14.9. Patt
Keynote Presentations from the 4th ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq 5 - 17 September 2009
Speaker: Anthony Patt
patt -at- iiasa.ac.at
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Title of the talk: Communicating uncertain science of global change to policy makers (pdf: 2MB)
Summary of the talk and discussion by Jia Li (pdf)
Abstract
Communicating uncertain science of global change to policy makersScientists struggle with the issue of how to communicate science, and in particular the uncertainty inherent in scientific results, and there is no shortage of advice on how to do so effectively. While there has been some empirical research into what forms of communication work better than others, to a large extent the advice is based on theory extended from different social science disciplines. Unfortunately, the different theories can offer contradictory lessons, in some cases irreconcilably so. In this presentation, I will try to resolve this mess. First, I will discuss basic theoretical paradigms for decision-making, from economics, psychology, and other social sciences. I will then connect each of these with the problem of communicating uncertainty, in order to aid decision-making. Ultimately, I will offer a set of practice guidelines to assist in tailoring a communication strategy to the context in which communication is necessary.
Recommended background literature on this presentation:
- Patt A, Suarez P, Gwata C (2005) Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 102:12623-12628, doi 10.1073/pnas.0506125102
- Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124-1131 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
- Patt A (2009) Communicating uncertainty to policy-makers. In: Bavaye P, Mysiak J, Laba M (ed.) Uncertainties in environmental modeling and consequences for policy making. Dordrecht: Springer, pp231 – 251.
