Climate map explorer - Drought frequency

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Note

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General information

Droughts are periods of time where precipitation falls beneath a threshold until it rises again above an average level.

For the projected precipitation for the selected timeframe (2001-2030, 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2041-2070 or 2071-2098, respectively) the number of drought events has been counted. The same has been accomplished for the years 1961-1991(the baseline period). The map depicts the difference between the number of drought events in the selected timeframe and the number of drought events in the baseline period. Positive values indicate an increase in the number of droughts (red colors) while negative values indicate fewer droughts (blue colors).

Drought frequency maps are available for the following GCMS: MPI ECHAM5, UKMO HadCM3, GFDL CM2.1, MIUB ECHO-G and NCAR CCSM3.0 and the following SRES scenarios: A1B, B1 and A2

3 months scale
In these maps at each point in time the accumulated precipitation sum of the past 3 months is considered while valuating it as low or high. Be aware that this map alone has limited informative value since two short droughts may exhibit a lower impact than one prolonged drought, but are counted as two while one prolonged drought is counted as one.
12 months scale
In these maps at each point in time the accumulated precipitation sum of the past 12 months is considered while valuating it as low or high. Be aware that this map alone has limited informative value since two short droughts may exhibit a lower impact than one prolonged drought, but are counted as two while one prolonged drought is counted as one.

Please see also the precipitation and temperature difference maps, which grant more basic access to climate information:
the map explorer for RCP scenario projections.
the map explorer for AR4 SRES scenario projections.

Methodology

3 months scale
Firstly, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was computed on a 3 month scale. Then, drought events were counted. This was accomplished for the 2001-2030 period and the 1961-1990 period and the difference of both is mapped. (Please refer to the glossary for terms such as SPI and drought.)
12 months scale
Firstly, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was computed on a 12 month scale. Then, drought events were counted. This was accomplished for the 2001-2030 period and the 1961-1990 period and the difference of both is mapped. (Please refer to the glossary for terms such as SPI and drought.)

Data Sources

DimensionDataset nameUnitScenariosResolutionSource
precipitationIPCC GCM output (MPI ECHAM5, UKMO HadCM3, GFDL CM2.1, MIUB ECHO-G, NCAR CCSM3)mmA1B, B1 and A2GCM resolutionIPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/); WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Database (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/)