Press Releases

Edenhofer to advise „Energiewende Research Forum”

Jonas Viering — 2013-05-06T08:35:00Z

“The energy transformation is one of the greatest experiments that an industrial society ever performed,” Edenhofer said. “An experiment of this dimension needs to be supported by scientific policy advice.” This should be organized as a social learning process, he pointed out. “Science is mapping possible pathways, but it is up to politics to decide which way to go,” Edenhofer said.

The research forum brings together existing expertise on the energy transition in eight interdisciplinary thematic working groups. The group on economics that Ottmar Edenhofer has now been appointed to, is set to analyze the economic framework for the transition to a future energy system and is going to illuminate possible courses of action – for example what incentives could be useful, or how an adequate market design should look like.

Weblink to "Energiewende Research Forum": http://www.bmbf.de/en/12337.php

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The renowned Lewis Fry Richardson Medal is awarded to Jürgen Kurths

Sarah Messina — 2013-04-09T12:34:33Z

The European Geosciences Union honours Kurths as an “exceptional scientist” for his development of "important new methods in nonlinear time series analysis". Kurths’ ideas and methods “have opened new branches of theoretical research, and have triggered key applications in the Earth sciences and sustainability,” the EGU states. His studies of complex networks, recurrence and synchronization "have helped elucidate the relationships between major climate processes", such as the Indian monsoon and El Niño activities, or between abrupt changes of the climate in the last five million years and the development of hominids.

Kurths earned particular acknowledgement for his “large network of scientific collaborators” and the “noteworthy contributions to nonlinear dynamics and the geosciences” of his PhD students and postdocs. “Their personal and professional development and their subsequent success have much to do with Kurths’ positive, supportive, generous and nurturing personality,” the EGU states.

“I feel very honoured and I am deeply touched to receive this remarkable award, which I share with outstanding scientists like Benoît Mandelbrot,” Kurths says. Mandelbrot was one of the leading mathematicians of our century and is widely known for his work on fractals. “This distinction strengthens and encourages me to continue exploring our new pathways with great determination, and to keep on working on one of the great challenges of our time: to research the impacts of climate change on our lives by using complex systems science.”

The European Geosciences Union awards the Lewis Fry Richardson Medal since 1998. The award is named after the British meteorologist and peace researcher Lewis Fry Richardson who pioneered numeric methods of weather forecasting and first models of disarmament.

Weblink to the EGU: http://www.egu.eu/awards-medals/lewis-fry-richardson/

Weblink to more information on Jürgen Kurths: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/kurths/juergen-kurths?set_language=en

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Researchers support Berlin on its way to climate neutrality

Mareike Schodder — 2013-04-02T09:41:07Z

Until the end of the year, the researchers are going to map out scenarios for the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions in the city, aiming at a reduction of per capita emissions from roundabout six tons a year today to less than two tons a year. This amount would fit into the goal to limit global warming to less than two degrees. To achieve this, significant improvements in the energy efficiency of buildings are necessary as well as a massive integration of renewable energies and the conversion of the transport sector. A workshop with various stakeholders is starting in April.

“Berlin is a city of renters, with a rather average economic power in relation to the other German states,” PIK sociologist and head of the feasibility study, Fritz Reusswig, says. “Therefore it is crucial to point out practicable and socially acceptable paths to climate neutrality for Berlin. This is an exciting challenge for our team.” PIK is coordinating the pool of eight involved parties and will be responsible for the fields private households and consumption. “Without the active involvement of citizens, climate-neutrality cannot be achieved,” Reusswig says.

“We will have a perspective beyond Berlin itself in mind to develop our analysis and recommendations,” Bernd Hirschl from the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW) says, who is deputy head of the project. “A climate neutral Berlin will cooperate with the state of Brandenburg on different levels. We want to emphasize the economic advantages of climate neutrality”.

Senator Müller also aims at reaching beyond the feasibility study itself. “We are working on an idea for a Berlin legislation for the energy transformation. We know this is an ambitious plan that needs visioning as well as the whole city’s support. The feasibility study is an important milestone on the way to this legislation.” PIK director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber stressed the model character of the project: “Our institute analyses the impacts of climate change for the earth system – and develops solutions for very tangible problems and situations all the same. Two years ago we were advisors in climate mitigation and adaption for Brandenburg’s capital Potsdam as our home. We are glad to contribute our expertise for the German capital as well.”j

Members of the consortium headed by PIK are:

the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW), that worked on the “Energiekonzept 2020” for Berlin already
the energy consulting office BLS Energieplan
the Berlin office for urban development UmbauStadt
the Innovation Centre for Mobility and Societal Change (InnoZ) Berlin, with a focus on the transport sector
the Potsdam office Aerial image, Environment and Planning (LUP), which focuses on the potential of open spaces
the landscape architect office Becker, Giesecke, Mohren, Richards (bgmr)
the laywers office HFK advocates, that will map out the legal framework for the path to climate neutrality.

Registration for the workshops: Five parallel groups on energy supply, buildings, transport, economy and private households/consumption will meet on April 15th at InnoZ on the EUREF campus in Berlin Schöneberg (Torgauer Str.12-15). The event is public, due to limited space registration is needed. Please contact wiebke.lass@pik-potsdam.de.

Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere

Jonas Viering — 2013-02-25T20:05:00Z

“An important part of the global air motion in the mid-latitudes of the Earth normally takes the form of waves wandering around the planet, oscillating between the tropical and the Arctic regions. So when they swing up, these waves suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the US, and when they swing down, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic,” explains lead author Vladimir Petoukhov.

“What we found is that during several recent extreme weather events these planetary waves almost freeze in their tracks for weeks. So instead of bringing in cool air after having brought warm air in before, the heat just stays. In fact, we observe a strong amplification of the usually weak, slowly moving component of these waves,” says Petoukhov. Time is critical here: two or three days of 30 degrees Celsius are no problem, but twenty or more days lead to extreme heat stress. Since many ecosystems and cities are not adapted to this, prolonged hot periods can result in a high death toll, forest fires, and dramatic harvest losses.

