General information

This map displays the projected absolute amount of CO₂ emissions in 2050 on sub-national level (grid cell) assuming the Annex I Convergence scenario (see methodology) regarding the future development of countries' per capita CO₂-emissions. Each grid cell's color reflects the absolute amount of CO₂ emitted by the activities in it (more details see Methodology). The colors indicating the CO₂ emissions per grid cell range from yellow (low CO₂ emissions) via brown to black (high CO₂ emissions). The exact values are indicated in the map's legend. A total of 116 country per capita CO₂ emissions were extrapolated for this map.

Methodology

National CO₂ per capita emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production were retrieved from The World Bank database of World Development Indicators for 209 countries. The time series are from 1960-2003. The country time series were extrapolated linearly or nonlinearly into the future from 2004-2050, depending on which had the higher correlation coefficient. The choice of linearity or nonlinearity was made on the base of correlation coefficient values and eyesight with respect to the nonlinear fits. If the fit projected negative values for the future it was either dismissed, or the linear fit was taken instead – given that it had a sufficient correlation coefficient. Only series with correlation coefficients larger than 0.5 given a linear or non-linear fit were extrapolated. Nevertheless, countries with implausible fits with this attribute were omitted. Future extrapolated values below 0.01 were set to 0.01. A total of 116 country time series were extrapolated on the base of the given criteria.

After the extrapolation of CO₂ per capita values into the future on national level, the national values were transformed into a grid file by assigning each national level to its corresponding grid cell on a 0.5°x0.5° grid template. In this template each grid cell was represented by its country code. With the help of this code it was determined to which country the cell belonged and in turn the corresponding CO₂ value was assigned to this cell.

In a given or extrapolated time slice, the total CO₂ emissions per grid cell were calculated by multiplying the country value per cap by the population per grid cell. Difference maps were calculated by subtracting one gridded emissions time slice by another.

For 13 countries the extrapolations were performed case by case. Please contact us for details.

The gridded population data denotes total population per grid cell on a 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. It is based on 2000 estimates, from which on it is projected based on the UN medium variant population change scenario. This UN variant has a correlation of 1.00 with the population development scenario driving the SRES A1 scenario family.

Scenarios

1. Business as Usual
   All selected trend fits were extrapolated with the appropriate fitting function (either linear or nonlinear) with no further function ramification, unless values undershot 0.01 t CO₂/cap.
2. Annex I Convergence
   Abiding by the "equal future point" approach, this scenario has all OECD countries CO₂/cap emissions converge to 2t /cap by 2050, starting from 2010. Each countries trajectory to the common goal is linear. Non-Annex countries are extrapolated as in 1).
3. Annex I Convergence + Non-Annex stable from 2020 onwards
   Abiding by the "equal future point" approach, this scenario has all OECD countries CO₂ per capita emissions converge to 2t /cap by 2050, starting from 2010. Each countries trajectory to the common goal is linear. Non-Annex countries are extrapolated as in 1) with the difference that they stabilize their CO₂ per capita emissions by 2020.