13.9. Reckien

Keynote Presentations from the 4th ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq 5 - 17 September 2009

Speaker: Diana Reckien

reckien -at- pik-potsdam.de

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Personal homepage

Summary of the talk and discussion by Carlos MGL Teixeira and Sofia Neto (pdf)

Abstract

The idea of so-called tipping points in the earth system has gained momentum since the review of Lenton et al.in PNAS in 2008. Tipping points refer to thresholds or levels at which the state of a certain system is inevitable, fast and potentially irreversible changed to a new, different state or equilibrium. It is a well-known concept in epidemiology, became popular when M. Gladwell (2000) discussed it with respect to its social or socio-economic transferability, and was applied to earth system analysis by Lenton & Schellnhuber (2007) soon after. I will start explaining the concept in more detail, refer to a range of definitions available and then elaborate on the tipping points in the Earth System as proposed by Lenton & Schellnhuber. Particular attention will be paid to the consequences for ecosystems and society. In the last section of the presentation I will shortly investigate the social consequences of a crossing of one of the tipping points on migration in Bangladesh and India.

Reading list for this presentation:

• Kriegler E, Hall J, Held H, Dawson R, Schellnhuber HJ (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. PNAS 106:5041-5046. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0809117106
• Lenton TM, Schellnhuber HJ (2007) Tipping the scales. Nature Reports Climate Change 1:97-98. doi: 10.1038/climate.2007.65
• Lenton T, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall J, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. PNAS 105:1786-1793. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
• Zickfeld K, Knopf B, Petoukhov V, Schellnhuber HJ (2005) Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change? Geophysical Research Letters 32 L15707. doi: 10.1029/2005GL022771
• Gladwell M (2000) The tipping point: How little things can make a big difference. London, UK: Little Brown. http://www.littlebrown.co.uk/Title/9780349113463
• Rajan SC (2008) Blue alert – climate migrants in South Asia: Estimates and solutions. A report by Greenpeace, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Madras. http://www.greenpeace.org/india/blue-alert-report