Anomalous surface temperatures are disturbing the air flows

Climate change caused by greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil-fuel burning does not mean uniform global warming – in the Arctic, the relative increase of temperatures, amplified by the loss of snow and ice, is higher than on average. This in turn reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic and, for example, Europe, yet temperature differences are a main driver of air flow. Additionally, continents generally warm and cool more readily than the oceans. “These two factors are crucial for the mechanism we detected,” says Petoukhov. “They result in an unnatural pattern of the mid-latitude air flow, so that for extended periods the slow synoptic waves get trapped.”

The authors of the study developed equations that describe the wave motions in the extra-tropical atmosphere and show under what conditions those waves can grind to a halt and get amplified. They tested their assumptions using standard daily weather data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). During recent periods in which several major weather extremes occurred, the trapping and strong amplification of particular waves – like “wave seven” (which has seven troughs and crests spanning the globe) – was indeed observed. The data show an increase in the occurrence of these specific atmospheric patterns, which is statistically significant at the 90 percent confidence level.

The probability of extremes increases – but other factors come in as well

“Our dynamical analysis helps to explain the increasing number of novel weather extremes. It complements previous research that already linked such phenomena to climate change, but did not yet identify a mechanism behind it,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK and co-author of the study. “This is quite a breakthrough, even though things are not at all simple – the suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability.” Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definite conclusions.

Nevertheless, the study significantly advances the understanding of the relation between weather extremes and man-made climate change. Scientists were surprised by how far outside past experience some of the recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that.

Article: Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013): Quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Early Edition) [doi:10.1073/pnas.1222000110]

Weblink to the article (once it is published): www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222000110

Climate scientist Schellnhuber to brief UN Security Council

Jonas Viering — 2013-02-15T10:45:00Z

“With unabated greenhouse-gas emissions, humankind would venture into an uncertain future that is much hotter than ever before in its history – so from a scientist’s perspective, climate change is a global risk multiplier,” says Schellnhuber, director of PIK and chair of the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) for the German government. Many millions of people could be affected by severe climate change impacts. They range from sea-level rise that increases the frequency of severe coastal flooding, to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that could trigger, e.g., monsoon failures.

“Most remarkably, Pakistan and the UK together have called this meeting – illustrating, by action, that climate change is an issue for both developing and industrialized countries,” Schellnhuber says.

Climate change impacts might trigger social tipping dynamics

If the international community allows global mean temperature to rise way beyond the 2-degree limit that it agreed upon, major environmental tipping points could be crossed. “The Earth system shows a nonlinear response to greenhouse-gas emissions, so elements like the Amazon rainforest could react drastically if some warming thresholds are passed. This in turn might result in tipping international relations from a situation in which an initial increase of cooperation in face of a crisis shifts into a fierce competition for scarce natural resources, like food,” argues Schellnhuber. “However, another kind of social tipping dynamics is imaginable as well – with states, and people, becoming aware of the dangers ahead, and starting the great transformation towards sustainability.” One small example for this might be the German Energiewende (a rapid decarbonization of the national energy system).

Schellnhuber is the only scientist invited to the meeting. The other eminent speakers are Tony DeBrum, Minister-in-assistance to the President of the Marshall Islands, Rachel Kyte, Vice President of Sustainable Development at the World Bank, and Gyan Acharya, Under-Secretary General and High Representative of the least developed countries. Some of the issues to be debated are climate change impacts on food security, sustaining cooperative management of freshwater supply in the face of glacial melting and reduced runoff, and possible large-scale displacements of people across borders.

The informal meeting is being convened under the Security Council’s Arria formula which allows external experts to be invited to speak to the Council. It was first implemented in 1992 by Venezuela’s Ambassador Diego Arria and gained significant importance since then, allowing the Council members greater flexibility. The UN Security Council has twice before deliberated the issue of climate change, under the respective leaderships of the UK and Germany. The Arria formula meeting could help to firmly establish climate change as a security issue on the Council’s agenda.

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Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five

Sarah Messina — 2013-01-14T10:15:00Z

“The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,” lead-author Dim Coumou says. “Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses – societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.” The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12.000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.

The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.

Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record events

If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. “Now this doesn’t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today – it actually is worse,“ Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today’s standards. “To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,” explains Coumou. “And this is just the global average – in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.”

“Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Earth System Analysis. “Today, this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.”

Article: Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Rahmstorf, S. (2013): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures. Climatic Change (online) [doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1]

Weblink to the article: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1

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From the Amazon rainforest to human body cells: quantifying stability

Sarah Messina — 2013-03-07T08:55:00Z

“Up to now, science was able to say if a complex system is stable or not, but it wasn’t able to properly say how stable it is,” says Peter J. Menck, lead author of the paper. The proposed concept is the first to fill this gap. “We conceive a system's alternative states as points in a mountainous landscape with steep rocks and deep valleys,” explains Menck. “In the sinks between the peaks, a system comes to rest like a rolling ball would. Now the likelihood that the system returns to a specific sink after suffering a severe blow strongly depends on how big the surrounding valley is.” In the high-dimensional systems Menck and his colleagues study, the equivalent of the valley is called the basin of attraction. The basin's volume is the measure the authors suggest to use for the quantification of stability.

Getting the actual data still is a challenge

The authors envision the new concept to become a powerful tool for complex systems studies, including the assessment of climatic tipping elements like the Amazon rainforest. Under unabated global warming, this ecosystem might change from its present fertile forest state to a much drier savanna state. Such a transition would destroy one of the planet’s most important CO2 sinks, thus contributing to further climate change. “Amazonian bistability arises from a positive feedback: Deep-rooting trees take up water and transpire it to the atmosphere” Menck says. Forest cover in the region increases overall rainfall and thereby improves its own growing conditions. If the forest cover gets pushed below a certain threshold, this mechanism doesn’t work any more – the rainforest would die.

