Publikationen
1 Interdisziplinäre Beiträge im Kontext der Klimaforschung
1.1 Peer-reviewed
· V. Dakos, M. Scheffer, E. H. van Nes, V. Brovkin, V. Petoukhov, H.
Held, Slowing down reveals climatic tipping points, PNAS, in press.
· H. Held, T. Augustin, E. Kriegler, Bayesian Learning for a Class
of Priors with Prescribed Marginals, International Journal of
Approximate Reasoning, in press.
· T. M. Lenton, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J. Hall, W. Lucht, S.
Rahmstorf, J. Schellnhuber, Tipping elements in the Earth system, PNAS,
105 (6): 1786-1793; www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0705414105
(2008).
· H. Held, Quantile-Filtered Bayesian Learning for the Correlation
Class, ISIPTA’07, peer-reviewed proceedings of the 5th International
Symposium on Imprecise Probability (Praha, 17.-19.7.2007): Theories and
Applications, Eds.: Gert de Cooman, Jiřina Vejnarová, Marco Zaffalon,
ISBN 987-80-86742-20-5, published by Action M Agency, 223-232 (2007).
· T. Schneider von Deimling, A. Ganopolski, H. Held, S. Rahmstorf,
How Cold was the Last Glacial Maximum? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L14709,
doi:10.1029/2006GL026484 (2006).
· H. Held, T. Schneider von Deimling, Transformation of Possibility
Functions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity, Advances in
Soft Computing 6, 337-345 (2006).
· T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf,
Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial
climates, Climate Dynamics 27, 149-163, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8
(2006).
· S. J. Friedmann, J. J. Dooley, H. Held, O. Edenhofer, The low
cost of geological assessment for underground CO2 storage: Policy and
economic implications, Energy Conversion and Management 47 (13-14),
1894-1901 (2006).
· B. Knopf, H. Held, H.-J. Schellnhuber, Forced versus Coupled
Dynamics in Earth System Modelling and Prediction, Nonlinear Processes
in Geophysics 12, 311-320 (2005).
· E. Kriegler, H. Held, Utilizing random sets for the estimation of
future climate change, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
39, 185-209 (2005).
· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, N. Bauer, A regulatory framework for
carbon capturing and sequestration within the post-Kyoto process, in
the peer-reviewed volume (I) by E. S. Rubin, D. W. Keith, C. F. Gilboy
(Eds.) of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse
Gas Control Technologies (5-9 September 2004, Vancouver, Canada),
989-997, Elsevier, Amsterdam (2005).
· N. Bauer, O. Edenhofer, H. Held, E. Kriegler, Uncertainty of the
role of carbon capture and sequestration within climate change
mitigation strategies, in the peer-reviewed volume (I) by E. S. Rubin,
D. W. Keith, C. F. Gilboy (Eds.) of Proceedings of the 7th
International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (5-9
September 2004, Vancouver, Canada), 931-939, Elsevier, Amsterdam
(2005).
· O. Edenhofer, K. Lessmann, N. Bauer, H. Held, Climate protection!
A new energy policy? Vierteljahreshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 74
(2), pp. 137-147 (2005).
· H. Held, T. Kleinen, Detection of climate system bifurcations by
degenerate fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23207,
doi:10.1029/2004GL020972 (2004).
· W. Steffen, M.O. Andreae, B. Bolin, P.J. Crutzen, P. Cox, U.
Cubasch, H. Held, N. Nakicenovic, R. Scholes, L. Talaue-McManus, B.L.
Turner II, Abrupt Changes: the Achilles Heels of the Earth System,
Environment, 46 (3), 9-20 (2004).
· M. Stroebe, M. Scheringer, H. Held, K. Hungerbühler,
Inter-comparison of multimedia fate models: Modes of transport,
measures of persistence and long-range transport potential, and the
remote state, Science of the Total Environment, 321, 1-20 (2004).
· J. A. Rial, R. A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, P. Cox,
H. Held, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, R. Prinn, J. D. Salas, Nonlinearities,
Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds Within the Earth's Climate System.,
Climatic Change, 65 (1)-(2), 11-38 (2004).
