The Price of Land

Research Activity at PIK

Research Questions

1. How will a strong future increase in bioenergy demand affect land rents? What are the limits of global bioenergy production due to the availability of land and water?
2. What is the role of technological change in competing uses of land and water for food production, energy production, forestry and biodiversity conservation?
3. How important are changes in food demand patterns and habits for global land use patterns and land-use related emissions?
4. What is an optimal global land use strategy for maintaining species and landscape diversity?

Scientific Objective

All human activities are embedded and constrained by ecosystem processes and functions. However, in the present time the extent of human use of the biosphere alters these processes and functions on a global scale. Human society appropriates about one quarter of total net primary production of the terrestrial biosphere. Production of food, energy and materials, and the related use of land and water account for crucial components and interactions in the Earth System. Our research focus is on the competition for land and water under future scenarios of rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies. World population will grow to about 9 billion people by the year 2050. As economic wealth increases, people consume more food, and the dietary share of animal products increases. Demand for energy, fibre, forest products, and other biomass-based materials will also strongly increase, especially in currently poor regions which are still in an early stage of economic development. Moreover, there is an increasing area demand for settlements and infrastructure, nature conservation and recreation. With limited availability of land at heterogeneous qualities, it is unclear, how this allocation and management puzzle can be solved.

Overview and Structure

The global land and water use model MAgPIE in connection with the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL provides a consistent link between economic development, food and energy demand in different world regions with spatially explicit patterns of production, land use change and water constraints. The macroeconomic and climate policy feedbacks will be provided by the REMIND model in RD3. As an economic optimisation model, MAgPIE will be used to derive economic values (rents) of land and water resources used in production.

Land management and technological change

While crop productivity has continuously grown in the past, a slowing pace has to be expected in many regions in the future. Water may pose the most serious limitation to future global food and bioenergy supplies. Rising crop outputs per unit of land and water are essential to feed growing demands. In addition, climate change will alter regional water availability and yield potentials, with tropical regions potentially most strongly affected. The technological and organisational changes required to increase productivity will only be achieved through continuous investments and appropriate institutional settings and incentives. The allocation of land and water resources for different human uses has to be consciously managed. The potential and limitations of different options and the trade-offs between land expansion, increased land use intensity and re-allocation between different uses have to be carefully assessed.

Climate change mitigation

One important aspect in future land management and climate change mitigation will be the global and regional potential of biomass energy, and the role of area expansion, productivity increase and other technological changes. Scenarios on quantities and costs of supplying different types of biomass under spatially explicit land, water and ecosystem guardrails will be fed into the REMIND energy system modelling framework in RD III. In addition, future scenarios on land-use related emission of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O will also be generated. This will provide crucial information on the potential of climate change mitigation through avoided deforestation and reduced non-CO₂ emissions in agricultural production.

Relevance to PIK

• relates to the core mission of PIK, i.e. integrated modelling of global change, climate impacts and sustainable development,
• addresses crucial sustainability questions beyond climate change,
• builds on PIK´s core RD1, RD2 and RD3 model experience (LPJmL, MAgPIE, REMIND), is supported by PIK’s RD4 database and computation capabilities and builds on the reputation from earlier projects, namely the ICLIPS project and BIOS-X,
• has a strong inter-disciplinary component by coupling a spatially aggregated macroeconomic modeling framework with a spatially explicit biosphere modeling framework,
• develops a global land and water allocation model for assessing trade-offs between different land use options, strategies, and patterns,
• will prepare and support the development of an Earth System Simulator by providing important components,
• has strong personal links to RD II (A. Bondeau, Improved crop modelling in LPJmL), RD III (A. Popp): Implementation of macroeconomic and energy scenarios from REMIND), and RD IV (M. Wrobel): Database management for model inputs and results.