The “basin stability concept” is apt for quantifying this risk. However, it is critical to actually do this from measured data. “Other researchers recently have collected the characteristics in terms of precipitation, temperature, soil of rainforests and savannas under defined climatological conditions,” Menck says. Still, the assessment is extremely challenging as the tipping of a forest is a rare event, so observation data is scarce. In contrast, observation data of human cells changing from a healthy state to cancer can be abundant. “So medical researchers told us that our concept could be quite helpful in better assessing the risk of sane cells to turning sick when disturbed by specific exogenous factors.”

“Simple yet compelling – that’s the way fundamental physics looks like”

Power grids have to function in good synchronization to assure that lights can be switched on everywhere anytime. Previous theory suggested that this should most easily be achieved if power grids had what researchers call a random structure, which in fact would yield many short-cuts between distant nodes. Yet in reality, grids look far more regular. Applying the basin stability concept shows why that is: In more regular grids, the desired synchronous state possesses a far bigger ‘basin’, hence is much more stable against perturbations.

“The basin stability’s applicability to high-dimensional systems allowed us to solve a puzzle that has long haunted complex network science,” says Jürgen Kurths, a co-author of the paper and co-chair of PIK’s research domain ‘Transdisciplinary concepts and methods’. ”Our new nonlinear approach jumps from a local to a whole system analysis, thus complementing previous research mostly based on linearization. This new concept is simple, yet compelling – that´s the way fundamental physics looks like.”

Article: Menck, P.J., Heitzig, J., Marwan, N., Kurths, J. (2013): How basin stability complements the linear-stability paradigm. Nature Physics (advance online publication) [doi:10.1038/NPHYS2516]

Weblink to the article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NPHYS2516

Weblink to short movie explaining basin stability: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~menck/basin_stability/

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Why early Earth was no snowball: Illuminating the ”faint young Sun paradox”

Sarah Messina — 2012-12-17T08:15:00Z

“For the first time, we present comprehensive 3-dimensional computer simulations of the Archean climate”, says first author Hendrik Kienert. In Earth’s history of 4.54 billion years, the Archean (3.8-2.5 billion years ago) was an era where only small continents existed on a planet mostly covered by oceans and illuminated by a much fainter Sun. “According to our results, CO₂ levels in the early Archean must have been 1,400 times higher than in pre-industrial times to prevent early Earth from being a snowball with a completely frozen surface”, Kienert says. This is considerably more than estimated by previous studies, which indicated the critical CO₂ level to be only 200 times higher.

“In contrast to previous simulations which focused on the effects of greenhouse gas amounts on temperature, our model also includes processes like the sea-ice albedo feedback and the higher rotation rate of the early Earth”, co-author Georg Feulner says. This is important because sea-ice reflects sunlight back into space, thus reducing Earth’s energy intake. Furthermore, the planet’s rotation rate affects heat transport from the equator to the poles and thus the extent of sea ice. Previous research based on 1-dimensional simulations neglected these aspects.

“Even if we consider the uncertainties like, for example, the locations and sizes of the continents, the critical CO2 amounts for the Archean are clearly above those derived from previous models”, co-author Vladimir Petoukhov says. In the light of these results, it will be more difficult to resolve the faint young Sun paradox for the late Archean. For this time period, other greenhouse gases like methane must have provided additional warming because recent geochemical data indicate an upper limit to the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere.

The current study is part of the PIK project “Ancient Climates on Earth (ACE)” which explores puzzling paleoclimate problems in earlier epochs of Earth’s history. “The faint young Sun paradox has been one of the major open questions in paleoclimatology since it was first pointed out four decades ago”, Feulner says. “Our study gives us a better understanding of the climate on early Earth and is thus a crucial step towards a solution to this problem.”

Article: Kienert, H., Feulner, G., Petoukhov, V. (2012): Faint young Sun problem more severe due to ice-albedo feedback and higher rotation rate of the early Earth. Geophysical Research Letters (doi:10.1029/2012GL054381)

Weblink to the article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054381

Weblink to a recent review paper on the faint young Sun problem: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000375

Weblink to PIK project ACE: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/earth-system-analysis/projects/flagships/ace

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More ice loss through snowfall on Antarctica

Jonas Viering — 2012-12-12T09:00:00Z

“Between 30 and 65 percent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall in Antarctica is countervailed by enhanced ice loss along the coastline,” says lead-author Ricarda Winkelmann. For the first time, an ensemble of ice-physics simulations shows that future ice discharge is increased up to three times because of additional precipitation in Antarctica under global warming. “The effect exceeds that of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting,” Winkelmann says.

Snow piling up exerts pressure on the ice, thus it flows faster to the coast

During the last decade, the Antarctic ice-sheet has lost volume at a rate comparable to that of Greenland. “The one certainty we have about Antarctica under global warming is that snowfall will increase,” Winkelmann explains. “Since surface melt might remain comparably small even under strong global warming, because Antarctica will still be a pretty chilly place, the big question is: How much more mass within the ice sheet will slowly but inexorably flow off Antarctica and contribute to sea-level rise, which is one of the major impacts of climate change.”

Since snowfall on the ice masses of Antarctica takes water out of the global water cycle, the continent’s net contribution to sea-level rise could be negative during the next 100 years – this is what a number of global and regional models suggest. The new findings indicate that this effect to a large extent is offset by changes in the ice-flow dynamics. Snow piling up on the ice is heavy and hence exerts pressure – the higher the ice the more pressure. Because additional snowfall elevates the grounded ice-sheet but less so the floating ice shelves, it flows more rapidly towards the coast of Antarctica where it eventually breaks off into icebergs and elevates sea level.

