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1 Interdisziplinäre Beiträge im Kontext der Klimaforschung


1.1 Peer-reviewed


· V. Dakos, M. Scheffer, E. H. van Nes, V. Brovkin, V. Petoukhov, H. Held, Slowing down reveals climatic tipping points, PNAS, in press.

· H. Held, T. Augustin, E. Kriegler, Bayesian Learning for a Class of Priors with Prescribed Marginals, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, in press.

· T. M. Lenton, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J. Hall, W. Lucht, S. Rahmstorf, J. Schellnhuber, Tipping elements in the Earth system, PNAS, 105 (6): 1786-1793; www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 (2008).

· H. Held, Quantile-Filtered Bayesian Learning for the Correlation Class, ISIPTA’07, peer-reviewed proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability (Praha, 17.-19.7.2007): Theories and Applications, Eds.: Gert de Cooman, Jiřina Vejnarová, Marco Zaffalon, ISBN 987-80-86742-20-5, published by Action M Agency, 223-232 (2007).

· T. Schneider von Deimling, A. Ganopolski, H. Held, S. Rahmstorf, How Cold was the Last Glacial Maximum? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L14709, doi:10.1029/2006GL026484 (2006).

· H. Held, T. Schneider von Deimling, Transformation of Possibility Functions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity, Advances in Soft Computing 6, 337-345 (2006).

· T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf, Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climates, Climate Dynamics 27, 149-163, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8 (2006).

· S. J. Friedmann, J. J. Dooley, H. Held, O. Edenhofer, The low cost of geological assessment for underground CO2 storage: Policy and economic implications, Energy Conversion and Management 47 (13-14), 1894-1901 (2006).

· B. Knopf, H. Held, H.-J. Schellnhuber, Forced versus Coupled Dynamics in Earth System Modelling and Prediction, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 12, 311-320 (2005).

· E. Kriegler, H. Held, Utilizing random sets for the estimation of future climate change, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39, 185-209 (2005).

· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, N. Bauer, A regulatory framework for carbon capturing and sequestration within the post-Kyoto process, in the peer-reviewed volume (I) by E. S. Rubin, D. W. Keith, C. F. Gilboy (Eds.) of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (5-9 September 2004, Vancouver, Canada), 989-997, Elsevier, Amsterdam (2005).

· N. Bauer, O. Edenhofer, H. Held, E. Kriegler, Uncertainty of the role of carbon capture and sequestration within climate change mitigation strategies, in the peer-reviewed volume (I) by E. S. Rubin, D. W. Keith, C. F. Gilboy (Eds.) of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (5-9 September 2004, Vancouver, Canada), 931-939, Elsevier, Amsterdam (2005).

· O. Edenhofer, K. Lessmann, N. Bauer, H. Held, Climate protection! A new energy policy? Vierteljahreshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 74 (2), pp. 137-147 (2005).

· H. Held, T. Kleinen, Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23207, doi:10.1029/2004GL020972 (2004).

· W. Steffen, M.O. Andreae, B. Bolin, P.J. Crutzen, P. Cox, U. Cubasch, H. Held, N. Nakicenovic, R. Scholes, L. Talaue-McManus, B.L. Turner II, Abrupt Changes: the Achilles Heels of the Earth System, Environment, 46 (3), 9-20 (2004).

· M. Stroebe, M. Scheringer, H. Held, K. Hungerbühler, Inter-comparison of multimedia fate models: Modes of transport, measures of persistence and long-range transport potential, and the remote state, Science of the Total Environment, 321, 1-20 (2004).

· J. A. Rial, R. A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, R. Prinn, J. D. Salas, Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds Within the Earth's Climate System., Climatic Change, 65 (1)-(2), 11-38 (2004).

· E. Kriegler, H. Held, Climate Projections for the 21st Century Using Random Sets, in Bernard, J.M.; Seidenfeld, T.; Zaffalon, M.: “Proceedings of the third international symposium on imprecise probabilities and their applications”, (Lugano, Switzerland, 14.-17. Jul 2003 peer-reviewed) 345-360, (2003).

· H. Held, Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals to changes in model dimension, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 17 (1)-(2), 20-41 (2003).

· T. Kleinen, H. Held, G. Petschel-Held, The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth System, Ocean Dynamics 53, 53-63 (2003).

· H. Held: Spherical spatial ranges of non-polar chemicals for reaction-diffusion type dynamics, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 124 (1), 29-43 (2001).



1.2 Semi peer-reviewed

As the field of Earth system analysis is still emerging, it appears as meaningful to introduce in addition to “peer-reviewed” and “further contributions” the category “semi peer-reviewed”: often, articles get reviewed in a smaller, yet highly competent circle of research colleagues which appears as distinctly different from standard non-reviewed cases.


· T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, and S. Rahmstorf (2008), Are paleo-proxy data helpful for constraining future climate change?, PAGES News, 16, in press.

