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Biotic risks of climate change in different ecosystems

Much is known about risks of climate change for ecosystems but substantial gaps exist as well. We investigate for important European terrestrial ecosystems how these risks can be quantified and modelled in a service context, and how recommendations for the development of land use can be derived on European and national scale. Risks taken into account are extremes in temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and invasive species. Using LPJmL, LPJ-GUESS, 4C, and SWIM new approaches will be developed to analyze macro-scale landscape diversity and fundamental trophic interactions, aiming an improved quantification of ecosystem services. In addition to land-based systems (forests, agroecosystems), we hope to be able to explore how freshwater ecosystems are impacted by changing regimes in hydrology and coastal processes.

Staff involved Planned products Cooperation External funding
Wolfgang Cramer
Anja Rammig
Britta Tietjen
Katrin Vohland
  • pan-European vulnerability assessment involving diversity-based risk metrics (ALARM, C-Extreme) - end 2008 (update 2010)
  • damage cost estimates for ecosystem loss in Europe - end 2009
  • advanced modelling concept and implementation - 2009
UFZ Leipzig (Settele)
Univ. Lund (Hickler)
SEI Oxford (Downing)
MPI Jena (Reichstein)
CEREGE (Guiot)
CEFE (Misson)
PIK RD3 (Held)
EU (CarboEurope-IP, ALARM, C-Extreme, ClimateCost)
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