“Sea-level is rising – that is a fact”

A number of processes are relevant for ice-loss in Antarctica, most notably to sub-shelf melting caused by warming of the surrounding ocean water. These phenomena explain the already observed contribution to sea-level rise.

“We now know that snowfall in Antarctica will not save us from sea-level rise,” says second author Anders Levermann, research domain co-chair at PIK and a lead author of the sea-level change chapter of the upcoming IPCC’s 5th assessment report. “Sea level is rising – that is a fact. Now we need to understand how quickly we have to adapt our coastal infrastructure; and that depends on how much CO2 we keep emitting into the atmosphere,” Levermann concludes.

Article: Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M.A., Frieler, K. (2012): Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall. Nature [doi:10.1038/nature11616]

Weblink to the article: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v492/n7428/full/nature11616.html

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Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

„Promoting evidence-based decision-making“: Qatar and PIK announce creation of climate change research institute

Jonas Viering — 2012-12-07T13:15:00Z

The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding today in Doha at the world climate summit COP18 was attended by Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, Chairperson of Qatar Foundation, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon who supports the project, as well as UNFCCC-chief Christiana Figueres and COP-president Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah. “Qatar is uniquely positioned between the north and the south, the east and the west, the developed and the developing,” Her Highness Sheikha Moza said. “As we drive to establish a knowledge economy in Qatar, we gather today to announce our commitment to a new partnership that brings these unique strengths to climate change research, development and global collaboration.”

The institute will work to address remaining knowledge gaps by focusing in particular on arid regions – where 2.5 billion people live –, and the subtropics. Qatar, on the Arab peninsula, is itself a dry coastal country. The projected institute aims to better understand climate change and its consequences as well as potential ways to mitigate its negative effects. It will operate at the crossroads between the natural and social sciences. Some of the research topics that will be tackled by the new institute are extreme events, water systems, ecosystems, food production, public health, and sustainable development.

In the months ahead, Qatar Foundation and PIK will nominate a Founding Committee to develop a detailed plan for the institute and identify faculty. In addition to this, both partners will explore twinning programs on research and temporary integration of research staff from Qatar at PIK.

A second key effort of this partnership will be the launch of a Global Climate Change Forum that is intended to provide a platform for like-minded countries to work together and create innovative climate change strategies. The forum will supplement ongoing official UNFCCC negotiations and discussions by paving the way for an alliance of pioneers to implement new approaches based on cutting-edge science. In addition to government representatives and scientists, the forum will also involve multiple stakeholders such as non-governmental organizations with international reach and expertise in the field.

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E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

„Green Growth“– Fairytale or Strategy? Climate Lecture 2012 at TU Berlin

Mareike Schodder — 2012-12-03T14:10:00Z

Prosperity is possible without growth – in the long run growth even harms prosperity, because it plunders its natural base, argued Professor Tim Jackson from the University of Surrey. Jackson considers decoupling growth and environmental damage to be not practicable. "The challenges would be enormous: in a world of nine billion people all striving for Western incomes, the global carbon intensity of economic performance in 2050 would have to be at least 130 times lower than today – this would be a technological tour de force of industrial societies way beyond everything that has been achieved so far,” Jackson said.

"Ultimately, prosperity comprises more than material interests,“ Jackson emphasized. “It rests fundamentally on our capability of leading a good life as human beings – within the ecological boundaries of a finite planet.“

“So far, decoupling emission growth from economic growth has not been successful,” Professor Ottmar Edenhofer said. “But this is what’s essential for ambitious climate protection. To make this happen, global emissions would have to peak around 2020 and decline afterwards. Until 2080, the world economy would have to be virtually emission-free.” This transformation is only feasible if technologies are employed which carry both opportunities and challenges like carbon capture and storage in the ground (CCS) and the use of biomass on a large scale. Economic growth thus does involve risks. However, economic shrinkage instead of growth, Edenhofer explained, would reduce possible courses of action rather than increasing them.

“The basic problem is that growth leads to an accumulation of private assets in possession of few, and hence investments in education or the preservation of natural resources are missed out." The use of the atmosphere for instance is free, therefore investment in low-emission infrastructure doesn’t pay off,” Edenhofer explained. "In other words: We did invest too much in some areas while we did not invest enough in others." It is high time to change course regarding growth. "If you want to achieve this, however, there is not only need for accelerator and break, but above all for a steering wheel,” Edenhofer said. "If we know where we are headed we can still argue about the speed. At this point the direction we steer towards is the most important issue."

Technische Universität Berlin, by hosting the Climate Lecture, offers a unique forum in the German capital for the issues of climate change and climate research, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jörg Steinbach, President of TU Berlin, said. "We are staging big societal debates at the place where they belong – the university, and open our doors to the public."

This year, the Climate Lecture took a new format of academic discourse – speech and reply. Starting 2009, the Climate Lecture has hosted globally renowned thinkers and scientists: Lord Nicholas Stern from the London School of Economics, the Norwegian Elinor Ostrom, who received the Nobel Prize for her work on Commons, and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment programme based in Nairobi, Achim Steiner.

Speaker Tim Jackson, former advisor to the British government, is author of the bestselling book "Prosperity without growth". Ottmar Edenhofer is advisor to the World Bank in questions of growth and recently gave a speech to the Enquête Commission of the German parliament on growth, prosperity and life quality. He is also director of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change.

Weblink to the CV of Prof. Tim Jackson, PhD: www.surrey.ac.uk/ces/people/tim_jackson/

Weblink to the CV of Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/edenh/curriculum-vitae/curriculum-vitae?set_language=en

Projected sea-level rise may be underestimated

Sarah Messina — 2012-11-28T00:05:00Z

Sea-level rise potentially affects millions of people all around the world in coastal areas as well as megacities like Tokyo.