· H. Held, O. Edenhofer, Re-structuring the problem of Global Warming Mitigation: “Climate Protection” vs. “Economic Growth” as a false Trade-off, in Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude; Hoffmann-Riem, Holger; Biber-Klemm, Susette; Grossenbacher-Mansuy, Walter; Joye, Dominique; Pohl, Christian; Wiesmann, Urs; Zemp, Elisabeth (eds.). Handbook of Transdisciplinary Research. Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 191-204, ISBN: 978-1-4020-6698-6 (2008).

· E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner, Climate protection strategies under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences, in J. Kropp and J. Scheffran (Eds.), Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk Management in Sustainability Science, pp. 3-42, ISBN: 978-1-60021-427-4, Publisher Nova Science, New York (2007).


· H. Held, O. Edenhofer, Re-structuring the problem of Global Warming Mitigation: “Climate Protection” vs. “Economic Growth” as a false Trade-off, in Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude; Hoffmann-Riem, Holger; Biber-Klemm, Susette; Grossenbacher-Mansuy, Walter; Joye, Dominique; Pohl, Christian; Wiesmann, Urs; Zemp, Elisabeth (eds.). Handbook of Transdisciplinary Research. Heidelberg: Springer (forthcoming).

· E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner, Climate protection strategies under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences, in J. Kropp and J. Schaeffran (Eds.), Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk Management in Sustainability Science, pp. 9-52, ISBN: 1-60021-427-4, Publisher Nova Science, New York, to appear.

· M. Claussen, H. Held, D. P. Schrag, What do we know about potential modes of operation of the Quaternary Earth system? in: Schellnhuber, H.J., Clark, W.C., Crutzen, P.J., Claussen, M. and Held, H. (Eds.) Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, DahlemWorkshop Report 91, pp. 141-156, The MIT Press, MA, USA (2004).

· A.J. Watson, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, P. Falkowski, H. Held, A.J. Payne, S. Rahmstorf, R.J. Scholes, D.P. Schrag, F. Sirocko, Group Report: Possible States and Modes of Operation of the Quaternary Earth System, in: Schellnhuber, H.J., Clark, W.C., Crutzen, P.J., Claussen, M. and Held, H. (Eds.) Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, Dahlem Workshop Report 91, pp. 189-210, The MIT Press, MA, USA (2004).

· W. Steffen, M.O. Andreae, B. Bolin, P.J. Crutzen, P. Cox, U. Cubasch, H. Held, N. Nakicenovic, R. Scholes, L. Talaue-McManus, B.L. Turner II, Group Report: Earth Dynamics in the Anthropocene, in: Schellnhuber, H.J., Clark, W.C., Crutzen, P.J., Claussen, M. and Held, H. (Eds.) Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, DahlemWorkshop Report 91, pp. 313-340, The MIT Press, MA, USA (2004).

· H. Held and H.-J. Schellnhuber, Evolution of perturbations in complex systems. In: Steffen, W., Sanderson, A., Jäger, J., Matson, P., Moore III, B., Oldfield, F., Richardson, K., Schellnhuber, H.-J., Turner II, B.L., Tyson, P.D. and Wasson, R.J. (Eds). Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure, pp. 145-147. The IGBP Book Series, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York (2004).

· H.-J. Schellnhuber, H. Held, How Fragile is the Earth System? in Briden, J. and Downing, T.(Eds.), Managing the Earth: the Eleventh Linacre Lectures, 5-34, Oxford Univ. Press., Oxford (2002).

· H.-J. Schellnhuber, A. Block, H. Held, M. K. B. Lüdeke, O. Moldenhauer, G. Petschel-Held, Syndrome & Co.: Qualitative und semi-quantitative Ansätze in der Forschung zum Globalen Wandel, Proceedings zu Transsektorale Forschung zum GlobalenWandel“, Bonn, pp. 49-96, CAMPUS-Verlag, Frankfurt a. Main, New York (2001).








1.3 Weitere Beiträge

· H. Held, E. Kriegler, T. Augustin, Bayesian Learning for a Class of Priors with prescribed Marginals, discussion paper #488, statistic-server http://www.stat.uni-muenchen.de/sfb386/ (2006).

· M. Claussen, A. Berger, H. Held, A survey of hypotheses for the 100 ka cycle. in: Sirocko, F., Claussen, M., Sanchez-Goni, M., Litt, T. (eds.) 2006: The climate of past interglacials. Developments in Quaternary Science, 7, Elsevier Publisher, 29-35.

· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, N. Bauer, Wege zu einem nachhaltigen Energiesystem. Ein ordnungspolitischer Rahmen für die Deponierung von Kohlenstoff in geologischen Formationen in Johnke, B, Scheffran, J., Soyez, K. (Eds.), Abfall, Energie und Klima: Wege und Konzepte für eine integrierte Ressourcennutzung., pp. 26-40, Erich-Schmidt-Verlag, Berlin (2004).

· W. Steffen, M.O. Andreae, B. Bolin, P.J. Crutzen, P. Cox, U. Cubasch, H. Held, N. Nakicenovic, R. Scholes, L. Talaue-McManus, B.L. Turner II, Abrupt Changes: the Achilles Heels of the Earth System, IIASA-report RR-04-006, adapted from Environment, 46 (3), 9-20 (2004).

