“We want to better understand how climate impacts differ between a global warming of two degrees compared to three degrees,” says Katja Frieler of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project coordinating team (ISI-MIP). The international community has set a target of two degrees, but unfettered emission of greenhouse gases sets the world on a path to three degrees or more. This seemingly small difference could have drastic impacts.“ These are calculated on the basis of observations and current understanding of the relevant processes,” says Frieler. “We will examine to what extent they agree across models and quantify the uncertainty that remains.”
"The project will help to fill a sore gap in the IPCC's report"
The global model comparison puts the focus squarely on humans. Water shortages in a region in Africa for instance could make it difficult for farmers to cultivate their fields, poor crops could lead to malnourishment and thus to a higher vulnerability to diseases, Frieler explains. The comparison could help to identify possible regional hotspots.
“The project will help to fill a sore gap in the IPCC´s report,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, PIK director. Until now, there have been comprehensive model comparisons for the physics of the climate system as well as for the economy of climate protection and for climate impacts on specific sectors. To address all climate impacts at once is both an ambitious and necessary intent, says Schellnhuber. “It provides an essential strengthening of the grounds for the 2014 IPCC report.”
Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, expressed enthusiasm for the project. “As co-chair of IPCC Working Group II, I greatly appreciate the initiative required to get this activity underway, and I appreciate the commitment to fast-track components that will yield results in time for inclusion in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report”, says Field. The products that ISI-MIP envisions “will make a real difference for the assessment process.” The IPCC Working Group II assesses impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
"The time has come for this comparison"
Working Group III co-chair Ottmar Edenhofer from PIK also explicitly encouraged the impact intercomparison project. "A sound impact analysis is of high relevance for mitigation and adaptation assessment as well," says Edenhofer. "It enables us to do cost-benefit estimates that are critical for providing decision-makers with the information they need. We therefore strongly endorse the impact model intercomparison effort." Working group III of the IPCC focuses on climate change mitigation.
“The time has come for this comparison,” says Pavel Kabat, Director of IIASA. “A multi-model cross-sectoral approach to projections of climate change impacts has not been available in the past. The ISI-MIP project is a significant and positive development in this regard. We have access to sophisticated models, vast quantities of high-quality data from many sectors and regions and an urgency to deliver a highly integrative analysis of our current knowledge about global impacts of climate change. We are confident that this project can deliver such an analysis.”
For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-mail: press@pik-potsdam.de
IIASA press office
Phone: +43 2236 807 316
E-mail: regan@iiasa.ac.at
More information on the website of the Berlinale Talent Campus
]]>The platform defines green growth as “fostering economic growth and development, while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies. It focuses on the synergies and tradeoffs between the environmental and economic pillars of sustainable development.” According to the initiators, the next five to ten years will present major opportunities to further incorporate environmental and economic sustainability considerations in, for example, the huge investments in infrastructure that will be made across the developing world.
]]>Not only in technical terms but also aesthetically, the building will set new standards. Because of its wooden façade and its unusual shape, resembling the three leafs of a shamrock, it is supposed to almost disappear among the many trees of the science park.
At present the grounds are being prepared, completion is envisaged for 2014. The gain of office space allows to bring back the scientists now located at PIK´s branch office in Potsdam to the shared science campus. The building is financed by the Brandenburg Ministry of Science, Research and Culture, the Federal Ministry of Science and Research and the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology.
]]>This research was realized with funds from the EU within the European project ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies); five European modeling teams participated. A main success was the production of a Special Issue in the Energy Journal, the paper is a synthesis paper of the model comparison. Results have been taken up in the IPCC Special Report on Renewables. The PIK team is continuing with the work on model comparisons within the EU projects as well as under the roof of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum.
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“Clouds, wind and weather” is the title of Rahmstorf’s book. The scientist took great effort to explain these phenomena, all linked to climate research, to children – quite unusual for someone normally publishing in scientific journals. The German Federal Minister of Science, Annette Schavan, chose it for reading to pupils on the National Reading Day in November. It received praise by “Die Zeit” and other media.
Disruptive events and trends in climate and hydrology are at the centre of “In Extremis”, co-edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK, and Jürgen Kropp, head of PIK’s North-South Project. Numerous authors explore issues like – and these are just two chapters - climate risk analysis or intense precipitation and high floods observations and projections.
China is facing many challenges but perhaps none is more pressing than that posed by climate change. “The economics of climate change in China”, a book co-edited by Ottmar Edenhofer, chair of PIK’s research domain Sustainable Solutions, makes the compelling case that a transition to a low-carbon economy is an essential part of China's development and modernisation. It has been selected for the Cambridge University’s top 40 sustainability books.
“Growth – where to?” is the question posed by Carlo Jaeger in a book of this title. He is co-chair of PIK’s research domain Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods. His essay on green growth is, in his words, “a short history of the 21st century”. It is part of the publications of the German Council for Sustainable Development, established by the German government.
A book on how religion affects, for better or worse, the international climate change discourse has been co-edited by Dieter Gerten. This is part of PIK’s research domain Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities´ work on the dynamics of socio-ecological systems. One example for this is the strong influence of religion on US climate policy. The book also covers how indigenous and world religions are transformed by actual climate change and climate change projections.
Weblinks to an interview with Rahmstorf on the website of the German Federal Ministry for Science
and to more information on his children’s book
Weblink to the book co-edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber and Jürgen Kropp
Weblink to the book co-edited by Ottmar Edenhofer
Weblink to the book by Carlo Jaeger