· E. Kriegler, H. Held, Climate Projections for the 21st Century
Using Random Sets, in Bernard, J.M.; Seidenfeld, T.; Zaffalon, M.:
“Proceedings of the third international symposium on imprecise
probabilities and their applications”, (Lugano, Switzerland, 14.-17.
Jul 2003 peer-reviewed) 345-360, (2003).
· H. Held, Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals
to changes in model dimension, Stochastic Environmental Research and
Risk Assessment, 17 (1)-(2), 20-41 (2003).
· T. Kleinen, H. Held, G. Petschel-Held, The potential role of
spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth System, Ocean
Dynamics 53, 53-63 (2003).
· H. Held: Spherical spatial ranges of non-polar chemicals for
reaction-diffusion type dynamics, Applied Mathematics and Computation,
124 (1), 29-43 (2001).
1.2 Semi peer-reviewed
As the field of Earth system analysis is still emerging, it appears
as meaningful to introduce in addition to “peer-reviewed” and “further
contributions” the category “semi peer-reviewed”: often, articles get
reviewed in a smaller, yet highly competent circle of research
colleagues which appears as distinctly different from standard
non-reviewed cases.
· T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, and S. Rahmstorf
(2008), Are paleo-proxy data helpful for constraining future climate
change?, PAGES News, 16, in press.
· H. Held, O. Edenhofer, Re-structuring the problem of Global
Warming Mitigation: “Climate Protection” vs. “Economic Growth” as a
false Trade-off, in Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude; Hoffmann-Riem, Holger;
Biber-Klemm, Susette; Grossenbacher-Mansuy, Walter; Joye, Dominique;
Pohl, Christian; Wiesmann, Urs; Zemp, Elisabeth (eds.). Handbook of
Transdisciplinary Research. Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 191-204, ISBN:
978-1-4020-6698-6 (2008).
· E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner, Climate protection strategies
under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences, in J. Kropp and J.
Scheffran (Eds.), Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk
Management in Sustainability Science, pp. 3-42, ISBN:
978-1-60021-427-4, Publisher Nova Science, New York (2007).
· H. Held, O. Edenhofer, Re-structuring the problem of Global
Warming Mitigation: “Climate Protection” vs. “Economic Growth” as a
false Trade-off, in Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude; Hoffmann-Riem, Holger;
Biber-Klemm, Susette; Grossenbacher-Mansuy, Walter; Joye, Dominique;
Pohl, Christian; Wiesmann, Urs; Zemp, Elisabeth (eds.). Handbook of
Transdisciplinary Research. Heidelberg: Springer (forthcoming).
· E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner, Climate protection strategies
under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences, in J. Kropp and J.
Schaeffran (Eds.), Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk
Management in Sustainability Science, pp. 9-52, ISBN: 1-60021-427-4,
Publisher Nova Science, New York, to appear.
· M. Claussen, H. Held, D. P. Schrag, What do we know about
potential modes of operation of the Quaternary Earth system? in:
Schellnhuber, H.J., Clark, W.C., Crutzen, P.J., Claussen, M. and Held,
H. (Eds.) Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, DahlemWorkshop
Report 91, pp. 141-156, The MIT Press, MA, USA (2004).
· A.J. Watson, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, P. Falkowski, H. Held, A.J.
Payne, S. Rahmstorf, R.J. Scholes, D.P. Schrag, F. Sirocko, Group
Report: Possible States and Modes of Operation of the Quaternary Earth
System, in: Schellnhuber, H.J., Clark, W.C., Crutzen, P.J., Claussen,
M. and Held, H. (Eds.) Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, Dahlem
Workshop Report 91, pp. 189-210, The MIT Press, MA, USA (2004).
· W. Steffen, M.O. Andreae, B. Bolin, P.J. Crutzen, P. Cox, U.
Cubasch, H. Held, N. Nakicenovic, R. Scholes, L. Talaue-McManus, B.L.
