Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems - WISE
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European Network Activities on Global Change
PIK Contribution Leader: Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber
The objective of the project, co-ordinated by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (U.K.) with partners from the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (The Netherlands), the Fondazione Enrico Mattei Milano (Italy), and PIK, is to perform empirical studies of the impacts of climatic extremes - in particular hot summers, warm winters and wind storms - on natural, social and economic systems in Europe.
Most studies of potential socio-economic impacts of climate change draw upon scenarios of future climate and of future economic development. Another approach, which has been pursued only recently, is to analyse observed impacts of recent climate extremes on economies and societies. Empirical studies can provide useful information about the nature and scale of impacts on different sectors and upon the way in which different regions or cultures respond to them.
The impacts of recent hot summers, warm winters and wind storms on the economies, societies and natural environments of the countries of the contributing institutes are studied primarily through quantitative analysis of published economic data. A sector-wise approach is taken, and a core group of the sectors agriculture, tourism, energy, water, and fire was selected in order to allow regional comparisons on an international level. As far as possible, a monetary value is placed on the impacts which are found to result from the extreme weather conditions. In order to assess possible time-dependent changes in the sensitivities of systems to climate extremes, a comparison with the impact of an earlier event from the 1970s is carried out. In addition, transnational impacts are examined through case studies of perturbation in international tourism and the flows of agricultural produce in response to climate extremes.
On the societal level, perceptions of the impacts of climate variability among the general public will be examined by questionnaire. Identification of the extent to which adaptations have already occurred or are in progress in response to a perceived increase in certain types of extreme weather phenomena are an important component of this research. Here, the findings of the PIK project on the northern hemisphere summer of 1992 are a valuable base.
National differences and similarities in impacts, adaptations and sensitivities to climate extremes and shocks, and their possible causes, will form the main findings of the project.
