4.9. Carter

Keynote Presentations from the 3rd ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq 2 - 14 September 2008

Tim.Carter -at- ymparisto.fi

Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland

Title of the talk: European ecosystems in alternative future worlds (pdf: 4MB)

Summary of the talk by Fanny Langerwisch: Students´ summary (pdf)

Recommended background literature on this presentation:

• Alcamo J (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Environmental issue report No 24, Experts' corner report Prospects and Scenarios No 5, European Environment Agency (pdf: 400KB), Luxembourg, pp 31.
  
• Carpenter SR, Pingali PL, Bennett EM, Zurek MB (Eds.) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: Scenarios. Findings of the Scenarios Working Group, Volume 2, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Island Press, especially Chapters 2 (Raskin et al.), 6 (Alcamo et al.), 7 (Nelson et al.) and 9 (Alcamo et al.). http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Scenarios.aspx
• Carter TR, La Rovere EL, Jones RN, Leemans R, Mearns LO, Nakicenovic N, Pittock AB, Semenov SM, Skea J (2001) Developing and applying scenarios. In: McCarthy JJ, et al. (eds), Climate change (2001) Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp 145-190. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.htm
• Carter TR, Jones RN, Lu X, Bhadwal S, Conde C, Mearns LO, O’Neill BC, Rounsevell MDA, Zurek MB (2007) New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 133-171. http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/02.pdf
• Grübler A, Nakicenovic N (2001) Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate. Nature, 412, 15. doi: 10.1038/35083752
• Lebel L, Thongbai P, Kok K, Agard JBR, Bennett E, Biggs R, Ferreira M, Filer C, Gokhale Y, Mala W, Rumsey C, Velarde SJ, Zurek M (2005) Sub-global scenarios. In: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Multiscale Assessments, Volume 4, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Carpenter SR, Pingali PL, Bennett EM, Zurek MB (Eds) Island Press, 229-259. Chapter 10: http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.348.aspx.pdf.
• MNP (2006) Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4. (Bouwman AF, Kram T, Klein Goldewijk K (Eds) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 228 pp. http://www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2006/ Integratedmodellingofglobalenvironmentalchange.AnoverviewofIMAGE2.4.html
• Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Emissions scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 599 pp. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.htm
• Parry ML (2002) Scenarios for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Global Environmental Change 12: 149-153. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00038-9
• Schneider SH (2001) What is 'dangerous' climate change? Nature, 411, 17-19. doi: 10.1038/35075167
• Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, Prentice IC, Araújo MB, Arnell NW, Bondeau A, Bugmann H, Carter TR, Garcia CA, de la Vega-Leinert AC, Erhard M, Ewert F, Glendining M, House JI, Kankaanpää S, Klein RJT, Lavorel S, Lindner M, Metzger MJ, Meyer J, Mitchell TD, Reginster I, Rounsevell M, Sabaté S, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith J, Smith P, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Thuiller W, Tuck G, Zaehle S, Zierl B (2005) Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310:1333-1337, doi:10.1126/science.1115233