Turner II, Group Report: Earth Dynamics in the Anthropocene, in:
Schellnhuber, H.J., Clark, W.C., Crutzen, P.J., Claussen, M. and Held,
H. (Eds.) Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, DahlemWorkshop
Report 91, pp. 313-340, The MIT Press, MA, USA (2004).
· H. Held and H.-J. Schellnhuber, Evolution of perturbations in
complex systems. In: Steffen, W., Sanderson, A., Jäger, J., Matson, P.,
Moore III, B., Oldfield, F., Richardson, K., Schellnhuber, H.-J.,
Turner II, B.L., Tyson, P.D. and Wasson, R.J. (Eds). Global Change and
the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure, pp. 145-147. The IGBP Book
Series, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York (2004).
· H.-J. Schellnhuber, H. Held, How Fragile is the Earth System? in
Briden, J. and Downing, T.(Eds.), Managing the Earth: the Eleventh
Linacre Lectures, 5-34, Oxford Univ. Press., Oxford (2002).
· H.-J. Schellnhuber, A. Block, H. Held, M. K. B. Lüdeke, O.
Moldenhauer, G. Petschel-Held, Syndrome & Co.: Qualitative und
semi-quantitative Ansätze in der Forschung zum Globalen Wandel,
Proceedings zu Transsektorale Forschung zum GlobalenWandel“, Bonn, pp.
49-96, CAMPUS-Verlag, Frankfurt a. Main, New York (2001).
1.3 Weitere Beiträge
· H. Held, E. Kriegler, T. Augustin, Bayesian Learning for a Class
of Priors with prescribed Marginals, discussion paper #488,
statistic-server http://www.stat.uni-muenchen.de/sfb386/ (2006).
· M. Claussen, A. Berger, H. Held, A survey of hypotheses for the
100 ka cycle. in: Sirocko, F., Claussen, M., Sanchez-Goni, M., Litt, T.
(eds.) 2006: The climate of past interglacials. Developments in
Quaternary Science, 7, Elsevier Publisher, 29-35.
· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, N. Bauer, Wege zu einem nachhaltigen
Energiesystem. Ein ordnungspolitischer Rahmen für die Deponierung von
Kohlenstoff in geologischen Formationen in Johnke, B, Scheffran, J.,
Soyez, K. (Eds.), Abfall, Energie und Klima: Wege und Konzepte für eine
integrierte Ressourcennutzung., pp. 26-40, Erich-Schmidt-Verlag, Berlin
(2004).
· W. Steffen, M.O. Andreae, B. Bolin, P.J. Crutzen, P. Cox, U.
Cubasch, H. Held, N. Nakicenovic, R. Scholes, L. Talaue-McManus, B.L.
Turner II, Abrupt Changes: the Achilles Heels of the Earth System,
IIASA-report RR-04-006, adapted from Environment, 46 (3), 9-20 (2004).
· H.-J. Schellnhuber, H. Held, Definition of Erdsystem“ und
Erdsystemanalyse“, in Ökolexikon“, Hrsg.: E.U. Simonis, 69-70 Verlag C.
H. Beck (2003).
· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, and C. Jaeger, Langfristige Optionen einer
globalen Energie- und Umweltpolitik, in Hauser, W. (Ed.) Das Experiment
mit dem Planeten Erde, 370-383, Theiss Verlag, Stuttgart (2002).
· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, C. C. Jaeger, Langfristige Optionen einer
globalen Energie- und Umweltpolitik, in Hauser,W.(Ed.), Klima. Das
Experiment mit dem Planeten Erde., 370-383, in the Catalogue for the
Special Exhibition on Climate and Energy by the German Museum 7 Nov
2002 - 15 Jun 2003, Munich (2002).
· H. Held, Umgang mit Unsicherheit am Beispiel wissenschaftlicher
Prognostik. Eine Einführung. in Nuissl, E. (Hrsg.), Wenn Wissenschaft
mehr als Wissen schafft, 122-123, Lemmens Verlags und
Mediengesellschaft mbH, Bonn (2002).
· H. Held, Semianalytical Spatial Ranges and Persistences of
Non-Polar Chemicals for Reaction-Diffusion Type Dynamics, in
Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Dynamics, pp.