Staff

Group leader:

• Hermann Lotze-Campen, (Group-Leader)
• Alexander Popp, (Co-Leader), Research Domain 3 (RD3)

Post-docs:

• Anne Biewald
• Christoph Müller

Ph.D. students:

• Benjamin Bodirsky
• Jan Philipp Dietrich
• Michael Krause
• Christoph Schmitz
• Katharina Waha
• Isabelle Weindl

Student assistants:

• Henny Haelbich
• Julia Reinhardt
• Pia Rothe

Associated:

• Nico Bauer, RD3
• Tim Beringer, RD2
• Alberte Bondeau, RD2
• Marianela Fader, RD2
• Dieter Gerten, RD2
• David Klein, RD3
• Wolfgang Lucht, RD2

Poster

The Price of Land

Publications

Selected publications:

• Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Bodirsky, B. (2010): Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production. Global Environmental Change (accepted) [ISI]
• Knopf, B., Edenhofer, O., Flachsland, C., Kok, M.T.J., Lotze-Campen, H., Luderer, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P. (2010): Managing the low-carbon transition - From model results to policies. The Energy Journal, Volume 31 (Special Issue 1: The Economics of Low Stabilization), in press.[ISI]
  
• Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Beringer, T., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., Lucht, W. (2009): Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade. Ecological Modelling, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002 [ISI]
• Lotze-Campen, H., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2009): Climate impacts and adaptation options in agriculture: what we know and what we don't know. Journal für Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit (Journal for Consumer Protection and Food Safety) 4: 145-150. DOI 10.1007/s00003-009-0473-6 [ISI]
• Bustamante, M.M.C., Melillo, J., Connor, D.J., Hardy, H., Lambin, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Ravindranath, N.H., Searchinger, T.D., Tschirley, J., Watson, H. (2009): What are the Final Land Limits. Chapter 16 in Howarth, R.W., and Bringezu, S., (eds.): Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Proceedings of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment, 22-25 September 2008, Gummersbach, Germany. Download at http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/.
• Lotze-Campen, H., Claussen, L., Dosch, A., Noleppa, S., Rock, J., Schuler, J., Uckert, G. (2009): Klimawandel und Kulturlandschaft Berlin. Bericht im Auftrag der Senatsverwaltung Stadtentwicklung Berlin, Berliner Stadtgüter GmbH, Berliner Forsten und der Gemeinsamen Landesplanung Berlin-Brandenburg. Berlin. Download as pdf.
• Popp A., Blaum N. and Jeltsch, F. (2009) Ecohydrological feedback mechanisms in arid rangelands: Simulating the impacts of topography and landuse. Basic and Applied Ecology, 10: 319-329. doi:10.1016/j.baae.2008.06.002. [available online]
• Popp A., Domptail S., Blaum N. and Jeltsch F. (2009) Land use experience does qualify for adaptation to climate change. Ecological Modelling, 220(5): 694-702. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.015. [available online]
• Vohland K., Badeck F., Popp A., Holsten A., Cramer W. (2009) Naturschutzgebiete im Klimawandel – Risiken für Schutzziele und Handlungsoptionen. Klimaszenarien und Vulnerabilitäten. BfN-Skripten 246: 11-14. [available online]