· H.-J. Schellnhuber, H. Held, Definition of Erdsystem“ und Erdsystemanalyse“, in Ökolexikon“, Hrsg.: E.U. Simonis, 69-70 Verlag C. H. Beck (2003).

· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, and C. Jaeger, Langfristige Optionen einer globalen Energie- und Umweltpolitik, in Hauser, W. (Ed.) Das Experiment mit dem Planeten Erde, 370-383, Theiss Verlag, Stuttgart (2002).

· O. Edenhofer, H. Held, C. C. Jaeger, Langfristige Optionen einer globalen Energie- und Umweltpolitik, in Hauser,W.(Ed.), Klima. Das Experiment mit dem Planeten Erde., 370-383, in the Catalogue for the Special Exhibition on Climate and Energy by the German Museum 7 Nov 2002 - 15 Jun 2003, Munich (2002).

· H. Held, Umgang mit Unsicherheit am Beispiel wissenschaftlicher Prognostik. Eine Einführung. in Nuissl, E. (Hrsg.), Wenn Wissenschaft mehr als Wissen schafft, 122-123, Lemmens Verlags und Mediengesellschaft mbH, Bonn (2002).

· H. Held, Semianalytical Spatial Ranges and Persistences of Non-Polar Chemicals for Reaction-Diffusion Type Dynamics, in Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Dynamics, pp. 275-285 (Proceedings International Conference System Science 2000, Osnabrück 20.-22. Mar 2000), Springer (2001).



1.4 Bücher

· Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Paul J. Crutzen, William C. Clark, Martin Claussen and Hermann Held (Eds.), Earth System Analysis for Sustainability (454 pages), MIT-Press, MA, USA (2004).



1.5 Lizenzen

· M. Scheringer, M. Stroebe, H. Held, Lizenz ETH Zürich / PIK: Chemrange 2.1 A Multimedia Transport Model for Calculating Persistence and Spatial Range of Organic Chemicals, http://ltcmail.ethz.ch/hungerb/ research/product/chemrange.html (2002).

· M. Scheringer, H. Held, M. Stroebe, Lizenz ETH Zürich / PIK: Chemrange 1.0 A Multimedia Transport Model for Calculating Persistence and Spatial Range of Organic Chemicals, http://ltcmail.ethz.ch/hungerb/ research/- product/chemrange.html (2001).


1.6 Eingereicht

· H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer, Cost Effective Climate Policies Optimised under Technology and Climate Uncertainty, submitted to Energy Economics

· H. Held, Quantile-Filtered Bayesian Learning for the Correlation Class, submitted to ISIPTA’07

· H. Held, E. Kriegler, T. Augustin, Bayesian Learning for a Class of Priors with Prescribed Marginals, submitted to International Journal of Approximate Reasoning








2 Beiträge zur Physik

2.1 Peer-reviewed

· H. Held, A. Lvovsky, X. Wei, Y. R. Shen, Bulk contribution from isotropic media in surface sum-frequency generation, Phys. Rev. B 66, 205110 (2002).

· Y. L. Yeh, C. Zhang, H. Held, S. H. Lin, Y. R. Shen: On the surface structure of non-hydrogen bonding liquids, J. Chem. Phys. 114, 1837-1843 (2001).

· X. Wei, S.-C. Hong, A. I. Lvovsky, H. Held, Y. R. Shen, Evaluation of surface vs. bulk contributions in sum-frequency vibrational spectroscopy using reflection and transmission geometries, Journ. Phys. Chem. B, 104, 3349-3354 (2000).

· H. Held and W. Schweizer: Beyond nearest-neighbor spacing distributions: A new indicator for core-induced chaos, Phys. Rev. Lett. 84, 1160-1163 (2000).

· H. Held, J. Schlichter, G. Raithel, H. Walther: Observation of level statistics and Heisenberg-time orbits in Diamagnetic Rydberg Atoms, Europhys. Lett., 43, 392-397 (1998).

· G. Raithel, H. Held, L. Marmet, H. Walther, Rubidium Rydberg atoms in strong static fields, J. Phys. B 27, 2849-2866 (1994).

· L. Marmet, H. Held, G. Raithel, J. A. Yeazell, H.Walther, Observation of Quasi-Landau Wave Packets, Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3779-3782 (1994).

· J. A. Yeazell, G. Raithel, L. Marmet, H. Held, H. Walther, Observation of Wave Packet Motion along Quasi-Landau Orbits, Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 2884- 2887 (1993).



2.2 Weitere Beiträge

· H. Held, J. Schlichter, H. Walther: Quantum Chaos in Rydberg Atoms (pp. 1-18), in J. Parisi, S. C. Müller, and W. Zimmermann (eds.): A Perspective Look at Nonlinear Media in Physics, Chemistry, and Biology, Berlin, Springer (1998).

· H. Held, L. Marmet, H.Walther, Observation of Quasi-LandauWave Packets, Proc. XII. Int. Conf. on Laser Spectroscopy, 289-290, Capri (1995).





· H. Held, L. Marmet, H.Walther, Observation of Quasi-LandauWave Packets, Proc. XII. Int. Conf. on Laser Spectroscopy, 289-290, Capri (1995).

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