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31.8. Leemans

Keynote Presentations from the 1st ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq 27 August - 8 September 2006



Speaker: Rik Leemans
Rik.Leemans -at- wur.nl
Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
Personal homepage


Title of the talk: Introduction to scenarios / Review of the DPSIR concept (pdf: 5MB)


Summary of the talk by Catherine Linard: Students´ summary (pdf)


Recommended background literature on this presentation:

  • Alcamo J (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Environmental issue report No 24, Experts' corner report Prospects and Scenarios No 5, European Environment Agency (pdf: 400KB), Luxembourg, pp 31.
  • Davis G (2002) Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century. Probing the Future Conference, Strathclyde University. (pdf: 600KB).
  • Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2002) Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. BioScience 52 (2) 143-150.
  • Greeuw SCH, van Asselt MBA, Grosskurth J, Storms CAMH , Rijkens-Klomp N, Rothman DS, Rotmans J (2000) Cloudy crystal balls. An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models, Experts’ corner report, Prospects and scenarios No 4, Environmental issues series No 17, European Environment Agency (pdf: 600KB), Copenhagen, pp 116.
  • Nellemann C, Kullerud L, Vistnes I, Forbes BC, Husby E, Kofinas GP, Kaltenborn BP, Rouaud J, Magomedova M, Bobiwash R, Lambrechts C,Schei PJ, Tveitdal S, Grøn O, Larsen TS (2001) GLOBIO - Global methodology for mapping human impacts on the biosphere (pdf: 10,1 MB), Information and Assessment Technical Report UNEP/DEWA/TR.01-3.
  • Raskin P, Banuri T, Gallopin G, Gutman, P, Hammond A, Kates R, Swart R (2002) Great transition: The promise and lure of the times ahead. SEI PoleStar Series Report no. 10, Global Scenario Group, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 99 pp. http://www.tellus.org/seib/publications/Great_Transitions.pdf (1MB)
  • Rotmans J, van Asselt M, Anastasi C,Greeuw S, Mellors J, Peters S, Rothman D, Rijkens N (2000) Visions for a sustainable Europe. Futures 32:809-831. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00033-1.
  • van Vuuren D, Bakkes J (2000) GEO-2000 Alternative policy study for Europe and Central Asia. Information and Assessment Technical Report UNEP/DEIA&EW/TR.99-4, RIVM 402001019, pp 129. (pdf: 2,5MB)
  • van Woerden J (ed), Mnatskanian R, Dronin N, Mohanty CRC, Witt R, Pintér L, Langeweg Fred, Bakkes J, Velders G, Bouwman L, Leemans R, Bresser T, Bollen J, Hilderink H (1999) Data issues of global environmental reporting: Experiences from GEO-2000. Information and Assessment Technical Report UNEP/DEIA&EW/TR.99-3, RIVM 402001013, pp 58. (pdf: 3,5MB)
  • Wollenberg E, Edmunds D, Buck L (1999) Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landscape and Urban Planning 47: 65-77. doi:10.1016/S0169-2046(99)00071-7.
  • UNEP (2002) Global Environment Outlook 3 - Chapter 4, p 320-400. http://www.grida.no/geo/geo3/english/515.htm
  • People and Connections, Global Scenarios to 2020, Public Summary, Exploring the Future, Global Business Environment, Shell International 2002
  • IPCC (2000) Summary for Policymakers, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (pdf: 800KB) http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf
  • FAO (2002) World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 - Summary report, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, pp 106. (pdf: 1MB)
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