“Global temperature continues to rise at the rate that was projected in the last two IPCC Reports. This shows again that global warming has not slowed down or is lagging behind the projections,” Rahmstorf says. Five global land and ocean temperature series were averaged and compared to IPCC projections by the scientists from Potsdam, the Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS) in France and the US based Tempo Analytics. To allow for a more accurate comparison with projections, the scientists accounted for short-term temperature variations due to El Niño events, solar variability and volcanic eruptions. The results confirm that global warming, which was predicted by scientists in the 1960s and 1970s as a consequence of increasing greenhouse concentrations, continues unabated at a rate of 0.16 °C per decade and follows IPCC projections closely.

Data of sea-level rise provided a different picture though. The oceans are rising 60 per cent faster than the IPCC’s latest best estimates, according to the new research. The researchers compared those estimates to satellite data of observed sea-level rise. " Satellites have a much better coverage of the globe than tide gauges and are able to measure much more accurately by using radar waves and their reflection from the sea surface," explains Anny Cazenave from LEGOS. While the IPCC projected sea-level rise to be at a rate of 2 mm per year, satellite data recorded a rate of 3.2 mm per year. The increased rate of sea-level rise is unlikely to be caused by a temporary episode of ice discharge from the ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica or other internal variabilities in the climate system, according to the study, because it correlates very well with the increase in global temperature.

“In contrast to the physics of global warming itself, sea-level rise is much more complex,” Rahmstorf says. “To improve future projections it is very important to keep track of how well past projections match observational data.” Rahmstorf stresses that “the new findings highlight that the IPCC is far from being alarmist and in fact in some cases rather underestimates possible risks.”

Article: Rahmstorf, S, Foster, G., Cazenave, A. (2012): Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. Environmental Research Letters 7 044035 (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035)

Weblink to the article once it is published: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/article

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E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

4-degrees briefing for the World Bank: The risks of a future without climate policy

Mareike Schodder — 2012-12-06T13:00:00Z

“The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber points out. “If we venture far beyond the 2-degree guardrail, towards 4 degrees, we risk crossing tipping points in the Earth system.” This could be the case with coral reefs which face collapse under unabated global warming, or with the Greenland ice sheet. To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process that could start soon. “The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,” says Schellnhuber.

Climate impacts: Heat waves, sea-level rise, yield failures

Already today impacts of climate change are observed. The Russian heat wave in 2010, according to preliminary estimates, produced a death toll of several thousand, annual crop failure of about 25%, and economic losses of about US$15 billion. Extreme events like this at 4 degrees global warming would become “the new normal” in some parts of the world, according to the report. In the tropics, the coolest months at the end of the century are likely to be substantially warmer than the warmest months today.

Sea level, under this scenario, would rise by 50 to 100 centimeters within this century, and more so in coming centuries. The rate of rise varies from one region to the other, depending on sea currents and other factors. Projections suggest that sea-level rise will be strongest in countries like the Philippines, Mexico, and India.

Within economic sectors, too, tipping effects with rapidly increasing damages can occur, for instance in agriculture. Already, observations showed that important cereals are sensitive to temperature increases passing certain thresholds, resulting in large-scale yield failure. Changes in the water cycle can aggravate this, when droughts occur or flooding affects farmed land.

World Bank President Kim: "A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided"

"The report draws from the current state of science and delivers new analysis of heat waves and regional sea-level rise, so of course there remain some uncertainties," says William Hare, co-founder of Climate Analytics in Berlin and guest scientist at PIK. "We work with that by defining risk as potential damage multiplied with the probability – a rather improbable event can be a great risk if its impacts are huge."

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim who was nominated early this year by US President Barack Obama and assumed his new position in July, has personally been briefed on the 4-degrees report by Schellnhuber some weeks ago in Washington D.C.. “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees,” President Kim now said in a statement. “Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the biggest single challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.”

Executive Summary

Full Report

Quotes (approved for attribution) from global leaders on the World Bank “Turn Down The Heat” report and the climate challenge

Restricting nuclear power has little effect on the cost of climate policies

Mareike Schodder — 2012-10-02T07:30:00Z

“Questions have been raised if restricting nuclear energy – an option considered by some countries after the accident in Fukushima, Japan – combined with climate policies might get extremely expensive. Our study is a first assessment of the consequences of a broad range of combinations of climate and nuclear policies,” lead author Nico Bauer says. Restrictions on nuclear power could be political decisions, but also regulations imposed by safety authorities. Power generation capacities would have to be replaced, but fossil fuels would become costly due to a price on CO2 emissions, this in sum is the main concern.

“However, in case of restricted use of nuclear power, the flexibility of allocating a long-term carbon budget over time enables higher near-term emissions due to increased power generation of natural gas,” Bauer says. Along with demand reductions and efficiency improvements, these provisions could help fill the gap on electricity. The price of natural gas is projected to decrease due to demand reductions, according to the study. Decommissioning existing plants will also avoid refurbishment costs for expanding lifetimes of old nuclear power plants.

As a result, early retirement of nuclear power plants would lead to cumulative global gross domestic product losses (GDP) that amount to about 10 percent of climate policy costs. If no new nuclear capacities are allowed, the costs would amount to 20 percent.

For their study, the scientists looked into different nuclear power policies. These cover a range of scenarios from “Renaissance”, with a full utilization of existing power plants, a possible refurbishment for a lifetime expansion and investments in new nuclear power capacities, to “Full exit”, with a decommissioning of existing power plants and no new investments. They contrasted each scenario with climate policies implemented via an inter-temporal global carbon budget which puts a price on carbon emissions. For the budget, the cumulative CO2 emissions from the global energy sector were limited to 300 gigatons of carbon from 2005 until the end of the century. This represents a climate mitigation policy consistent with the target of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

“A surprising result of our study is the rather little difference between a ‘Renaissance’ or a ‘Full exit’ of nuclear power in combination with a carbon budget when it comes to GDP losses,” Bauer says. While the ‘no policy case’ with a nuclear phase-out and no carbon budget has only negligible effect on global GDP, the imposition of a carbon budget with no restrictions on nuclear policy implies a reduction of GDP that reaches 2.1 percent in 2050. The additional phase-out of nuclear power increases this loss by about 0.2 percent in 2050 and hence has only little additional impact on the economy, because the contribution of nuclear power to the electricity generation can be substituted relatively easy by alternative technology options, including the earlier deployment of renewables.

