Jochen Hinkel
Senior researcher
Contact Details
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
P.O. Box 601203
14412 Potsdam
Germany
Phone: +49-331-288-2598
Mail: hinkel@pik-potsdam.de
Web: www.pik-potsdam.de/members/hinkel
Research Interests
As a member of PIK’s Research Domain IV, Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, and the European Climate Forum I am working on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, in particular in the context of natural resource management and coastal systems.
I believe that two challenges need to be addressed for advancing these research fields:
First, it is necessary to directly address the transdisciplinary integration of knowledge. Even though knowledge integration is fundamental in sustainability science, the actual process of integrating knowledge is rarely addressed explicitly let alone methodically.
Second, we need to be more explicit and specific on the problems we are addressing under the general and abstract terms such as vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity and adaptation. In my opinion, the conceptual and methodical confusion prevailing in these research fields results from the fact that different scholars, while using the same terminology, address very different types of problems. In one case, for example, adaptation might mean to optimise an existing management regime, in another case to raise awareness that global environmental change is producing new threats and yet in another case it might mean to find a normative agreement between conflicting parties. A more specific terminology is needed that goes beyond abstract terms and does justice to the wide variety of problems addressed.
In my doctoral thesis I took some steps at addressing the first challenge and proposed a couple of devices that facilitate transdisciplinary knowledge integration. In the EC-funded MEDIATION Project we are currently addressing the second challenge. MEDIATION aims at empirically identifying the diverse types of problems found in the context of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation and at developing an integrated methodology that maps available methods to the types of problems to which they are applicable.
Current research projects and activities
| Since 2011 |
IMPACT2C (Quantifying projected impacts under 2∘C warming, funded by the European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme. This project assesses impacts and adaptation under low-stabilisation scenarios. I am involved in the assessment of coastal impacts for Europe and the Maldives. |
| Since 2011 |
Habilitation. I am writing my habilitation thesis on human-environment interactions in the Division of Resource Economics at the Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Humboldt University, Berlin. |
| Since 2011 |
PROVIA, funded by the UNEP. I am a lead author on the revised technical guidance on tools and research methodologies for climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. |
| Since 2010 |
MEDIATION (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION), funded by the European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme (project number 2444012). The objective of MEDIATION is to develop an integrated methodology for assessing climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation and to make this methodology available via a web-based platform. I lead the development of the integrated methodology. |
| Since 2001 |
DIVA model (Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment). DIVA is a global, integrated model of coastal systems developed collaboratively by several European research institutes for assessing biophysical and socio-economic consequences of sea-level rise and socio-economic development taking into account adaptation in terms of raising dikes and nourishing beaches. I lead the model development. |
Selected previous projects
| 2010 |
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC): Aggregate Track Infrastructure - Coastal Component, funded by the World Bank. The project developed a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing climate negotiations and adapation decision making. I was involved in the coastal assessment. |
| 2010 |
Economic Analysis of Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in Senegal and Gambia, funded by the World Bank. The project assessed coastal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation using the DIVA Model for Senegal and Gambia. |
| 2010 |
Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Areas of India, funded by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH. The project developed a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of Indian States to climate change. |
| 2009 - 2010 |
Vulnerability Mapping, funded by the European Topic Centers at the German and European Environemental Agency. An assessment of the vulnerabiliies of several European sectors was carried out and incorporated in the 2010 State of the Environement Report published by the European Environemental Agency. I carried out the coastal assessment. |
| 2009 |
Preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators at regional level, funded by the European Commission’s DG Environment (Reference: ENV.G.1/ETU/2008/0092r). The project conducted a review of vulnerability indicators from a theoretical and methodological perspective and developed and applied a process for the construction of vulnerability indicators. |
| 2008 - 2011 |
CLIMATECOST (the Full Cost of Climate Change), funded by the European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme. The project is a study of the economics of climate change to inform policy on long-term targets, the economic costs of inaction, and the costs and benefits of adaptation. The project is quantifying the costs of climate change impacts, as compared with the costs and benefits of adaptation. I was involved in the coastal work. |
| 2005 - 2009 |
ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies - Supporting European Climate Policy), funded by the European Commission’s DG Research under the Sixth Framework Programme (Project Reference: 18476). I co-lead the ADAM Workpackage A1 that developed a formal framework of CCIVA concepts, conducted a meta-analysis of European CCIVA studies, explored how barriers to adaptation could be overcome through social learning, and developed a Digital Adaptation Compendium. |
| 2005 - 2009 |
FAVAIA (Formal Approaches to Vulnerability that Inform Adaptation). FAVAIA was a joint research project between PIK and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) which aimed at alleviating some of the conceptual difficulties present in the field of CCIVA by formalising vulnerability and related concepts. I lead the PIK work. |
| 2005 - 2009 |
NeWater (New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty), funded by the European Commission’s DG Research under the Sixth Framework Programme (contract no 511179). I was involved in a case study of range land management in Lesotho and in comparing and improving indicator and model-based methods for assessing water vulnerability. |
| 2001 - 2004 |
DINAS-COAST (Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Sea-Level Rise), funded by the European Commission’s DG Research under the 5th Framework Programme (Contract No. EVK2-2000-22024). The project developed the DIVA model. I coordinated the development. |
Publications
Peer-reviewed journal articles
Hinkel, J., 2011. “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: towards a clarification of the science policy interface. Global Environmental Change, 21, 198–208.
