Expected Outcomes
A climate change damage function library. For some sectors (e.g., agriculture and forestry), advanced tools for the estimation of sensitivity exist, but these are usually inadequate for cross-sectoral integration. In order to overcome this limitation, and to cover more sectors, a damage function library will be constructed from a broad range of sources. We will classify observed factors affecting the multiple impacts of global change, e.g. on human health, ecosystems, infrastructure and other systems. New factors will be identified.
Monetary and non-monetary valuation techniques for the relative importance of damages in different sectors. These will be applied in regional settings, based on different socio-economic scenarios. New emphasis will be given to extreme scenarios in order to better sample the range of possible future risk situations. Current regional vulnerability studies (e.g., on the Elbe catchment) will be extended. Findings and tools will also be tested on selected regions elsewhere (e.g., China, Amazonia).
A meta-database of functions and indicators for vulnerability studies and adaptation strategies. The database would allow the assessment of multiple drivers of global change. It could serve as a basis for economic assessment and other valuation studies, as well as for delivery of policy support in private and public institutions.
A toolbox for the generation of socio-economic and climate scenarios suitable for vulnerability assessment in different regions and at the continental to global scale (including techniques to study vulnerability to changing extreme event frequencies).
Integration of findings from regional studies and the UBA Germany Study to a new study of German national vulnerability.
Maps of vulnerability at the global scale, using variable resolution and multiple indicators.
