Regional Climate Modelling and Integrated Global Change Impact Studies in the European Arctic - CLIMPACT

PIK Contribution Leader: Wolfgang Cramer

Although there is now almost universal agreement that human activities will cause at least some significant global warming, particularly at high latitudes, there is much greater uncertainty over the likely economic impact of such changes at the regional level. PIK is involved in this project on impact research about the European Arctic in cooperation with other institutes, supported as a European Science Foundation Science Network under the coordination of Manfred Lange at the University of Münster.

The European Arctic has been chosen as a research field for several reasons. First, although not itself a heavily populated region, changes in the Arctic may have impacts on the climate of Europe as a whole. Secondly, global climate models have already indicated that future warming will be particularly pronounced in the Arctic, more so than in temperate and tropical regions, and more so also than in the Antarctic. Sea ice and snow cover in the Arctic will likely be reduced to a much greater extent than in the Antarctic, causing a feedback effect through increased absorption of solar short-wave radiation by the ocean. The challenge for the network is firstly to determine the extent of the climate changes, and then to asses their impact.

To resolve what this impact is likely to be, progress is needed at two levels. First, it is necessary to model climate change more accurately at the regional level. This will be done both by developing new regional climate models or extending existing ones, and also by interpolating or downscaling from global models. Secondly, the socio-economic and environmental impact of these anticipated changes needs to be determined. The CLIMPACT network does not provide research funds in itself, but bundles research activities from a range of participating institutes.