Hinkel, J., Brown, S., Exner, L., Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A.T. and Kebede, A.S., 2011. Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change, Online first.
Hofmann, M., Hinkel, J. and Wrobel, M., 2011. Classifying knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe for informing adaptation research and decision-making: a conceptual meta-analysis. Global Environmental Change, 21, 1106–1116.
Lass, W., Haas, A., Hinkel, J. and Jaeger, C., 2011. Avoiding the avoidable: Towards a European heat waves risk governance. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, in press.
van Vuuren, D.P., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Arnell, N., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R. and Scrieciu, S., 2011. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 21, 575–591.
Bisaro, A., Hinkel, J. and Kranz, N., 2010a. Multilevel water, biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho. Environmental Science and Policy, 13(7), 637–647.
Bisaro, A., Wolf, S. and Hinkel, J., 2010b. Framing climate vulnerability and adaptation at multiple levels: Addressing climate risks or institutional barriers in Lesotho? Climate and Development, 2(2), 161–175.
Hinkel, J., Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A., Tol, R.S.J. and Avagianou, T., 2010. Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 5(7), 1–17.
Kranz, N., Menniken, T. and Hinkel, J., 2010. Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play? Environmental Science and Policy, 13(7), 648–659.
Mcleod, E., Hinkel, J., Vafeidis, A.T., Nicholls, R.J., Harvey, N. and Salm, R., 2010a. Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle. Sustainability Science, 5(2), 207–222.
Mcleod, E., Poulter, B., Hinkel, J., Reyes, E. and Salm, R., 2010b. Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. Ocean & Coastal Management, 53, 507–517.
Miller, F., Osbahr, H., Boyd, E., Thomalla, F., Bharwani, S., Ziervogel, G., Walker, B., Birkmann, J., van der Leeuw, S., Rockström, J., Hinkel, J., Downing, T., Folke, C. and Nelson, D.R., 2010. Resilience and vulnerability: Complementary or conflicting concepts? Ecology and Society, 15(3).
Nicholls, R.J., Marinova, N., Lowe, J.A., Brown, S., Vellinga, P., de Gusmao, D., Hinkel, J. and Tol, R.S.J., 2010. Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a “beyond 4 degree world” in the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 369, 161–181.
Hinkel, J., 2009. PIAM: A modular approach to integrated assessment modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, 24, 739–748.
Hinkel, J. and Klein, R.J.T., 2009. The DINAS-COAST project: developing a tool for the dynamic and interactive assessment of coastal vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 384–395.
Ionescu, C., Klein, R.J.T., Hinkel, J., Kumar, K.S.K. and Klein, R., 2009. Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 14, 1–16.
Vafeidis, A.T., Nicholls, R.J., McFadden, L., Tol, R.S.J., Hinkel, J., Spencer, T., Grashoff, P.S., Boot, G. and Klein, R.J.T., 2008. A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(4), 917–924.
Warren, R., de la Nava Santos, S., Arnell, N.W., Bane, M., Barker, T., Barton, C., Ford, R., Füssel, H.M., Hankin, R.K.S., Hinkel, J., Klein, R., Linstead, C., Kohler, J., Mitchell, T.D., Osborn, T.J., Pan, H., Raper, S.C.B., Riley, G., Schellnhuber, H.J., Winne, S. and Anderson, D., 2008a. Erratum to “Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change” [Environ Model Softw 23(5) (2008) 592–610]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23(9), 1215–1216.
Warren, R., de la Nava Santos, S., Arnell, N.W., Bane, M., Barker, T., Barton, C., Ford, R., Füssel, H.M., Hankin, R.K.S., Klein, R., Linstead, C., Kohler, J., Mitchell, T.D., Osborn, T.J., Pan, H., Raper, S.C.B., Riley, G., Schellnhuber, H.J., Winne, S. and Anderson, D., 2008b. Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23(5), 592–610.
Hinkel, J., 2005. DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models. Advances in Geosciences, 4, 45–50.
