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Benutzerspezifische Werkzeuge
- Info
Climate diagrams for observational and scenario data
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The application we present here allows the user to compare
climate scenario data developed at PIK for the German part of the Elbe
basin for the years 2001 to 2055 with observational data
[1]
recorded nationwide for the period 1951 to 1998/2000.
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Scenario models represent one possibility of estimating future climate trends.
They are not forecasts, but rather "if - then"-type assessments.
If the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases,
then the atmosphere's temperature changes. The IPCC Third Assessment Report
[2]
presents various scenarios with different levels of increase of global
carbon dioxide concentration.
In order to extract from the resulting global climate changes conclusions about
regional climate changes, appropriate regional climate models are used.
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The scenario data discussed here for the German part of the Elbe river basin
are based on Scenario A1B of the IPCC, which represents a moderate,
business-as-usual development path.
For the Elbe basin it corresponds to a mean increase in air
temperature of around 1.4°C between the years 2001 and 2055.
A statistical regional climate scenario model [3] was used to calculate the most likely scenario for precipitation changes.
This indicates, e.g., for the federal state of Brandenburg, a mean decrease
in precipitation of about 80 mm per year
[4]. This scenario, however, represents only one of several possibilities
for future temperature and precipitation changes.
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Observation and scenario data are presented by means of dynamically generated
climate diagrams using the methods of Walter
[5]
and Thornthwaite
[6]. A hierarchic digital atlas permits the stations to be shown in their
spatial context (Fig. 1). A simple click on any station with the left-hand mouse
button opens a visualisation of the relevant station data (Fig. 2).
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| Fig. 1 |
Fig. 2 |
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Further developments planned for the future are
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to shift the transition between the reference and the scenario data from the year 2001 to 2004,
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to extend the scenario data base to cover the whole of Germany,
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to apply the technique of dynamic generation of climate diagrams to gridded data structures of global relevance.
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Click the button to the right of this text to open the diagram generator
[7]. If this button is not visible,
you first need to activate your browser's
Java Virtual Machine.
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[1]
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The original data were kindly made available by the German Weather Service
DWD.
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[2]
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IPCC (2001), Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK
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[3]
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Werner, P.C., Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (1997), A proposal for the development of climate impact scenarios. Climate Research, 8, 3, 171-182
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[4]
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Gerstengarbe, F.-W. et al. (2003), Studie
zur klimatischen Entwicklung im Land Brandenburg bis 2055 und deren
Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt, die Forst- und Landwirtschaft
sowie die Ableitung erster Perspektiven.
PIK-Report No. 83, Potsdam
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[5]
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Walter, H., Lieth, H. (1964), Klimadiagramm-Weltatlas. Verlag Gustav Fischer, Jena
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[6]
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Borchert, G. (1993), Klimageographie in Stichworten. Ferdinand Hirt, Berlin
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[7]
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The application was developed at PIK by the working group on Scientific Data Management.
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Optimized for
Netscape/Mozilla 1.7 (Win), Firefox 1.0 (Win), Internet Explorer 5 (Win), Konqueror (Linux/KDE), Safari (Mac).
The browser needs to provide an enabled Java Virtual Machine (JVM 1.1 or higher).
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erstellt von Markus Wrobel
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zuletzt verändert:
Nov 10, 2006 03:51 PM
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