• Müller C (2009): Climate Change Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa - An overview and analysis of Scenarios and Models. Discussion Paper, German Development Institute, Bonn, Germany.[available online]
• Pitman, AJ, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Cruz FT, Davin EL, Bonan GB, Brovkin V, Claussen M, Delire C, Gayler V, van den Hurk BJJM, Lawrence PJ, van der Molen MK, Müller C, Reick CH, Seneviratne SI, Strengers BJ, Voldoire A (in press): Land use and climate via the LUCID intercomparison study: implications for experimental design in AR5. Geophysical Reserach Letters. [available online with supplementary material]
• Krause, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A. (2009): Spatially-explicit scenarios on global cropland expansion and available forest land in an integrated modelling framework. Selected reviewed paper presented at the 27th International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference in Beijing, China, August 16-22, 2009. International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), Milwaukee, USA. AgEcon. 22p. [available online]
• Krause, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A. (2009): Global cropland conversion in a spatially-explicit scenario on available land in an integrated modelling framework. Selected reviewed paper presented at the GTAP Twelfth Annual Conference in Santiago, Chile, June 10-12, 2009. GTAP Resource #4526. 26p. [available online]
• Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., Popp A., Lucht, W. (2008): Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach. Agricultural Economics, 39(3): 325-338. doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x. [available online]
• Lotze-Campen, H.; Reusswig, F.; Stoll-Kleemann, S. (2008): Integrated Socio-Ecological Monitoring of Biodiversity Change - Building upon the World Network of Biosphere Reserves. GAIA 17/S1: 107-115. [ISI]
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): The role of modelling tools in Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA). International Journal for Innovation and Sustainable Development 317(1/2): 70-92.
• Edenhofer, O., Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Emissionen müssen etwas kosten. In: Welt-Sichten 2008(5), p. 9-11.
• Vohland, K., Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Biodiversity and Climate Change. In: Rural 21, Vol 42(2), p. 11-13.
• Domptail S., Popp A. and Nuppenau E. (2008) Management objectives and practices of commercial farmers in southern Namibia: between rangeland health and income generation. Kontoleon A., Pascual U., Smale M. (Eds): 'Agrobiodiversity Conservation and Economic Development'. Routledge. [available online]
• Edenhofer, O.; Luderer, G.; Flachsland, C.; Füssel, H.; Popp, A.; Knopf, B.; Feulner,  G.; Held, H. (2008): A Global Contract on Climate Change. Policy paper for the conference "A Global Contract Based on Climate Justice: The Need for a New Approach Concerning International Relations" in Brussels, 11 November 2008. 76 pp.
• Edenhofer, O.; Luderer, G.; Flachsland, C.; Füssel, H.; Popp, A.; Knopf, B.; Feulner,  G.; Held, H. (2008): A Global Contract on Climate Change. Summary. 10 pp.
• Schroeder A., Popp A. and Vohland K. (2008) Den Schutz der Wälder gerecht gestalten! Robin Wood Magazin 98
• Schroeder A., Vohland K. and Popp A. (2008) Wald ist nicht nur eine Kohlenstoffsenke. Welt-sichten, 5-2008.