Article: Bauer, N., Brecha, R.J., Luderer, G. (2012): Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Early Edition) [DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1201264109]

Weblink to article: www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1201264109

“It pays to be a forerunner”: studies explore second-best scenarios of climate policy

Mareike Schodder — 2012-09-27T14:43:35Z

“It pays for Europe to assume its role of a forerunner instead of tiptoeing around like many other countries do, our study shows,” says Ottmar Edenhofer, leader of the team of authors and chief-economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “By acting early, countries can avoid expensive lock-ins in carbon-intensive infrastructure – this turns out to outweigh the costs that arise from higher overall greenhouse gas reduction commitments and from short-term losses of competitiveness in international markets,” Edenhofer says. If carbon pricing is suboptimal, technology policies promoting renewables can reduce mitigation costs substantially.

Without a global target to reduce emissions, investors lack incentives

Still, even under a scenario of a general agreement of a 2 degrees target, for some countries delaying mitigation under certain circumstances could be a rational strategy. Nations that act as net sellers of permits, like India – in case of equal per capita emission rights –, can possibly benefit from delayed action: The resulting higher future carbon prices lead to an increase of revenues from permit exports.

Without a global emission reduction target, however, in any case investors lack the necessary incentives to develop low-carbon technologies. “As a result, costs for climate change mitigation would rise sharply,“ says Gunnar Luderer, one of the co-authors. “Early and credible climate policy is one crucial factor for limiting mitigation costs.” The availability of technology is a second factor. While emission reduction potentials are high in the power generation sector, which can be used by comparatively inexpensive rapid deployment of renewable energy technologies, like wind power for instance. In the transport sector, low-emission technologies are still very expensive. Efforts should therefore focus on energy efficiency improvements, as well as research and development.

Second-best settings have been an underresearched topic

“Second-best settings and their implications for climate policy have been an underresearched topic,” Edenhofer points out. “Many scenarios of the economics of decarbonization derived from cost estimates under unrealistic assumptions, that all relevant technologies are available, all countries participate in an agreement for climate change mitigation, and that they will implement without delay their greenhouse gas emission reductions.” The new studies established a whole new approach.

The RECIPE Project (Report on Energy and Climate Policy in Europe) provides a range of scenarios that no longer assume a perfect world, intending to enhance the quality of academic research for decision-makers. It uses three different computer simulations of energy markets, macro-economics and policies, so-called Integrated Assessment Models. The model intercomparison effort increases the transparency of uncertainties and underlying assumptions, thus making the results more robust. It is a joint venture of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy, the Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), France, and the University of Cambrigde, UK.

Overview articles:

- Edenhofer, O., Carraro, C., Hourcade, J.-C. (2012): On the economics of decarbonization in an imperfect world. Climatic Change, Special Issue, Vol. 114, Nr. 1 [DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0549-7]
- Luderer, G., Bosetti, V., Jakob, M., Leimbach, M., Steckel, J.C., Waisman, H., Edenhofer, O. (2012): The economics of decarbonizing the energy system - results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison. Climatic Change, Special Issue, Vol. 114, Nr. 1 [DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0105-x]

Weblink to the Special Issue of Climatic Change: http://www.springerlink.com/content/0165-0009/114/1/

Constraining world trade is unlikely to help the climate

Mareike Schodder — 2012-09-23T17:10:00Z

Steadily growing world trade leads – as earlier research has shown – to a substantial transfer of CO₂ from one country to another. The traded goods effectively contain the greenhouse gas, as it originates from the energy used during their production. “Typically, in the West we import goods whose production causes a lot of greenhouse gas emissions in poorer countries – and it is a contested question to which countries these emissions should be attributed,” explains Michael Jakob from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), one of the authors. This is a delicate issue, because many Western countries have ambitious targets for emissions reductions. Simply transferring emission-intensive industries to third countries in order to achieve these goals would not serve climate protection – and might even damage the economy.

Almost half of the CO₂ transfers into the US are caused by the American trade deficit

“For the first time, we have now broken down the known emission transfers into their components,” Jakob says. The economic analysis is based on an evaluation of estimates that were determined by other researchers in earlier studies. “We can show that of the CO₂ flowing into the US in form of imported goods, almost 50 per cent are due to the American trade deficit alone,” Jakob explains. The US emits less CO₂ in the production of its exports than is contained in its imports, simply because it imports more than it exports. “And only about 20 per cent of CO₂ transfers from China into the US can be traced back to the fact that China is in effect relatively more specialized in the production of dirty goods,” Jakob says. But this is the only driver of emission transfers on which the currently controversially discussed climate tariffs could take effect.

Without world trade, the emission of greenhouse gases in countries like China could potentially be even higher than today, according to the study. Western countries often export goods like machines that need a lot of energy in the production process. Usually, this energy stems from comparatively clean production processes. On the other hand, China produces a lot of export goods like toys, whose production needs relatively little energy, but stems from emission-intensive coal power plants. If China with its fossil energy mix had to produce more energy-intensive goods itself instead of importing them, emissions would increase. “In the end, interventions in world trade could do more harm than good,” says co-author Robert Marschinski from PIK and Technische Universität Berlin.

"The crucial question is how clean or how dirty national energy production is in each case"

“Crucial for CO₂ transfers is not only world trade, but also the question of how clean or dirty national energy production is in each case,” Marschinski emphasizes. To look only at CO₂ transfers could be misleading. If for instance the European Union were to adopt new low emission production methods, its net imports of CO₂ could increase even though there is no relocation of production.

