3.9. Patt

Keynote Presentations from the 2nd ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq 1 - 13 September 2007

Abstract

Scientists struggle to figure out how best to communicate uncertainty, for several reasons. First, it is often problematic how to quantify (or qualify) the uncertainty in their own scientific results. Second, they are often unsure of the decision-making context within which their information will be used, and hence what uncertainty is necessary to communicate. Third, they are often unsure of what types of language and imagery will be understandable and memorable to decision-makers, and indeed whether uncertainty can be understood at all. In this presentation, I will discuss some of the reasons for attempting to communicate uncertainty, and some of the things to expect to go wrong. As part of this, I will highlight different models of decision-making under uncertainty, and what these imply for communication strategies. My conclusion will be consider the communication of uncertainty as an act of storytelling: describing the processes by which particular people learned about the extent of uncertainty, and how they were able to characterize it.

Recommended background literature on this presentation:

• Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124-1131 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
• Patt A, Suarez P, Gwata C (2005) Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 102:12623-12628, doi 10.1073/pnas.0506125102
• Patt A (2007) Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty. Global environmental Change 17:37-46, doi 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.10.002