Selected presentations

• Haberl, H., Priess, J., Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Convenor of the parallel session "Biomass and bioenergy use as drivers of global land system change". IHDP Open Meeting 2009, Bonn, 28 Apr 2009.
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Global trade-offs between land expansion, intensification and international trade: the role of technological change in agriculture. IHDP Open Meeting 2009, Bonn, 28 Apr 2009.
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Klimawirkungen der Welternährung - Herausforderungen an eine klimaschonende globale Agrarproduktion. Tagung des Verbandes der Landwirtschaftskammern e.V. und des Bundesarbeitskreises Düngung (BAD), Würzburg, 21 Apr 2009.
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Ökonomische Bewertung der Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung. DLG-/GFP-Symposium "Klimawandel: Züchtung für extreme Umwelten", Bonn, 25-26 Mar 2009
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Technological change in agriculture and the trade-offs between land expansion, intensification and international trade, IARU Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, 12 Mar 2009
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade - A global bio-economic modelling approach, FORESIGHT Expert Workshop on Global Food Modelling, London, UK, 09 Mar 2009
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Prioritäten für nationale Politik und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit vor dem Hintergrund von Klimafolgen, 12. Entwicklungspolitisches Seminar, Erfurt, 22 Jan 2009
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2009): Landwirtschaft und Klimawandel - Teil des Problems oder Teil der Lösung? Klimaforum Deutscher Bauernverband, Berlin, 20 Jan 2009
• Popp A. (2009) On sustainability of bio-energy production: integrating co-emissions from agricultural intensification. IHDP Open Meeting 2009, Bonn, 28 Apr 2009.
• Popp A. and Lotze-Campen H. (2009) The net-benefit of bio-energy for climate change mitigation. Proceedings of the IARU International Congress "Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions", Copenhagen, Denmark. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6, 112013. [online available at doi: 10.1088/1755-1307/6/24/242007]
• Krause, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Vohland, K.; Cramer, W. (accepted): Implications of biodiversity conservation areas on spatially-explicit available land for global cropland expansion in an integrated modelling framework. Poster presentation, Second DIVERSITAS Open Science Conference “Biodiversity and society: understanding connections, adapting to change” in Cape Town, South Africa, October 13-16, 2009. DIVERSITAS Paris, France.
• Krause, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A. (2009): Spatially-explicit scenarios on global cropland expansion and available forest land in an integrated modelling framework. Poster presentation, 27th International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference "The new landscape of global agriculture" in Beijing, China, August 16-22, 2009. International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), Milwaukee, USA.
• Krause, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A. (2009): Global cropland conversion in a spatially-explicit scenario on available land in an integrated modelling framework. Oral presentation, GTAP Twelfth Annual Conference "Trade Integration and Sustainable Development: Looking for an Inclusive World” in Santiago, Chile, June 10-12, 2009. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile.
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Volle Tanks – leere Teller? Chancen und Risiken der Bioenergie, Kathedralforum Dresden, Ringvorlesung der Katholischen Akademie, Dresden, 25 Nov 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Klimawandel und Kulturlandschaft Berlin, Lenné-Symposium, Berlin, 20 Nov 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Climate Change and Global Agriculture: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation, International Conference "World Ethanol 2008", Paris, France, 5-6 Nov 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale, ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq, France, 07 Sep 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Impacts of rising food and bioenergy demand on land and water use, Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) Workshop "Bioenergy and Earth Sustainability", Piracicaba, Brazil, 19 Jul 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Landwirtschaft und Klimawandel - Auswirkungen, Anpassung und Vermeidung, Gemeinsame Veranstaltung des Deutschen Bauernverbandes (DBV) und der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ): "Boomende Agrarmärkte – Eine Chance für die Landwirte weltweit?!", Berlin, 13 May 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Challenges in bio-economic modelling of land and water use on the global scale, International Conference on "Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes", organized by SENSOR IP, Berlin, 08 Apr 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Challenges in large-scale modelling and monitoring of land and water use, NKGCF Kolloquium "Umgang mit dem Klimawandel", Bad Honnef, 03 Apr 2008
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft in Europa, Einführungsvortrag, Fachöffentliche Konferenz der SPD-Bundestagsfraktion, Berlin, 03 Mar 2008.
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Der Klimawandel – Wasserknappheit und Ernährungssicherung, Vortrag zur 37. Wissenschaftlichen Informationstagung, Berliner Gesellschaft für Getreideforschung, Berlin, 17 Jan 2008.
• Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Workshop on the Global Green-Blue-Water Initiative, Stockholm, 14-15 Jan 2008 (Co-organisation and co-sponsoring together with Stockholm Environment Institute SEI).
• Popp A. (2008) Food demand, productivity growth and the spatial distribution of land and water use: a global modelling approach. ESF-FMSH Entre-Sciences Conference: Interdisciplinary Environmental Sciences New Methodologies and Interdisciplinary Approaches in Global Change Research. Porquerolles, France [available online]
• Popp A. (2008) Impacts of rising food and bioenergy demand. Proceedings of the International Symposium "Climate Change and Global Sustainability", Potsdam, Germany, 27-29 October 2008.
• Popp A. (2008) Die Lebensmittelproduktion als Verursacher und Betroffener des Klimawandels. Verbraucherpolitisches Forum der Verbraucherzentrale Bundesverband e.V. zur Grünen Woche
• Krause, M.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. (2008): Spatial explicitness in a bio-economic modelling approach: Food demand, productivity growth and the spatial distribution of land and water use. Oral presentation, Summer Conference "Modelling the Spatial Economy" in Kiel, Germany, July 3-5, 2008. European Regional Science Association, German Speaking Section August Lösch Association (ERSA), Germany.