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Biotic risks of climate change in different ecosystems

butterfly Team Members:
Anja Rammig, Christine Bounama

Guests:
Franz-W. Badeck, Wolfgang Cramer, Britta Tietjen, Katrin Vohland

Much is known about risks of climate change for ecosystems but substantial gaps exist as well. We investigate for important European terrestrial ecosystems how these risks can be quantified and modelled in a service context, and how recommendations for the development of land use can be derived on European and national scale. Risks taken into account are extremes in temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and invasive species. Using LPJmL, LPJ-GUESS, 4C, and SWIM new approaches will be developed to analyze macro-scale landscape diversity and fundamental trophic interactions, aiming an improved quantification of ecosystem services. In addition to land-based systems (forests, agroecosystems), we hope to be able to explore how freshwater ecosystems are impacted by changing regimes in hydrology and coastal processes.

Products

Planned products

  • Pan-European vulnerability assessment involving diversity-based risk metrics (ALARM, C-Extreme) - end 2008 (update 2010)
  • Damage cost estimates for ecosystem loss in Europe - end 2009
  • Advanced modelling concept and implementation - 2009

Projects

    Project Description Goals and Products Cooperation Contact Duration
    CarboExtreme Logo
    		 Improved knowledge of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to climate variability and extremes

    Factsheet
    		 (I) Representation and application of this knowledge over Europe,
    (II) Interpretation of the model predictions in terms of vulnerability,
    (III) According advice to EU climate and soil protection policies    		 MPI-BGC (M. Reichstein) W.Cramer A.Rammig C.Bounama 2009-2013
    ClimateCost_Logo.jpg
    		 Assessing the long-term costs of climate change with and without adaptation

    Factsheet
    		 Assessment of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, with a focus on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Focal regions: Europe, USA, India, China IIASA (M. Obersteiner), Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (A. Iglesias) B.Tietjen W.Cramer 2009-2011
    Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world

    Factsheet
    		 Assessment of the impacts of fire regimes and their interactions between climate, land-use, land-cover and socioeconomic factors. Focal regions: whole Europe and the Mediterranean, including all Mediterranean countries of the world. many K.Thonicke W.Cramer 2010-2013
    Greenhouse gas management in European land use systems

    Factsheet
    		 Improving our understanding and capacity for predicting the European terrestrial carbon and greenhouse gas budget. many F.Langerwisch W.Cramer 2010-2013
    Land-use intensity and Ecological Engineering – Assessment Tools for risks and Opportunities in irrigated rice based production systems


    		 Aims to advance long-term sustainable development of irrigated rice fields, against risks arising from multiple aspects of global change. many K. Thonicke
    F.Langerwisch
    		2011-2016

Past Projects

    Project Description Goals and Products Cooperation Contact Duration
    Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance Assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes in Europe many F.Badeck 2004-2009

    		Assessing large scale environmental risks for biodiversity with tested methods Assessment of the impacts of land use, chemicals climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Focal regions: Europe Univ. Lund (T. Hickler), UFZ and others K.Vohland 2004-2009
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