10.9.Haines-Young

Keynote Presentations from the 4th ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq 5 - 17 September 2009

Speaker: Roy Haines-Young

Roy.Haines-Young -at- Nottingham.ac.uk

University of Nottingham, Centre for Environmental Management, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK
http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/CEM/

Title of the talk: Modelling ecosystem services using Bayesian networks (pdf: 14MB)

Summary of the discussion by Walaa Adra and Catriona Morrison (pdf)

Abstract

The concept of ecosystem services has brought a new dimension to debates about sustainable development by highlighting the important links between biodiversity, ecological processes and human well-being. It is also a precious idea because it is encouraging people to think more deeply about how we value the benefits that nature provides, the role that biodiversity plays and whether critical limits exist in the relation to the output of these services. However, although the concept is now being taken up widely by the science and policy communities, it is not always easy to apply it in an operational context.

The aim of this session is to reflect on the different approaches that can be used to characterise and assess ecosystem services, and particularly the role that biodiversity plays in their generation. It will look at one modelling approach, in particular, namely the use of Bayesian Networks. Although these networks have been widely used in environmental management, few studies have yet to apply the approach to modelling ecosystem services. As attention increasingly turns to the need to understand the ‘production systems’ that underpin services and what might influence them, it seems clear that the approach has a number of advantages as an integrating framework.

We will consider how Bayesian Networks can be used to understand the way decision makers frame policy or management problems; how these networks can support participatory assessments and valuations with stakeholders; and how the approach can be applied to scenario studies. As a meta-modelling framework, Bayesian Networks provide an effective way to integrate different knowledge domains. While they have disadvantages in terms of how they represent change over time and feedback processes, it is clear that these networks can provide a platform on which more sophisticated dynamic modelling tools can be developed.

Recommended background literature on this presentation:

• Haines-Young R, Potschin M (2009) The links between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being. In: Raffaelli D, Frid C (eds.): Ecosystem Ecology: a new synthesis. BES Ecological Reviews Series, CUP, Cambridge [in press]
• Royal Society (2009): Ecosystem Services and biodiversity in Europe: building science into policy at EU level. EASAC Policy Report 09. With Contributions from M. Potschin and R. Haines-Young (Nottingham), Annex 1, p. 33-65.
• Balvanera P, Pfisterer AB, Buchmann N, He J-S, Nakashizuka T, Raffaelli D, Schmid B (2006) Quantifying the evidence for biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning and services. Ecology Letters 9:1146-1156, doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00963.x
• Díaz S, Fargione J, Chapin FS III, Tilman D (2007) Biodiversity loss threatens human well-being. PLOS Biology 4:1300-1305, doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.0040277