Book chapters
Hinkel, J., 2011. Climate impacts: from numbers to stories. In: C.C. Jaeger, K. Hasselmann, G. Leipold, D. Mangalagiu and J.D. Tabara (eds.), Reframing the Problem of Climate Change: From Zero Sum Game to Win-Win Solutions, pp. 35–53. Earthscan, Oxon, UK, New York, USA & Canada. In press.
Hinkel, J., Bisaro, S., Downing, T., Hofmann, M.E., Lonsdale, K., Mcevoy, D. and Tabara, J.D., 2009. Learning to adapt. narratives of decision makers adapting to climate change. In: M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt (eds.), Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies, pp. 113–134. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Neufeldt, H., Jochem, E., Hinkel, J., Huitema, D., Massey, E., Watkiss, P., McEvoy, D., Rayner, T., Hof, A., Lonsdale, K., Barker, T., Held, A., Hulme, M., Reiter, U., Turton, H., van Vuuren, D.P. and Werners, S.E., 2009. Climate policy and inter-linkages between adaptation and mitigation. In: M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt (eds.), Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies, pp. 3–30. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Russel, D., Haxeltine, A., Huitema, D., Nilsson, M., Hinkel, J. and Rayner, T., 2009. Climate change appraisal in the EU: current trends and future challenges. In: M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt (eds.), Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies, pp. 31–53. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
van Vuuren, D.P., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Arnell, N., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Bauer, N., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R. and Scrieciu, S., 2009. Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation. In: M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt (eds.), Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies, pp. 54–86. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Hinkel, J., 2008. A framework for analysing methodologies of vulnerability assessments. In: A.G. Patt, D. Schröter, A.C. de la Vega-Leinert and R.J.T. Kleinsingh (eds.), Environmental Vulnerability Assessment. Earthscan, London, UK.
Klein, R.J.T. and Hinkel, J., 2008. The DINAS-COAST project: developing a tool for the dynamic and interactive assessment of coastal vulnerability. In: A.G. Patt, D. Schröter, A.C. de la Vega-Leinert and R.J.T. Klein (eds.), Environmental Vulnerability Assessment. Earthscan, London, UK.
Hinkel, J. and Klein, R.J.T., 2007. Integrating knowledge for assessing coastal vulnerability. In: L.M. Fadden, R.J. Nicholls and E. Penning-Rowsell (eds.), Managing Coastal Vulnerability. Earthscan, London, UK.
Under review
Koerth, J., Vafeidis, A., Sterr, H., Hinkel, J., Daschkeit, A. and Carretero, S., 2012. Anticipatory adaptation: How are coastal dwellers preparing for sea-level rise and climate related changes in storm surges? Global Environmental Change, under review.
Hinkel, J., van Vuuren, D.P., Nicholls, R.J. and Klein, R.J.T., 2011. The effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal impacts in the 21st century. Revised version under review.
Wolf, S., Hinkel, J., Ionescu, C., Hofman, M., Bisaro, S., Linke, D. and Klein, R.J.T., 2011. Vulnerability definitions and methodologies: A clarification by formalisation. Under review.
In preparation
Binder, C.R., Hinkel, J. and Pahl-Wostl, C., 2012. Comparison of frameworks for analysing social-ecological systems. Special Feature in Ecology & Society on the Ostrom SES framework. In preparation.
Hinkel, J., Binder, C., Schlüter, M., Cox, M. and Bots, P., 2012a. Comparative application of the SES framework. Special Feature in Ecology & Society on the Ostrom SES framework. In preparation.
Hinkel, J., Bots, P. and Schüter, M., 2012b. Towards a common framework for analyzing the sustainability of social-ecological systems: a meta-framework. Special Feature in Ecology & Society on the Ostrom SES framework. In preparation.
Hinkel, J., Vafeidis, A.T., Kaiser, G. and Kortenhaus, A., 2012c. Methods for analysing coastal flood risk under sea-level rise. In preparation.
McFadden, L., Nicholls, R.J., Spencer, T. and Hinkel, J., 2012. Broad-scale coastal wetland change and environmental forcing: the DIVA wetland change model. In preparation.
Schlüter, M., Hinkel, J., Bots, P. and Arlinghaus, R., 2012. Application of a SES framework for model-based analysis of the dynamics of social-ecological systems. Special Feature in Ecology & Society on the Ostrom SES framework. In preparation.
Brown, S., Nicholls, R., Lowe, J. and Hinkel, J., 2011. Spatial variations in sea level rise and global impacts: An application of DIVA. To be submitted for a Special Issue of Climatic Change.
Hinkel, J. et al., 2011. A global analysis of coastal erosion of beaches due to sea-level rise: An application of DIVA. In preparation.