275-285 (Proceedings International Conference System Science 2000,
Osnabrück 20.-22. Mar 2000), Springer (2001).
1.4 Bücher
· Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Paul J. Crutzen, William C. Clark,
Martin Claussen and Hermann Held (Eds.), Earth System Analysis for
Sustainability (454 pages), MIT-Press, MA, USA (2004).
1.5 Lizenzen
· M. Scheringer, M. Stroebe, H. Held, Lizenz ETH Zürich / PIK:
Chemrange 2.1 A Multimedia Transport Model for Calculating Persistence
and Spatial Range of Organic Chemicals, http://ltcmail.ethz.ch/hungerb/
research/product/chemrange.html (2002).
· M. Scheringer, H. Held, M. Stroebe, Lizenz ETH Zürich / PIK:
Chemrange 1.0 A Multimedia Transport Model for Calculating Persistence
and Spatial Range of Organic Chemicals, http://ltcmail.ethz.ch/hungerb/
research/- product/chemrange.html (2001).
1.6 Eingereicht
· H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer, Cost Effective
Climate Policies Optimised under Technology and Climate Uncertainty,
submitted to Energy Economics
· H. Held, Quantile-Filtered Bayesian Learning for the Correlation Class, submitted to ISIPTA’07
· H. Held, E. Kriegler, T. Augustin, Bayesian Learning for a Class
of Priors with Prescribed Marginals, submitted to International Journal
of Approximate Reasoning
2 Beiträge zur Physik
2.1 Peer-reviewed
· H. Held, A. Lvovsky, X. Wei, Y. R. Shen, Bulk contribution from
isotropic media in surface sum-frequency generation, Phys. Rev. B 66,
205110 (2002).
· Y. L. Yeh, C. Zhang, H. Held, S. H. Lin, Y. R. Shen: On the
surface structure of non-hydrogen bonding liquids, J. Chem. Phys. 114,
1837-1843 (2001).
· X. Wei, S.-C. Hong, A. I. Lvovsky, H. Held, Y. R. Shen,
Evaluation of surface vs. bulk contributions in sum-frequency
vibrational spectroscopy using reflection and transmission geometries,
Journ. Phys. Chem. B, 104, 3349-3354 (2000).
· H. Held and W. Schweizer: Beyond nearest-neighbor spacing
distributions: A new indicator for core-induced chaos, Phys. Rev. Lett.
84, 1160-1163 (2000).
· H. Held, J. Schlichter, G. Raithel, H. Walther: Observation of
level statistics and Heisenberg-time orbits in Diamagnetic Rydberg
Atoms, Europhys. Lett., 43, 392-397 (1998).
· G. Raithel, H. Held, L. Marmet, H. Walther, Rubidium Rydberg atoms in strong static fields, J. Phys. B 27, 2849-2866 (1994).
· L. Marmet, H. Held, G. Raithel, J. A. Yeazell, H.Walther,
Observation of Quasi-Landau Wave Packets, Phys. Rev. Lett. 72,
3779-3782 (1994).
· J. A. Yeazell, G. Raithel, L. Marmet, H. Held, H. Walther,
Observation of Wave Packet Motion along Quasi-Landau Orbits, Phys. Rev.
Lett. 70, 2884- 2887 (1993).
2.2 Weitere Beiträge
· H. Held, J. Schlichter, H. Walther: Quantum Chaos in Rydberg
Atoms (pp. 1-18), in J. Parisi, S. C. Müller, and W. Zimmermann (eds.):
A Perspective Look at Nonlinear Media in Physics, Chemistry, and
Biology, Berlin, Springer (1998).
· H. Held, L. Marmet, H.Walther, Observation of Quasi-LandauWave
Packets, Proc. XII. Int. Conf. on Laser Spectroscopy, 289-290, Capri
(1995).
· H. Held, L. Marmet, H.Walther, Observation of Quasi-LandauWave
Packets, Proc. XII. Int. Conf. on Laser Spectroscopy, 289-290, Capri
(1995).