“To really justify trade-policy interventions like the much discussed CO₂ tariffs, further analysis would be needed – the observed CO₂ transfers alone are not enough as a basis,” Marschinski explains. “Such measures cannot replace what it really takes: more international cooperation.” Binding global climate targets could give incentives for investors to promote low-emission technologies. Innovations in efficiency could get financial support, and regional emission trading systems could be linked with each other, Marschinski says. “All this could help to achieve climate protection targets in an economically reasonable way.”

Article: Jakob, M., Marschinski, R. (2012): Interpreting trade-related CO₂ emission transfers. Nature Climate Change [DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1630] (Advance Online Publication)

Weblink to article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1630

Most coral reefs are at risk unless climate change is drastically limited

Webmaster — 2012-10-16T17:00:00Z

Coral reefs house almost a quarter of the species in the oceans and provide critical services – including coastal protection, tourism and fishing – to millions of people worldwide. Global warming and ocean acidification, both driven by human-caused CO₂ emissions, pose a major threat to these ecosystems.

“Our findings show that under current assumptions regarding thermal sensitivity, coral reefs might no longer be prominent coastal ecosystems if global mean temperatures actually exceed 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level,” says lead author Katja Frieler from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Without a yet uncertain process of adaptation or acclimation, however, already about 70% of corals are projected to suffer from long-term degradation by 2030 even under an ambitious mitigation scenario.” Thus, the threshold to protect at least half of the coral reefs worldwide is estimated to be below 1.5 degrees Celsius mean temperature increase.

A more comprehensive and robust representation than in previous studies

This study is the first comprehensive global survey of coral bleaching to express results in terms of global mean temperature change. It has been conducted by scientists from Potsdam, the University of British Columbia in Canada and the Universities of Melbourne and Queensland in Australia. To project the cumulative heat stress at 2160 reef locations worldwide, they used an extensive set of 19 global climate models. By applying different emission scenarios covering the 21st century and multiple climate model simulations, a total of more than 32,000 simulation years was diagnosed. This allows for a more robust representation of uncertainty than any previous study.

Corals derive most of their energy, as well as most of their famous color, from a close symbiotic relationship with a special type of microalgae. The vital symbiosis between coral and algae can break down when stressed by warm water temperatures, making the coral “bleach” or turn pale. Though corals can survive this, if the heat stress persists long enough the corals can die in great numbers. “This happened in 1998, when an estimated 16% of corals were lost in a single, prolonged period of warmth worldwide,” says Frieler.

Adaptation is uncertain and ocean acidification means even more stress

To account for a possible acclimation or adaptation of corals to thermal stress, like shifts to symbiont algae with a higher thermal tolerance, rather optimistic assumptions have been included in the study. “However, corals themselves have all the wrong characteristics to be able to rapidly evolve new thermal tolerances,” says co-author Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a marine biologist at the University of Queensland in Australia. “They have long lifecycles of 5-100 years and they show low levels of diversity due to the fact that corals can reproduce by cloning themselves. They are not like fruit flies which can evolve much faster.”

Previous analyses estimated the effect of thermal adaptation on bleaching thresholds, but not the possible opposing effect of ocean acidification. Seawater gets more acidic when taking up CO₂ from the atmosphere. This is likely to act to the detriment of the calcification processes crucial for the corals’ growth and might also reduce their thermal resilience. The new study investigates the potential implications of this ocean acidification effect, finding that, as Hoegh-Guldberg says: “The current assumptions on thermal sensitivity might underestimate, not overestimate, the future impact of climate change on corals.”

This comprehensive analysis highlights how close we are to a world without coral reefs as we know them. “The window of opportunity to preserve the majority of coral reefs, part of the world’s natural heritage, is small,” summarizes Malte Meinshausen, co-author at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the University of Melbourne. “We close this window, if we follow another decade of ballooning global greenhouse-gas emissions.”

Article: Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2012): Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nature Climate Change [DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1674] (Advance Online Publication)

Weblink to the article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1674

For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

No beach holiday: climate researchers meet up-and-coming scientists at summer school in Potsdam

Jonas Viering — 2012-07-06T14:30:00Z

The 35 participants, coming from universities, government institutions and associations in countries such as Great Britain, India, Iran, China and Mexico, have already distinguished themselves through demonstrated excellence in their respective fields.

Progressive climate change can cause extreme events such as heat waves and floods to occur more frequently and/or more intensely. These risks, complex systems and the management of uncertainties comprise the topics taken up by renowned climate researchers like Ken Caldeira of Stanford University, Elke Weber from Columbia University and Bill Clark from Harvard University, in their lectures to the GSSS participants. In addition, German experts like Peter Höppe of the world’s largest reinsurance firm Munich Re will lend their insights to the intensive summer course.

At the core of the tightly-packed program lie the lectures given by directors from the two Potsdam institutes. For PIK, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber will speak on the great transformation to sustainability and Ottmar Edenhofer about managing global common-pool resources, such as the atmosphere. From the IASS, Klaus Töpfer will talk about the German Energiewende, and Mark Lawrence about geo-engineering – the deliberate, large-scale interference in the Earth's climate system. Seminars on computer simulation of the climate system, strategy-plan games and an acting workshop are also on the program.

An open-podium discussion on the topic of “Geo-engineering – blessing or curse?” is one of the GSSS’ highlights, featuring the speakers Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Mark Lawrence, Ken Caldeira and philosophy professor Konrad Ott of the University of Greifswald on July 11th at 20:00 o'clock in the Robert Bosch Foundation in Berlin. You may register for the podium discussion at: presse@pik-potsdam.de or media@iass-potsdam.de.

