ML & Frieler K 2009 Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 9:13327-13354
• Kuhlbrodt T, Rahmstorf S, Zickfeld K, Vikebø F, Sundby S, Hofmann M, Link PM, Bondeau A, Cramer W & Jaeger C 2009 An integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change 96(4):489-537, doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y
• Lehsten V, Tansey K, Balzter H, Thonicke K, Spessa A, Weber U, Smith B & Arneth A 2009 Estimating carbon emissions from African wildfires. Biogeosciences 6:349-360, www.biogeosciences.net/6/349/2009/
• Levermann A, Schewe J, Petoukhov V & Held H 2009 Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions. Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences 106(49):20572-20577, doi: 10.1073/PNAS.0901414106
• Lotze-Campen H & Schellnhuber HJ 2009 Climate impacts and adaptation options in agriculture: what we know and what we don't know. J Cons Prot & Food Safety 4:145-150, doi: 10.1007/s00003-009-0473-6
• Marzeion B & Levermann A 2009 Stratification-dependent mixing may increase sensitivity of a wind-driven Atlantic overturning to surface freshwater flux. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L20602, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039947
• Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SCB, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ & Allen MR 2009 Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C. Nature 458:1158-1162 (30 April 2009), doi: 10.1038/nature08017
• Pitman AJ, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Cruz FT, Davin EL, Bonan GB, Brovkin V¹, Claussen M, Delire C, Ganzeveld L, Gayler V, van den Hurk BJJM, Lawrence PJ, van der Molen MK, Müller C, Reick CH, Seneviratne SI, Strengers BJ & Voldoire A 2009 Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophysical Research Letters (open access), doi: 10.1029/2009GL039076
• Poulter B² & Cramer W 2009 Satellite remote sensing of tropical forest canopy dynamics. International Journal of Remote Sensing 30(24):6575-6590, doi: 10.1080/01431160903242005
• Poulter B², Feldman RL, Brinson MM, Horton BP, Orbach MK, Pearsall SH, Reyes E, Riggs SR & Whitehead JC 2009 Sea-level rise research and dialogue in North Carolina: Creating windows for policy change. Ocean & Coastal Management 52:147-153, doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2008.09.010
• Poulter B², Heyder U & Cramer W 2009 Modelling the sensitivity of the seasonal cycle of GPP to dynamic LAI and soil depths in tropical rainforests. Ecosystems 12:517-533, doi: 10.1007/s10021-009-9238-4
• Poulter B², Qian SS & Christensen NL 2009 Determinants of coastal treeline and the role of abiotic and biotic interactions. Plant Ecology 202:55-66, doi: 10.1007/s11258-008-9465-3
• Prasad S, Witt A, Kienel U, Dulski P, Bauer E & Yancheva G 2009 The 8.2 ka event: evidence for seasonal differences and the rate of climate change in western Europe. Global and Planetary Change 67:218-226, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.011
• Rammig A & Fahse L 2009 Simulating forest succession after blowdown events: The crucial role of space for a realistic management. Ecological Modelling 220(24):3555-3564, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.040
• Rogelj J, Hare B, Nabel J, Macey K, Schaeffer M, Markmann K & Meinshausen M 2009 Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2°C. Nature Reports Climate Change, commentary 3:81-83, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/climate.2009.57
• Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V¹, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, Held H, Van Nes EH, Rietkerk M & Sugihara G 2009 Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53-59, doi: 10.1038/nature08227
• Schlenk F, Frieler K, Nagel A, Vajkoczy P & Sarrafzadeh AS 2009 Cerebral microdialysis for detection of bacterial meningitis in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients: a cohort study. Critical Care 13:R2, doi: 10.1186/cc7689
• Schneider N, Frieler K, Pfeiffer E, Lehmkuhl U & Salbach-Andrae H 2009 Comparison of body size estimation in adolescents with different types of eating disorders. Eur Eat. Disorders Rev. 17:468-475, doi: 10.1002/erv.956
• Smith JB, Schneider SH, Oppenheimer M, Yohe GW, Hare W, Mastrandrea MD, Patwardhan A, Burton I, Corfee-Morlot J, Magadza CHD, Fuessel HM, Pittock AB, Rahman A, Suarez A & van Ypersele JP 2009 Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern". Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences 106:4133-4137, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0812355106
• Tagesson T, Smith B, Löfgren A, Rammig A, Eklundh L & Lindroth A 2009 Estimating net primary production of Swedish forest landscapes by combining mechanistic modelling and remote sensing. Ambio 38:316-324
• Tietjen B, Zehe E & Jeltsch F 2009 Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change: A generic model of two soil layers. Water Resources Research 45, W01418, doi: 10.1029/2007WR006589
• Vermeer M & Rahmstorf S 2009 Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences 106:4133-4137 (supporting online material), doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907765106
• Vohland K² & Barry B 2009 A review of in situ rainwater harvesting (RWH) practices modifying landscape functions in African drylands. Agriculture Ecosystems and & Environment 131:119-127, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2009.01.010
• Von Bloh W, Cuntz M, Schröder K-P, Bounama C & Franck S 2009 Habitability of super-Earth planets around other suns: Models including red giant branch evolution. Astrobiology 9(6):593-602, doi: 10.1089/ast.2008.0285
• Walther GR, Roques A, Hulme PE, Sykes MT, Pyšek P, Kühn I, Zobel M and members of the ALARM Climate Change – Biological Invasions Working Group (Bacher S, Botta-Dukát Z, Bugmann H, Czúcz B, Dauber J, Hickler T, Jarošík V, Kenis M, Klotz S, Minchin D, Moora M, Nentwig W, Ott J, Panov VE, Reineking B, Robinet C, Semenchenko V, Solarz W, Thuiller W, Vilà M, Vohland K² & Settele J) 2009 Alien species in a warmer world - risks and opportunities. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24(12):686-693, doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.008

¹guest scientist in Earth System Analysis Domain

²previous member of Earth System Analysis Domain