Details: increased pressure on biodiversity loss

impact chain for tropical coastal areas / sea-level rise (click nodes to view details):
selected case study results:
Case study reference
Spatial context
Impact description (case study)
Case study recommendations
Wetzel, F. T., Kissling, W. D., Beissmann, H., & Penn, D. J. (2012). Future climate change driven sea-level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity. Global Change Biology, 18(9), 2707-2719. Southeast Asia People will have to migrate due to the fact that coastal areas will get inundated and shift their agricultural activities elsewhere. This will increase the pressure on biodiversity and the environment.
Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species was assessed. Approximately 3-32% of island coastal zones could be lost (primary effects) leading to the migration of 8-52 million people. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percentage of loss (in comparison to primary effects) for at least 10-18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22-46% in a maximum range loss scenario. Some species will be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Island species of Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on Indo-Malaysian islands are more vulnerable to secondary effects (as SLR will potentially create 7-48 million refugees).
Findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and consequently, both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.

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