Weblink to the Global Sustainability Summer School: http://gsss-potsdam.org/

For further information please contact:

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Press office / Jonas Viering
Phone: +49 (0)331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies
Press & Communications / Madelon Fleminger
Telefon: +49 (0)331 28822 341
E-Mail: media@iass-potsdam.de

Significant sea-level rise in a 2-degree warming world

Jonas Viering — 2012-06-24T12:00:00Z

The study is the first to give a comprehensive projection for this long perspective, based on observed sea-level rise over the past millennium, as well as on scenarios for future greenhouse-gas emissions.

“Sea-level rise is a hard to quantify, yet critical risk of climate change,” says Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics and Wageningen University, lead author of the study. “Due to the long time it takes for the world’s ice and water masses to react to global warming, our emissions today determine sea levels for centuries to come.”

Limiting global warming could considerably reduce sea-level rise

While the findings suggest that even at relatively low levels of global warming the world will have to face significant sea-level rise, the study also demonstrates the benefits of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius and subsequent temperature reductions could halve sea-level rise by 2300, compared to a 2-degree scenario. If temperatures are allowed to rise by 3 degrees, the expected sea-level rise could range between 2 and 5 metres, with the best estimate being at 3.5 metres.

The potential impacts are significant. “As an example, for New York City it has been shown that one metre of sea level rise could raise the frequency of severe flooding from once per century to once every three years,” says Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, co-author of the study. Also, low lying deltaic countries like Bangladesh and many small island states are likely to be severely affected.

Sea-level rise rate defines the time for adaptation

The scientists further assessed the rate of sea-level rise. The warmer the climate gets, the faster the sea level climbs. “Coastal communities have less time to adapt if sea-levels rise faster,” Rahmstorf says

“In our projections, a constant level of 2-degree warming will sustain rates of sea-level rise twice as high as observed today, until well after 2300,” adds Schaeffer, “but much deeper emission reductions seem able to achieve a strong slow-down, or even a stabilization of sea level over that time frame.”

Building on data from the past

Previous multi-century projections of sea-level rise reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were limited to the rise caused by thermal expansion of the ocean water as it heats up, which the IPCC found could reach up to a metre by 2300. However, this estimate did not include the potentially larger effect of melting ice, and research exploring this effect has considerably advanced in the last few years. The new study is using a complementary approach, called semi-empirical, that is based on using the connection between observed temperature and sea level during past centuries in order to estimate sea-level rise for scenarios of future global warming.

“Of course it remains open how far the close link between temperature and global sea level found for the past will carry on into the future,” says Rahmstorf. “Despite the uncertainty we still have about future sea level, from a risk perspective our approach provides at least plausible, and relevant, estimates.”

Article: Schaeffer, M., Hare, W., Rahmstorf, S., Vermeer, M. (2012): Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5° C and 2° C warming levels. Nature Climate Change [doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1584] (Advance Online Publication)

Weblink to the article: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1584.html

For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

“A house for the 21th century“: To celebrate its 20th anniversary, PIK is laying the foundation stone for a new research building

Mareike Schodder — 2012-06-20T14:00:00Z

“Next to Potsdam’s famous research buildings like the Einstein tower and the Royal Observatory for Astrophysics, we are putting future-looking architecture into place,” says PIK director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber on the occasion of the foundation stone ceremony this wednesday. The Telegrafenberg is a unique place of science history, and being able to work in its buildings is an honour, he points out. And now he can justifyably say: “We are building a house for the 21st century”.

Enormous waste heat of high-performance computer will be utilized

The modern wooden front and the ground plan resembling a clover leaf are intended to make the building appear less massive and make it blend into the trees on Telegrafenberg, so the ensemble of historic buildings is not affected. In the building itself, which is funded by Brandenburg and the Federal Government to the amount of 17 million euros, innovative technology is being put in place. For instance, the enormous waste heat of the high-performance computer used for climate simulations will be utilized. For the insulation of the outer walls different materials are used that will be monitored regarding their long-term efficiency by the Technical University Dresden. “Used by scientists, this building is itself a kind of inhabitable object of research,” says Schellnhuber.

He deliberately decided to combine the foundation stone ceremony with the anniversary celebration for PIK’s 20th birthday - the focus is on the future instead of the past. Schellnhuber expressed gratitude for the congratulations from important companions of the institute that came in over the last few days.

Messages from policy-makers like Federal Minister Schavan and scientists like Noble Laureate Molina

“With their excellent research, PIK scientists create a sound knowledge base for decisions in politics and economy,” says Annette Schavan, Federal Minister of Education and Research. “I wish PIK a further strengthening of its outstanding position.” The Minister President of the German federal state of Brandenburg, Matthias Platzeck, said: “The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research plays an essential role in sharpening society’s awareness of the consequences that actions can have on the climate of our one world.” Therefore it had become an indispensable part of the research landscape not just of Brandenburg but international science as well.

An example for this would be research results connecting extreme weather events with human-induced climate change, Nobel Prize Laureate for Chemistry Mario Molina wrote: “The contributions of the institute have been truly impressive and of great importance for our community, for climate change science as well as for climate change policy”. Born in Mexico, Molina is Professor at the University of California in San Diego. Nicholas Stern from the London School of Economics highlighted “the ability to bring together world class researchers from many different disciplines to tackle a defining issue of our century, climate change” as a strength of PIK.

So it is not only the architecture that makes the new building a “house for the 21th century”. It is the work of the roughly 190 climate scientists who will be moving in in 2014, too.

Weblink to messages from companions from science and politics: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/public-events/20-years/20-years-of-pik-2013-towards-sustainability

Information on the new building: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/services/infodesk/telegraphenberg/forschungsneubau

Information on the historic buildings on Telegrafenberg: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/services/infodesk/telegraphenberg/About_Telegraphenberg?set_language=en

Weblink to historic pictures of these buildings: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/services/infothek/telegraphenberg-d/fotoalbum